IGI Logo

* Passenger vehicles: Domestic passenger vehicle industry volumes improved by 12% yoy in 4QFY24. Maruti Suzuki volumes increased by 12% yoy in 4QFY24. Tata Motors and M&M volumes improved by 16/27% respectively yoy in 4QFY24, whereas Hyundai and Kia Motors volumes declined by 1/13% respectively. UV segment volumes increased by 31% yoy and SUV mix improved by 700 bps yoy in 4QFY24. In terms of market share, MSIL gained 40 bps market share yoy and Tata Motors gained 40 bps market share yoy in 4QFY24.

* Two-wheelers: Two wheeler industry volumes improved by 26% yoy in 4QFY24 due to recovery in rural demand and channel filling ahead of Navratra festival. In the motorcycle segment,  Hero MotoCorp volumes increased by 7% yoy in 4QFY24, whereas HMSI volumes improved to 3X as the company ramped down production to transition to BS6 2.0 in 4QFY23. Scooter segment volumes improved by 22% yoy in 4QFY24. In the scooter segment, HMCL volumes improved by 22% yoy in 4QFY24. RE lost 80 bps market share yoy in the motorcycle segment led by market share decline of 140 bps in premium segment in 4QFY24. HMSI has lost 220 bps market share yoy in the scooter segment in 4QFY24.

* Light commercial vehicles: LCV volumes declined by 2% yoy in 4QFY24. M&M volumes increased by 4% yoy and Tata Motors volumes declined by 10% yoy in 4QFY24. Ashok Leyland’s LCV volumes declined by 5% yoy in 4QFY24. M&M gained 220 bps market share on a yoy basis  and Tata Motors lost 290 bps market share on a yoy basis in 4QFY24. MSIL lost 70 bps market share yoy in 4QFY24.

* Medium and heavy commercial vehicles: MHCV volumes declined by 7% yoy in 4QFY24. Tata Motors and Eicher Motors volumes declined by 7 and 4% yoy respectively in 4QFY24. Ashok Leyland volumes declined by 9% yoy in 4QFY24. Tata Motors market share remained flat on a yoy basis and Eicher Motors gained 60 bps market share yoy in 4QFY24. Ashok Leyland market share declined by 70 bps on a yoy basis in 4QFY24.

* State-wise demand trends in 3QFY24: Our analysis of state-wise demand trends for 3QFY24 reflects that (1) decent sales growth in PV segment despite festive season due to higher inventory levels, (2) robust demand trends in 2W segment on account of recovery un rural demand and festive season, (3) steady demand growth in M&HCV segment, (4) modest growth  in LCV segment demand due to higher CNG prices, (5) decline in scooter  mix on a qoq basis and (6) M&M in PV and LCV segments, Bajaj Auto in 2W segment and Eicher in M&HCV segment posted maximum market share gain in 3QFY24.

* New launches: Tata Motors launched Punch EV and Hyundai launched Creta refresh variants in January 2024. Also, M&M launched XUV 3XO, a refresh of XUV300,  in April, 2024.  We expect more launches in the SUV space further increasing the competitive intensity.

* Prices: The prices of 2W motorcycles, scooters and passengers cars remained stable for most of the OEMs during the quarter in 4QFY24

* Global trends: Global PV volumes grew 7% yoy in 1QCY24. China PV volumes increased by 16% yoy whereas US PV volumes were up by 9% yoy in 1QCY24. Japan volumes declined by 18% yoy whereas EU volume improved by 7% yoy in 1QCY24. We expect a stable growth in global PV volumes led by (1) receding recessionary pressures, (2) improvement in supply situation, (3) softening of inflationary pressures, and (4) possible rate cuts by Federal bank. EV sales started to witness slowdown in growth a sequential decline in EV volumes across China, USA and Europe.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer