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Gold

Gold settled sharply higher by 1.99% at Rs1,51,820, supported by softer U.S. inflation data, easing oil prices and reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Markets currently see a 55% probability of a September rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while geopolitical uncertainty remains after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the Iran war could end soon. Central-bank buying continues to provide a strong structural support. China’s central bank increased gold reserves for the 21st consecutive month, adding the most bullion since October 2023 and lifting holdings to 76.08 million fine troy ounces in July from 75.44 million in June. China’s gold imports also surged 89.1% year-on-year to 864.95 tonnes during January-June 2026. UBS expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027. Global demand remained stable, with Q2 gold demand at 1,268.9 tonnes, while central-bank purchases jumped to 289 tonnes from 57 tonnes in Q1, offsetting 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. However, Indian demand remained subdued, with Q2 demand falling 6% year-on-year to 131.4 tonnes and net imports declining 23% to 98.1 tonnes. London vault holdings rose 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.24% to 10,436 while prices gained Rs2,962. Gold has support at Rs1,49,800, below which Rs1,47,775 may be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs1,53,215, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,54,605.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147775-154605.

* Gold gained amid softer U.S. inflation data and easing oil prices, prompted traders to scale back expectations for further Fed interest rate hikes.

* U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he believed the war with Iran would be over soon.

* PBOC extended its gold-buying run to a 21st consecutive month, with reserves rising to 76.08 million fine troy ounces at the end of July from 75.44 million a month earlier.

Silver

Silver settled sharply higher by 2.49% at Rs2,31,466, supported by reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening after weak U.S. employment data. U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, while significant downward revisions to the previous two months signaled a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, but declining labor-force participation added to concerns over employment conditions. The softer labor outlook reduced expectations for a September rate hike, pushing yields lower and benefiting precious metals. Meanwhile, easing fuel and natural gas prices and progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz helped reduce energy-market risks. However, industrial demand continued to support silver, with Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surging 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, reflecting expanding demand from solar-panel and electricity-grid production. Physical market developments remained mixed. London vaults held 28,082 tonnes of silver at the end of June, up 1.7% month-on-month and valued at $53.1 billion. In India, silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to $75.57 million, while volumes fell 94% to 33 tonnes, the lowest since February 2023. Import restrictions and higher duties of 15% from 6% weighed heavily on inflows, despite record annual imports of $12 billion in FY2025/26. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.74% to 11,177 while prices gained Rs5,630. Silver has support at Rs2,27,470, below which Rs2,23,475 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs2,35,470, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs2,39,475.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 223475-239475.

* Silver rose as markets reconsidered the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike rates this year.

* New jobs data showed an unexpected drop in payrolls, limiting the leeway for higher rates to attend inflationary pressures.

* Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July And unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled higher by 0.64% at Rs7,424, supported by renewed concerns over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and potential Iranian restrictions on vessels using the strategic waterway. Iran reviewed a bill to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from the strait and is considering fees of 5%-7% of cargo values, while Oman is discussing fees of around 3%. The Strait normally handles nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying he believed the war could end soon. Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to remain within an $80-$90 per barrel range until confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or significant escalation in attacks, with fair value near $80. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production declined around 2% in May to 13.71 million barrels per day, while exports reached a record 5.73 million bpd. U.S. crude inventories increased by 2.479 million barrels to 407 million barrels for the week ended July 31, against expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel draw. Cushing stocks rose 2.356 million barrels, while refinery runs declined by 183,000 bpd. Gasoline inventories fell 1.643 million barrels and distillate stocks declined 3.473 million barrels. OPEC+ also approved a September production increase of around 188,000 bpd, completing the planned rollback of voluntary output cuts. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 2.13% to 8,899 while prices gained Rs47. Crude oil has support at Rs7,299, below which Rs7,175 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs7,528, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs7,633.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7175-7633.

* Crude oil prices edged higher on further concerns surrounding the reopening of the Strait ‌of Hormuz .

* Iran is seeking fees of between 5% and 7% of the price of cargoes from ships using the strait.

* U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he believed that the war would be over soon.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 0.75% at Rs255.6, supported by a modest increase in flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and expectations of stronger weather-driven demand. Forecasts point to mostly above-normal temperatures through August 21, which could boost power-sector gas consumption. However, the upside remained limited by bearish storage data and continued strong domestic production. U.S. energy firms added 33 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage during the week ended July 31, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf and the five-year average injection of 23 bcf. The build was also significantly higher than the 13 bcf injection recorded during the same week last year. Total inventories rose to 3.117 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.4% below last year but 6.7% above the five-year average. The previous week recorded a 28 bcf injection. Production remained near record levels, with Lower 48 dry gas output averaging 110.6 bcfd in August compared with a record 110.7 bcfd in July. Meanwhile, LNG feedgas demand weakened, with flows to nine major export plants averaging 16.9 bcfd versus 17.2 bcfd in July, partly due to reduced operations at Freeport LNG and Golden Pass. EIA expects U.S. production to rise to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are projected at 17.4 bcfd and 18.6 bcfd respectively. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.17% to 60,889 while prices gained Rs1.9. Natural gas has support at Rs252.3, below which Rs248.9 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs258, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs260.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 248.9-260.3.

* Natural gas gained on a small rise in flows to liquefied natural gas export plants in recent days.

* EIA says utilities add 33 bcf of gas to storage in week ended July 31

* Feedgas to major LNG plants fell from July and stayed well below April's peak

Copper

Copper settled lower by 0.76% at Rs1,365.5, pressured by a 1.1% rise in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories and weaker Chinese manufacturing activity. China’s July manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low, while the Politburo signaled reliance on existing policy measures rather than broad-based stimulus, raising concerns over near-term industrial demand. However, downside remained limited by tightening supply conditions. The Democratic Republic of Congo immediately banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates, with one-year waivers possible under strategic circumstances. LME copper inventories fell to 226,650 tonnes, the lowest since mid-February, while the LME cash premium over three-month copper widened to $130 per tonne, indicating tighter nearby availability. COMEX stocks increased to 720,439 short tons as tariff uncertainty continued attracting metal into the United States. Supply growth remained mixed. Codelco paused an expansion project at El Teniente due to increased seismic risks, while Glencore’s H1 copper production rose 15% year-on-year to 397,000 tonnes and First Quantum’s Zambian output increased 5% to 184,929 tonnes. The global refined copper market recorded an 18,000-tonne surplus in May after a 145,000-tonne deficit in April. China’s July unwrought copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes, while refined copper production reached a record 1.334 million tonnes, up 2.5%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.87% to 10,410 while prices fell Rs10.5. Copper has support at Rs1,357.2, below which Rs1,349 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs1,380.9, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs1,396.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1349-1396.4.

* Copper dropped as copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.1 % from last Friday.

* However, downside seen limited as the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports raised supply concerns.

* China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell 11.5% from a year earlier to 425,000 metric tons in July.

Zinc

Zinc settled lower by 1.46% at Rs389.1, pressured by profit booking after recent gains driven by easing U.S.-Iran tensions. However, downside remained limited by tightening nearby availability, with LME available zinc stocks falling to 73,825 tonnes, the lowest since December. The LME cash contract traded around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward, while the August contract premium exceeded $63, highlighting persistent backwardation and near-term supply tightness. Supply concerns were further supported by heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China, raising risks to mining, smelting and transportation. A mine in Southwest China is expected to reduce August concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes of contained zinc, while a Central China smelter plans maintenance that could cut output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Global production trends remained mixed, with Glencore’s H1 zinc output declining 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes, while Boliden’s concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 55,500 tonnes in Q2, down 1%. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, indicating strong smelter operations. Shanghai warehouse inventories increased marginally by 0.1%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 12.94% to 2,752 while prices fell Rs5.75. Zinc has support at Rs386.1, below which Rs383 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs394.9, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs400.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 383-400.6.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid easing US Iran tensions and LME zinc stocks were at lowest since December.

* The global zinc market surplus declined to 8,700 metric tons in May from 43,400 tons in April.

* China's net imports of refined zinc collapsed by 79% year-on-year to just 38,000 tons in January to June.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 0.39% at Rs350.55, supported by critically low overseas inventories and expectations of supply disruptions from China’s crackdown on illegal capacity. LME-registered aluminium stocks fell further to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level this century, highlighting tightening availability. Supply concerns also strengthened as heavy rainfall and flooding in China’s Sichuan province threatened smelter operations, hydropower availability and transportation. Global supply remained constrained, with aluminium production outside China falling 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, while Gulf production dropped to 332,000 tonnes from 507,000 tonnes a year earlier. Alcoa also lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. However, upside remained limited as Middle Eastern production gradually recovered and Chinese exports stayed elevated. Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a three-and-a-half-month outage. China’s July aluminium and semi-finished product exports stood at 643,000 tonnes, up 18.6% year-on-year, while January-July exports rose 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Japanese aluminium inventories declined 7.8% month-on-month to 220,300 tonnes, offering additional support. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 20.54% to 5,329 while prices gained Rs1.35. Aluminium has support at Rs348.3, below which Rs346.1 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs353.1, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs355.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 346.1-355.7.

* Aluminum gains amid all-time low overseas inventories, and expectations of supply disruptions from China's crackdown on illegal capacity.

* Support also seen amid concerns that heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province could disrupt smelter operations.

* Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled lower by 1.81% at Rs20,844, pressured by profit booking as the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over dry weather and crop failure. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have ensured better water availability during the vegetative phase, supporting expectations of improved crop conditions. In Nizamabad, spot prices declined 1.62% to Rs20,398.9. The outlook remains mixed as turmeric acreage is expected to rise 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares. Good rainfall over major growing regions has accelerated sowing, while farmers are likely to expand acreage as prices remain near multi-year highs. However, carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, keeping overall availability structurally tighter. Continued rainfall will remain crucial, particularly amid El Nino concerns. Export demand remained broadly stable. India’s turmeric exports fell marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May 2026, while April-May exports stood at 33,999 tonnes versus 34,162 tonnes a year earlier. Shipments to China, Oman, Yemen and Italy recorded strong growth, supporting demand for quality turmeric. Meanwhile, stricter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations caused rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, widening discounts for commercial-grade turmeric while supporting certified supplies. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 35.91% to 16,275 while prices declined Rs384. Turmeric has support at Rs20,068, below which Rs19,290 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs21,512, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs22,178.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19290-22178.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as revival of monsoon activity in mid-July eased dry-weather fears.

* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.

* NCDEX raised additional/special margins by 7.50% on turmeric futures contracts to curb excessive volatility.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20398.9 Rupees dropped by -1.62 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled lower by 1.01% at Rs21,085, pressured by aggressive farmer selling to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing. Favorable weather in North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating arrivals and deliveries. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced procurement urgency, while large industrial spice grinders remain cautious and are avoiding bulk purchases. In Unjha, spot prices declined 0.48% to Rs20,730.15. Despite the weak undertone, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds. Arrivals across Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight disease in key Gujarat pockets has affected crop quality and quantity. Production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season against 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Global competition remains important, with production estimates of 70,000-80,000 tonnes in China, 9,000-10,000 tonnes in Syria, 10,000-11,000 tonnes in Turkey and 10,000-12,000 tonnes in Afghanistan. Export demand remained weak, with India’s May jeera exports falling 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes. April-May exports declined 22% to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Yemen, Mexico and Kenya increased sharply, while European and North American buyers returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Geopolitical risks and cautious Chinese buying continue to restrict broader demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 6.41% to 4,731 while prices declined Rs215. Jeera has support at Rs20,920, below which Rs20,760 could be tested. Resistance is placed at Rs21,250, and a sustained move above this level may push prices toward Rs21,420.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20760-21420.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20730.15 Rupees dropped by -0.48 percent.

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