Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.8-261.8 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices slipped -0.3% to settle at 109,822 as investors booked profits after the metal touched record highs, with focus firmly on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outcome. Softer payroll data reinforced expectations for multiple rate cuts this year, with markets pricing in three reductions. However, U.S. economic resilience was evident as August retail sales rose 0.6%, with the core control group advancing 0.7% for a fourth straight month. The Fed delivered a 25 bps cut to 4.00%–4.25%, its first since December, and signaled an additional 50 bps in easing before year-end, while upgrading GDP growth forecasts. Gold remains supported by safe-haven inflows, central bank buying, and U.S. dollar weakness, surging 41% year-to-date. Commerzbank raised its forecast to $3,600 per ounce by year-end and $3,800 by 2026, while UBS sees $3,800 by end-2025 and $3,900 by mid-2026, citing rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks. ETF holdings are expected to climb above 3,900 tons by late 2025, near record highs. Still, physical demand across Asia weakened as high prices deterred retail buying. Discounts in China widened to $17–$24/oz, while India saw narrower discounts and modest premiums. Technically, gold is under long liquidation with open interest down -10.67% to 13,908. Support lies at 109,355, below which 108,880 may be tested, while resistance is seen at 110,130, with potential to advance toward 110,430 if momentum strengthens.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 108880-110430.
* Gold slipped as investors locked in profits after prices scaled record high.
* The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 4.00%–4.25%
* Softer payroll data highlighted a weakening labor market, reinforcing expectations for multiple cuts.
Silver
Silver prices slipped by -1.43% to settle at 126,984, retreating from record highs as investors booked profits ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outcome. The Fed delivered a 25 bps rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%, its first since December, and signaled further easing of 50 bps before year-end. U.S. housing data added pressure, with starts tumbling 8.5% MoM in August to a 1.307 million unit pace, well below forecasts. Meanwhile, policy divergence across global central banks continues, with China expected to ease further, while Japan and the UK hold steady. Despite the pullback, strong industrial demand from the solar, EV, and electronics sectors remains a key pillar of support, alongside constrained supply. The Silver Institute projects the global deficit narrowing 21% to 117.6 Moz in 2025, reflecting a 1% fall in demand and 2% higher supply. Industrial demand is expected to stay steady after a record 680.5 Moz in 2024, while jewelry and silverware demand weakens. Investment trends show resilience, with global silver ETP holdings hitting 1.13 Boz by mid-2025, their highest since early 2021, supported by net inflows of 95 Moz in H1. Technically, silver is under long liquidation as open interest dropped -2.64% to 17,752 alongside a price decline of 1,836 rupees. Support is placed at 125,640, below which 124,290 could be tested, while resistance is seen at 128,000, with potential to advance toward 129,010 on a breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 124290-129010.
* Silver fell pulling back from record highs as investors locked in profits.
* The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 4.00%–4.25%, in line with expectations.
* Fed signaled additional 50bps cuts before year’s end while revising GDP growth projections higher.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices slipped by -0.84% to settle at 5,646 as supply developments and inventory data drove market sentiment. Kazakhstan resumed oil flows via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from September 13 after a temporary suspension due to contamination, easing some regional supply concerns. However, risks persist as Ukrainian drone strikes continue to target Russian energy infrastructure, raising the possibility of disruptions to exports. Russia’s Transneft even cautioned producers about potential output cuts if attacks persist. In the U.S., the latest EIA data showed a sharper-than-expected drawdown in crude stocks, which fell by 9.3 million barrels to 415.4 million, far exceeding forecasts for an 857,000-barrel decline. Crude inventories at Cushing dropped by 296,000 barrels, while refinery runs fell by 394,000 bpd, dragging utilization down to 93.3%. Gasoline stocks declined by 2.3 million barrels, against expectations for a build, reflecting strong demand. In contrast, distillate inventories rose by 4 million barrels to 124.7 million, above market forecasts. On the outlook front, OPEC maintained its relatively strong demand growth forecast for 2025, highlighting robust global economic activity in the first half that has extended into the second. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest jumped by 50.38% to 6,495 while prices eased by 48 points. Crude oil finds support at 5,614, with further downside risk to 5,581, while resistance lies at 5,678, and a break above could push prices towards 5,709.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5581-5709.
* Crude oil prices eased as Kazakhstan resumed oil supplies via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
* U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, while distillate stockpiles rose – EIA
* Crude stocks fell by 9.3 million barrels to 415.4 million barrels in the week ended September 12, the EIA said.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices slipped by -0.91% to settle at 271.6 as ample storage levels weighed on sentiment, though downside remained limited by lower output and expectations of stronger near-term demand. Production in the Lower 48 averaged 107.4 bcfd in September, down from August’s record 108.3, with a preliminary three-month low of 105.1 bcfd anticipated due to pipeline maintenance and declines in key producing states like Texas, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Storage data showed U.S. inventories rose by 71 bcf in the week ended September 5, slightly above expectations of 68 bcf and well above both last year’s 36 bcf build and the five-year average of 56 bcf. Inventories now stand 6% above the seasonal average, keeping the market comfortably supplied despite structural demand growth. LNG feedgas flows dipped to 15.6 bcfd in September from 15.8 in August, with the Cove Point plant undergoing a month-long maintenance shutdown, further limiting near-term export demand. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects U.S. dry gas production to climb from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026, while consumption is forecast to rise to a record 91.5 bcfd in 2025 before a marginal decline in 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest falling -13.07% to 23,115. Natural gas has support at 268.5, below which 265.5 may be tested, while resistance lies at 276.4, and a break higher could target 281.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265.5-281.3.
* Natural gas prices dropped amid ample amounts of gas in storage.
* However downside seen limited on lower daily output in recent days.
* Production in the Lower 48 averaged 107.4 bcfd in September, down from August’s record 108.3.
Copper
Copper prices dropped -1.32% to settle at 903.75, pressured by a stronger supply outlook. Chile, the world’s top producer, projects national copper output to rise both this year and next, targeting a record 6 million tons by 2027 despite ongoing challenges at Codelco’s flagship mine and disruptions at Teck Resources’ operations. On the other hand, supply concerns persisted as Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia remained shut for rescue operations, while China reported a 5% decline in September copper production, removing nearly 500,000 tons of refined copper from the market and partly offsetting Chile’s expansion. Market balance data showed the global copper surplus narrowed to 36,000 tons in June from 79,000 tons in May, with the January–June surplus at 251,000 tons versus 395,000 tons a year earlier, according to the ICSG. World refined copper output reached 2.43 million tons in June against consumption of 2.40 million tons. Chinese demand signals remained mixed: copper concentrate imports grew 8% in August to 2.76 million tons as miners rushed exports before licenses expired, pushing year-to-date imports up 7.9% to 20.05 million tons. However, refined copper imports fell 11.5% in August to 425,000 tons. Technically, copper is under long liquidation as open interest fell sharply by -27.61% to 3,502 while prices slid -12.05 points. Support lies at 897.6, below which 891.4 could be tested, while resistance is seen at 912, and a break higher may lift prices toward 920.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 891.4-920.2.
* Copper fell as a stronger supply outlook weighed on the market.
* China's refined copper production in August climbed by 14.8% from the prior year to 1.3 million tons
* China reported a 5% decline in copper production in early September, removing about 500,000 tons of refined copper.
Zinc
Zinc prices slipped -1.36% to settle at 279.3 as traders trimmed positions ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, while muted demand from China further pressured sentiment. However, the downside was cushioned by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of tightening supply in China, where the government is pushing capacity curbs to tackle deflationary risks. Recent Chinese macro data highlighted continued weakness, with industrial production hitting a one-year low and retail sales slowing to an eight-month low, both missing forecasts. On the supply side, LME zinc stocks stood at 50,150 tons, down nearly 75% since mid-April, with a further 15,375 tons scheduled for withdrawal, fueling tightness in deliverable supplies. This has created backwardation in the LME market, with the cash contract trading at a premium of $18 over the three-month forward. SHFE zinc inventories rose 8.8% from last Friday, though market balance remains delicate. Global zinc markets showed a deficit of 27,200 tons in June, narrowing from May, but the first half of 2025 recorded a surplus of 47,000 tons, according to ILZSG. Production trends remain mixed: some Chinese smelters face pressure to cut capacity, while others, particularly in Henan and Yunnan, continue to ramp up post-maintenance. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation, with open interest down -12.75% to 2,957 as prices declined by 3.85 points. Support is at 277.7, with further downside risk to 276.2, while resistance lies at 281.8, and a break above could push prices toward 284.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.2-284.4.
* Zinc dropped as traders trimmed positions ahead of a decision on U.S. interest rates from Fed, while demand from China was muted.
* However downside seen limited amid weakening US dollar and tightening supply conditions in China.
* China will deepen fiscal reforms and use fiscal policy tools to support consumption and investment,.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices slipped -1.09% to 257.5 as Japan’s August stocks rose 6.3% month-on-month, adding pressure to the market. However, losses were limited as speculative bullish positions and strong physical demand triggered a sharp drawdown in LME inventories, which plunged nearly 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 in the first third of September. Supply risks were heightened after Guinea’s government revoked all mining licenses, threatening ore production that feeds Emirates Global Aluminium. On the global balance front, the aluminium market showed a supply surplus of 183,100 tonnes in June, with production at 6.0944 million tonnes versus consumption of 5.9113 million tonnes. Premiums offered to Japanese buyers for Q4 shipments eased to $98–103 per tonne, down from $108 in the prior quarter, reflecting sluggish demand. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium output rose 2.5% year-on-year in July to 6.373 million tonnes, according to IAI data. Regional dynamics remain mixed: European markets face tightness due to sanctions on Russia, while China continues to drive demand with supportive fiscal measures. China exported 542,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products in July, while imports surged 38.2% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation as open interest dropped -21.37% to 3,389. Support lies at 256.1, with further weakness possible toward 254.8, while resistance is placed at 259.6, and a breakout above could lift prices to 261.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.8-261.8.
* Aluminium dropped amid Japan's August aluminium stocks rise 6.3% m/m.
* China's aluminium production fell by 0.5 % to 3.8 million metric tons in August from a year earlier.
* Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year on year to 6.373 million tonnes.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled marginally down by -0.25% at 12,076, amid an increase in acreage supported by favorable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained capped as recent heavy rainfall, particularly in Nanded, adversely affected standing turmeric crops, damaging around 15% of the crop area. IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in some parts of South India for September has raised additional concerns among turmeric growers. Stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days, supporting firmness in prices amid low inflows and cautious selling. On the production front, dry weather conditions currently favor timely planting, and preliminary estimates indicate a potential acreage rise of 15-20%, as alternative crops offer comparatively lower profitability. For the 2024-25 season, turmeric cultivation covered 3.30 lakh hectares, a 10% increase from the previous year. At Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals are witnessing strong buyer interest, with new produce consistently fetching higher prices due to superior quality, defying typical end-of-season slowdowns. Turmeric exports during April–June 2025 rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared to the same period last year. However, June exports fell by 7.93% year-on-year and by 28.21% compared to May 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -0.48% to 16,585 while prices fell by -30 rupees. Immediate support stands at 12,024, below which a test of 11,974 is possible. Resistance is likely at 12,152, and a breakout above could target 12,230.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11974-12230.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.
* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12916.3 Rupees dropped by -0.38 percent.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 19,480, pressured by weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. However, the downside was limited, as the GST council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5% provides support by boosting FMCG exports and domestic consumption. Traders attributed the fall mainly to the subdued interest from foreign buyers and comfortable domestic stocks. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. Geopolitical disruptions in major jeera-producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have cut their supplies, but weak overseas demand from India is hurting market sentiment. China’s cumin production estimate was also revised downward to 70–80 thousand tons because of adverse weather. Jeera exports during April–June 2025 dropped by -19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes from 73,666.09 tonnes in the same period last year. June exports increased by 10.26% year-on-year but dropped by -29.67% compared to May 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest gaining by 4.51% to settle at 3,612, while prices fell by -105 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 19,400, with a further test of 19,310 possible if the fall continues. Resistance is likely at 19,630, and a breakout above could push prices toward 19,770.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19310-19770.
* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19550.5 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.
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