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Gold

Gold settled 0.51% lower at Rs. 146,519 as elevated oil prices intensified inflation concerns, strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy, while a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields added pressure. Persistent hostilities in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, alongside Iran’s continued assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, kept oil prices elevated. Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to hold interest rates unchanged next week, while pricing in approximately a 94% probability of a December rate hike. Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signalling the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting, noting that hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his economic assessment, although traders further reduced expectations of an October rate hike. The European Central Bank is expected to deliver at least one additional 25-basis-point rate increase this year, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that underlying inflation was approaching the 2% target, leaving scope for further tightening. According to CFTC data for the week ended October 13, COMEX gold speculative net long positions declined by 3,741 contracts to 111,079, indicating reduced bullish positioning. Physical demand showed mixed trends, with Indian gold premiums returning to as much as $7 per ounce as lower prices encouraged jewellery purchases, compared with discounts of up to $6 previously. However, India's September gold imports plunged to $1.8 billion from $9.6 billion a year earlier. Chinese bullion premiums ranged between $4 and $13 per ounce, while investment demand remained weak in Japan. China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces in September from 76.73 million ounces. Meanwhile, London vaults held 9,821 tonnes of gold at September-end, up 1.96% month on month. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification, although a more hawkish Fed could trigger a correction towards $4,070 before a recovery to $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 0.42% to 16,829 contracts alongside a Rs. 747 decline in prices. Support is placed at Rs. 145,750, followed by Rs. 144,980, while resistance stands at Rs. 147,320, above which prices could test Rs. 148,120.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 144980-148120.

• Gold prices fell as elevated oil prices heightened inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy.

• Prices also faced pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields.

• Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, with markets pricing in roughly a 94% probability of a rate hike in December.

• COMEX gold speculative net longs fell 3,741 contracts to 111,079 - CFTC

Silver

Silver settled 0.79% higher at Rs. 211,485, supported by a decline in US 10-year Treasury yields to near one-month lows following weaker housing data, while investors assessed persistent inflationary pressures ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on October 27–28. US housing starts fell 5.2% in September, while pending home sales dropped to a record low, highlighting the impact of elevated mortgage rates on housing demand. Although recent Fed commentary indicated limited urgency for immediate tightening, markets are pricing in a 94% probability of a December rate hike. Hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI readings reinforced inflation concerns, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee describing the latest inflation data as discouraging, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that deteriorating inflation expectations could require more aggressive rate increases. Investors are also monitoring the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report for further policy signals. According to CFTC data for the week ended October 13, COMEX silver speculative net long positions declined by 1,874 contracts to 5,735, indicating reduced bullish positioning. Meanwhile, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus reported that the global silver market is heading towards its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the shortfall projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker industrial and jewellery consumption. Conversely, coin and bar demand is projected to increase 18%, supported by recovering US investment demand. Global silver supply is expected to decrease 2%, while 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting continuing structural tightness despite improving market liquidity. Silver holdings in London vaults reached 28,985 tonnes at September-end, up 1.95% month on month. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 1.45% to 19,522 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 1,657. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 208,570, followed by Rs. 205,650, while resistance is seen at Rs. 213,920, above which prices could test Rs. 216,360.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 205650-216360.

• Silver rose as yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell, hovering near one-month lows, following weaker housing data.

• US Fed interest-rate decision, PCE data next week

• Traders largely expect Fed to leave rates unchanged

• COMEX silver speculative net longs fell 1,874 contracts to 5,735

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 1.53% lower at Rs. 9,311 as profit booking emerged following reports that the US and Iran had given preliminary approval to a mediation proposal, easing some geopolitical risk concerns. However, persistent hostilities in the Middle East continued to threaten supply, with Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and commercial vessel incidents disrupting Gulf crude flows. According to Kpler, Gulf crude flows fell to approximately 8.5 million barrels per day on a seven-day average last week from more than 20 million barrels per day previously, amid at least 10 confirmed commercial vessel incidents. US President Donald Trump also waived key sanctions and tariffs on Russia, potentially allowing increased Russian fuel exports. On the inventory front, US crude stocks declined by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in the week ended October 9, significantly exceeding expectations for a 288,000-barrel draw. Distillate inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels to 208.3 million barrels. Refinery utilisation rose to 93.5%, and crude stocks at Cushing increased by 1.9 million barrels. China’s September domestic crude production rose 2.2% year on year to 18.21 million metric tons. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 outlook on expectations of inventory rebuilding and deferred demand recovery. OPEC also reported higher September production across the wider OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although it remained below year-earlier levels, while exports rose to 5.3 million barrels per day. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 1.73% to 13,313 contracts alongside a Rs. 145 fall in prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 9,030, followed by Rs. 8,745, while resistance is seen at Rs. 9,625, above which prices could test Rs. 9,945.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8745-9945.

• Crude oil dropped after reports that the US and Iran gave preliminary approval to a mediation proposal.

• US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia that may lead to more ‌Russian fuel exports.

• Egypt says ready to back Saudi Arabia in war against Houthis

• US crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.37% lower at 316.6 as forecasts for milder October temperatures reduced heating demand expectations, outweighing support from lower-than-expected storage builds, robust LNG exports and declining domestic production. Mild weather is expected to persist through late October, while El Niño-related concerns continue to weigh on the winter demand outlook. Average gas flows to nine major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September. Meanwhile, Lower 48 dry gas output averaged 111.3 billion cubic feet per day, down from record highs of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September. US natural gas inventories increased by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 9, below market expectations of 76 billion cubic feet and the previous week's 85 billion cubic feet injection. The build was also below the five-year seasonal average of 90 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.567 trillion cubic feet, standing 3.9% below year-earlier levels but 1.3% above the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to increase from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Domestic consumption is forecast to rise from 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 92.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. LNG exports are projected to reach 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Despite rising demand, stronger supply growth is expected to keep the market comfortable. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 NYMEX natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing higher Permian production and projected supply growth exceeding demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. The bank expects meaningful market tightening only closer to 2029. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased 25.66% to 23,389 contracts alongside a Rs. 4.4 decline in prices. Support is placed at 314.00, followed by 311.50, while resistance is seen at 319.50, above which prices could test 322.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 311.50-322.50.

• Natural gas prices fell as forecasts for milder October weather, outweighing support from below-expected storage builds.

• EIA reports 67 bcf storage build for week ended October 9

• Pipeline disruptions and Gulf shut-ins linked to Hurricane Isaias curbed supply

• Storage surplus to five-year norm narrowed to 1.3% from 2.0% a week earlier

Copper

Copper settled 0.43% higher at Rs. 1,398.65, supported by swelling US inventories and a more bullish price outlook from Goldman Sachs, which raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400 per tonne. The bank expects copper market deficits outside the United States of 950,000 tonnes in 2026 and 220,000 tonnes in 2027, citing weaker mine supply and tightening regional balances. BHP reported a 19% quarterly decline in copper production to 400,700 tonnes due to disruptions in Chile and Australia, although it maintained its annual guidance. Meanwhile, China's economic growth rebounded from three-year lows in the third quarter, supported by stronger exports, but persistent weakness in the property market continued to weigh on demand prospects. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month on month to 461,000 tonnes in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories increased 25.9% from the previous Friday. Supply developments remained mixed, as workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine ended their strike, while the company reported a 7% increase in third-quarter copper production. Chilean state miner Codelco recorded an 8.9% year-on-year increase in August output to 101,700 tonnes, whereas production at BHP-controlled Escondida fell 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi output declined 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. Peru's August copper production decreased 5% year on year to 230,676 tonnes, although cumulative January-August output increased 1.2% to 1.8 million tonnes. However, the International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, widening from approximately 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Refined copper production is forecast to rise 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while apparent usage is expected to increase 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, supported by electrification, renewable energy, data centres and semiconductor manufacturing. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 3.85% to 6,487 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 6. Support is placed at Rs. 1,389.50, followed by Rs. 1,381, while resistance stands at Rs. 1,405, above which prices could test Rs. 1,412.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1381.00-1412.00.

• Copper prices rose on supported by swelling US inventories and a more bullish price outlook from Goldman Sachs.

• Goldman Sachs ‌raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 a ton and its 2027 average to $15,400, citing ‌weaker mine supply.

• Available copper stocks in LME rose to a two-month high of 147,450 tons after 8,225 tons of inflows into US warehouses.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.68% higher at Rs. 424.25, supported by tight near-term availability, as London Metal Exchange cash contracts traded at a premium to three-month contracts, signalling immediate supply constraints. Declining zinc inventories in China, the world's largest consumer, and a 1.5% reduction in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks from the previous Friday further supported prices. Supply concerns persisted in Western markets, where refined zinc production fell 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands added uncertainty over potential production losses. China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September, although mine output is expected to increase in October as operations resume following accident-related disruptions and safety inspections. However, prospects for rising Chinese concentrate availability and expanding global mine production limited the upside. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market is expected to shift from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027. Global refined zinc production is forecast to increase 2% to 14.21 million tonnes in 2027, while mine production is projected to rise 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Demand is expected to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes, supported by stronger consumption in Europe, India and the United States. However, China's zinc demand growth is projected to slow to 0.3% in 2027 from 1.8% this year due to reduced real estate investment, although manufactured goods exports should support industrial activity. China's net imports of refined zinc plunged 79% year on year to 38,000 tonnes during January-June, reflecting increased domestic smelting capacity and growing self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of its 2026 fiscal year, up 32% year on year. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 1% to 1,820 contracts alongside a Rs. 2.85 rise in prices. Support is placed at Rs. 420.50, followed by Rs. 416.50, while resistance is seen at Rs. 427, above which prices could test Rs. 429.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 416.50-429.50.

• Zinc gained as LME cash contracts traded at a premium to three-month contracts, signalling tightness in immediate availability.

• China’s zinc social inventory declined, reducing the overhang in the world’s largest consumer market.

• Chinese mine output is expected to rise month-on-month in October as operations resume at mines previously disrupted by accidents and safety inspections.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.23% lower at Rs. 326.40 as expectations of rising global supply and record Chinese production outweighed support from declining exchange inventories and historically low London Metal Exchange stocks. China’s primary aluminium production reached a record quarterly high of 11.84 million tonnes in the July-September period, up 2.2% year on year and 0.5% quarter on quarter, as smelters maintained high operating rates despite the government-imposed capacity ceiling. September production increased 3.1% year on year to 3.91 million tonnes, while output during January-September rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes. However, global refined aluminium production remained under pressure, with International Aluminium Institute data showing September primary production at 6.014 million tonnes, down from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier. Estimated Chinese output declined to 3.75 million tonnes in September from 3.87 million tonnes in August. Supply disruptions in the Gulf region continued to affect production, although easing passage restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz improved supply prospects. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s new smelting capacity is ramping up, with aluminium exports exceeding 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year, helping offset regional supply losses. China’s primary aluminium production is projected to reach 45.7 million tonnes in 2027, up 0.9% year on year, while approximately 6 million tonnes of annual smelting capacity outside China is expected to be added between 2026 and 2028. Consequently, the global market could move into a surplus exceeding 1 million tonnes in 2027. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting changing supply conditions. On the inventory front, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks fell 11% from the previous Friday, while London Metal Exchange opening stocks declined to 238,375 tonnes, their lowest level of the 21st century. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 0.72% to 3,849 contracts alongside a Rs. 0.75 fall in prices. Support is placed at Rs. 323.50, followed by Rs. 320.50, while resistance stands at Rs. 328, above which prices could test Rs. 329.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 320.50-329.50.

• Aluminium dropped as China's primary aluminium production hit a record quarterly high over July to September

• China aluminium production up 3.1 % to 3.91 mln metric tons in Sept – stats bureau

• Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11% from last Friday

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.67% lower at Rs. 24,904 as profit booking emerged after recent gains driven by renewed demand, tight spot availability and reduced stockist selling. Carry-forward stocks have declined to approximately 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall supply buffer. Production concerns persist due to drought conditions in Karnataka, where a joint survey by the state horticulture and revenue departments and KSDMA estimated turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 18,824 lakh, against total state cultivation of around 18,000–20,000 hectares. Concerns over El Niño-related dry spells and moisture availability during early crop development have further supported prices. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, alongside replenished reservoirs and completed re-sowing in parts of North Karnataka, has eased immediate crop concerns. Despite current supply tightness, estimates suggest Indian turmeric production could increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Farmer selling during the current harvest window and improved weather conditions could limit further gains. Export data showed Indian turmeric shipments declining 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes last year. Export growth remained strong in several destinations, including Turkey, where shipments increased 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka, up 644% to 156 tonnes, and Nigeria, up 983% to 69 tonnes. Demand for Integrated Pest Management-certified turmeric from European Union buyers continues to support compliant grades, although stricter maximum residue limits have pressured non-compliant commercial lots. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices declined 0.11% to Rs. 22,803.30. Technically, turmeric is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 5.5% to 16,675 contracts alongside a Rs. 424 fall in prices. Support is placed at Rs. 24,510, followed by Rs. 24,120, while resistance is seen at Rs. 25,490, above which prices could test Rs. 26,080.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 24120-26080.

• Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

• Pressure was there amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22803.3 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 2.43% lower at Rs. 26,485 as profit booking emerged after a recent rally driven by tight nearby supplies and expectations of improved export demand. Farmers had been withholding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window, while declining arrivals in Unjha and Rajasthan highlighted tightening availability of premium-quality, export-grade bold seeds. However, farmer selling to generate cash ahead of the upcoming season, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice grinders limited the upside. Production estimates indicate Indian cumin output could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has reduced China's production estimate to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. Nevertheless, improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria could pressure Indian export premiums. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have also affected crop quality and harvestable output. Export demand remained a concern, as India's jeera exports fell 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026 from 13,779 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April-July declined 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes last year. Shipments to Singapore increased 889% to 2,842 tonnes, while exports to Libya rose 450% to 341 tonnes. However, exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, offsetting gains in other destinations. European and North American buyers continued to target residue-compliant, high-specification lots, although geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East weighed on traditional trade flows. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices declined 0.06% to Rs. 26,927.90. Technically, jeera is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 1.01% to 9,381 contracts alongside a Rs. 660 fall in prices. Support is placed at Rs. 25,830, followed by Rs. 25,180, while resistance is seen at Rs. 27,370, above which prices could test Rs. 28,260.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25180-28260.

• Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rallied amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring sowing and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26927.9 Rupees dropped by 0.06 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views