Cottonseed Oilcake Report As On 07th August 2026 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Why the market moved every step of the way — from last year's crop conditions through this year's run to Rs 3,988
Concentrated Recent Acceleration
The 3-month return (16.07%) exceeds the 6-month return (13.36%) — the gain has come in a sharp recent leg, not a slow grind.
* USDA cut India's 2025-26 cotton crop 3% to 23.8 million bales on uneven monsoon rain and low-yield unapproved hybrid seed.
* Winter (Dec–Jan) brought the seasonally strongest cattle-feed demand window, against an already tight cottonseed stock position.
* March 2026 torrential rains across Maharashtra and the south revived crop-damage concerns just as the Cup & Handle breakout extended.
* The move has been driven primarily by a genuine raw-material tightness building through the crushing belt of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Punjab, where cottonseed arrivals fell short of normal seasonal volumes even before this season's sowing shortfall became evident.
* This structural, supply-led narrative is what carried the market from the Rs 2,850–2,900 zone in November 2025 through the Cup & Handle breakout to this month's high of Rs 3,988 — in line with Kedia Advisory original Rs 4,000–4,070 target zone.
* Cup & Handle target achieved High of Rs 3,988 vs. the 161.8% extension target of Rs 4,011–4,070.
* Bearish harmonic forming at the top A harmonic structure has completed at the Rs 3,988 swing high (point D).
* Stochastic deeply overbought Reading of 90.84 / 87.91 — every prior instance on this chart preceded a pullback
Reversal Signal Emerging
* Our Rs 2,850 long call achieved Rs 4,000, delivering approximately 40% gains for disciplined investors.
* Bearish Harmonic completion near Rs 4,185 signals exhaustion and raises the probability of reversal.
* Existing long positions should consider profit-booking, as risk-reward has turned unfavourable at current levels.
* A break below Rs 3,930 may accelerate declines towards Rs 3,860 and Rs 3,665 support zones.
* Deeper correction could extend towards Rs 3,520–Rs 3,195 if bearish momentum strengthens in coming weeks.
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