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Gold

Gold settled nearly flat at 96,461, down -0.01%, as a tempered Federal Reserve dovish outlook offset fresh concerns over new US trade tariffs. President Trump’s move to impose a 50% tariff on copper, potential 200% duties on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% levy on BRICS goods is expected to lift US inflation, limiting the Fed’s scope for aggressive rate cuts. The Fed left rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth straight meeting, with policymakers divided on whether cuts should begin this year. China’s gold reserves edged up to 73.90 million ounces in June, with central banks adding a net 20 tons globally in May. The National Bank of Kazakhstan led purchases, while Singapore trimmed holdings by 5 tons. Physical demand in Asia stayed weak amid high prices — Indian dealers cut discounts to $14 an ounce as lower imports balanced sluggish jewellery demand, while premiums in China widened sharply to $4.2–$33 an ounce. Gold ETFs saw strong safe-haven inflows, adding 397.1 tons in H1 2025 — the biggest semi-annual rise since 2020 — lifting total holdings to 3,615.9 tons. Technically, gold is under long liquidation as open interest fell -1.99% to 12,048 lots while prices slipped by 11 rupees. Support is seen at 95,985; a break lower could test 95,510. Resistance is at 96,750, above which prices may test 97,040.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 95510-97040.

* Gold fell as a tempered Federal Reserve dovish outlook offset concerns over renewed trade tensions.

* Most Fed officials see a rate cut likely appropriate this year despite recent inflation pressures.

* China’s gold reserves stood at 73.90 million fine troy ounces at the end of June, up slightly from 73.83 million ounces at the end of May.

Silver

Silver settled lower by -0.67% at 107,265 as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on precious metals. The decline followed President Trump’s aggressive tariff announcements, including a 50% duty on copper imports and potential 200% levies on pharmaceuticals, which may lift inflation but support the dollar in the near term. A solid US jobs report for June further reduced hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, US wholesale inventories fell 0.3% in May, marking the first decline since December 2024, as firms adjusted to the new trade policy environment. On the fundamentals side, the silver market is forecast to record its fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, with total global demand seen steady at 1.20 billion ounces. Industrial fabrication is projected to hit a record high, surpassing 700 million ounces, driven by ongoing demand from green technologies. Physical investment demand is expected to rise 3% as Western investors return to the market after last year’s profit-taking. However, jewelry demand could decline 6%, led by weaker demand in India due to high local prices. The global deficit is forecast to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces, reflecting slightly lower demand and a 2% increase in supply. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure with open interest up by 2.52% to 16,945 lots while prices dropped by 720 rupees. Silver has support at 106,820; a break below could test 106,375. Resistance is seen at 107,995, above which prices may target 108,725.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 106375-108725.

* Silver slipped as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields pressured precious metal prices

* Renewed concerns over aggressive US tariffs from President Trump weighed on investor sentiment.

* Strong US jobs report dampened hopes for imminent Fed rate cuts.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled slightly lower by -0.12% at 5,879 as markets weighed rising OPEC+ output against geopolitical risks and U.S. supply dynamics. OPEC+ is set to raise production again in September after approving a 548,000 bpd increase for August, completing the unwinding of voluntary cuts and expanding the UAE’s quota. Despite these hikes, UAE’s Energy Minister noted that global inventories are not building, indicating strong demand absorption. Meanwhile, attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi militia renewed geopolitical supply risks, lending support to prices. In the U.S., crude inventories unexpectedly surged by 7.1 million barrels last week, the biggest build since January, driven by a drop in refinery runs and higher stocks at Cushing. However, gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.7 million and 825,000 barrels respectively, reflecting solid fuel demand. The EIA also lowered its U.S. oil production forecast for 2025 to 13.37 million bpd, down from 13.42 million bpd, as weaker oil prices have slowed drilling activity. This is still a record high but highlights the challenges U.S. producers face amid volatile tariffs and OPEC+ supply shifts. Net U.S. crude imports also declined sharply, signaling stronger domestic supply use. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation with open interest down by -10.94% to 12,218 lots as prices eased by 7 rupees. Support is at 5,822; below this, prices may test 5,765. Resistance is seen at 5,923; a move above could push prices toward 5,967.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5765-5967.

* Crude oil dropped OPEC+ is set to raise output again in September

* However downside seen limited following attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and a forecast for lower U.S. oil production.

* US oil output forecast cut for 2025 as low prices slow producer activity

Natural gas

Natural gas settled sharply lower by -5.01% at 273.1 as higher-than-normal storage levels and rising output pressured prices despite hotter-than-normal weather forecasts for late July. Average output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.7 bcfd so far in July, topping the June record of 106.4 bcfd. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities added 55 bcf into storage for the week ending June 27, above expectations and the same week last year, marking the 11th consecutive week of larger-than-usual injections. Current gas stockpiles stand about 6% above the five-year average for this time of year, keeping market sentiment bearish in the near term. However, the premium of September futures over August reached a record high, suggesting expectations for tighter supplies or stronger demand later in the summer. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects U.S. dry gas output to hit fresh records, rising to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026, with LNG exports also climbing to new highs. Domestic gas consumption is forecast to reach 91.3 bcfd in 2025, up from 90.5 bcfd this year, supporting long-term demand optimism. With hot weather forecast to boost power generation demand for air conditioning, immediate downside could find some cushion. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure with open interest surging by 30.08% to 36,389 lots while prices dropped by 14.4 rupees. Support is seen at 266.9, below which prices could test 260.6. Resistance is at 283.3; a move above may open the door to 293.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 260.6-293.4.

* Natural gas fell amid an increase in output so far this month.

* Another factor weighing on prices has been the growing surplus of gas in storage over the five-year normal level.

* Gas stockpiles were already about 6% above normal levels for this time of year.

Copper

Copper settled lower by -0.75% at 883.85 as fresh inflows into LME-registered warehouses eased supply tightness concerns. Daily LME data showed stocks rose by 4,625 tons, helping push the cash-to-three-month spread from a premium of $320 two weeks ago to a current discount of $2 a ton. Meanwhile, traders have been shipping large amounts of copper into the U.S. since February amid tariff uncertainty, driving COMEX inventories to a seven-year high and widening the COMEX premium to 27% from 13% before Trump’s tariff announcement. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories also rose 3.7% from last Friday. On the macro front, a private survey showed China’s manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in June, suggesting some relief for copper demand as trade tensions ease. Still, China’s imports of unwrought copper and products slipped 2.5% month-on-month to 427,000 tons in May and fell 16.9% year-on-year, even as year-to-date imports remain down 6.7%. The ICSG reported the global refined copper market swung to a 50,000-ton deficit in April from a surplus in March, showing a tightening trend when adjusting for Chinese bonded inventories. However, for the first four months of the year, the market remains in surplus by 233,000 tons. Technically, copper remains under long liquidation as open interest dropped by -1.51% to 8,278 lots while prices slipped by 6.65 rupees. Copper finds support at 876.6; a break below could test 869.3. Resistance is now seen at 895.6, above which prices may move towards 907.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 869.3-907.3.

* Copper dropped as LME stocks rose by 4,625 tons, easing tightness in the system.

* Cash-to-three-month LME spread flipped to a $2 discount after peaking at $320 premium.

* COMEX copper premium over LME three-month surged to 27% from 13% pre-tariff announcement.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 0.72% at 257.8, supported by a weaker dollar but gains were capped by worries over slowing demand amid new U.S. tariffs. President Trump’s formal notices imposing tariffs of 25% to 40% on 14 countries from August 1, and a possible extra 10% levy on BRICS nations, fueled uncertainty for global trade flows and manufacturing sentiment. Meanwhile, deliverable zinc stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4% last week, reflecting cautious buying by Chinese manufacturers as factory activity continues to contract. SHFE zinc inventories also rose by 1.8%, while LME stocks remain low, suggesting some overseas supply tightness is still lending support. The U.S. jobs report for June beat expectations with 147,000 new jobs added, lifting the dollar slightly but not enough to derail zinc’s gains. On the supply side, output constraints provided some support. Teck’s Red Dog Mine reported a 20% drop in output in Q1, while Australia’s Nyrstar will cut this year’s production by 25% due to ore shortages. China’s refined zinc output fell 1% MoM in May despite a 2% YoY gain, but maintenance shutdowns in major smelting regions have limited supply growth. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 16,000 tons in April, down from 23,400 tons in March, indicating some tightening. Technically, zinc is under fresh buying as open interest rose 4.65% to 3,329 lots while prices gained by 1.85 rupees. Support is seen at 255.9, below which prices could test 254.1. Resistance is at 258.9; a move above could push prices to 260.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 254.1-260.1.

* Zinc gained on a weaker dollar but upside capped by fears of tariff-driven demand slowdown.

* Trump also warned of an extra 10% levy on BRICS countries for “anti-American” policies

* SHFE zinc inventories rose 4% weekly, indicating weaker offtake as factory demand stays sluggish

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 0.34% at 249.55, supported by signs of tightening supply despite mixed demand signals. China’s aluminium production in June fell 3.23% month-on-month as capacity replacement projects in Shandong required shutdowns, though overall domestic operating rates remain high with new capacity in Yunnan coming online. Meanwhile, inventories at LME warehouses rose by 47,450 tons to 384,350 tons since late June, shifting the cash premium to a discount and suggesting some easing in immediate tightness. However, combined LME and SHFE aluminium stocks remain about 60% lower year-on-year, highlighting underlying supply constraints. On the global front, primary aluminium output rose 1.5% year-on-year to 6.245 million tons in May, while China’s May production grew 5% from a year ago to 3.83 million tons, lifting year-to-date output by 4% to 18.59 million tons. Yet export volumes in May fell 3.2% year-on-year despite a slight month-on-month uptick, indicating soft overseas demand. Japan’s aluminium premium for Q3 shipments dropped 41% to $108 per ton amid ample supply and weak demand, while stocks at Japan’s three main ports climbed to 331,000 tons. End-use demand remains a concern with China’s official manufacturing PMI pointing to ongoing contraction, but hopes for better demand persist due to recovering consumer spending and limited European supply amid Russian sanctions. Technically, aluminium is under short covering as open interest fell by -2.26% to 3,542 lots while prices rose by 0.85 rupees. Support is seen at 247.7; a break lower could test 245.9. Resistance is at 250.6; a move above may push prices to 251.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 245.9-251.7.

* Aluminium gains as support seen after China’s aluminium production fell 3.23% MoM in June.

* LME aluminium stocks rose by 47,450 tons, flipping cash-to-three-month premium into a discount

* Global primary aluminium output in May rose 1.5% year on year to 6.245 million tonnes

Turmeric

Turmeric settled higher by 0.97% at 13,300, supported by short covering after recent weakness triggered by expectations of increased acreage due to favourable monsoon rains this sowing season. Arrivals edged up to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 quintals in the previous session, reflecting a slight uptick in market availability. However, despite the higher sown area—up by 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares for 2024-25 compared to 3 lakh hectares last year—production gains may remain limited. Untimely rains and reports of crop rot, especially in the Nanded region, are expected to dent yields by 10–15% from last season’s 10.75 lakh tonnes. In the spot market, fresh crop arrivals at the Duggirala market continue to draw strong buying interest. Premiums for new stock remain robust due to its better quality, defying typical end-of-season slowdowns. Daily trade volumes of 1,000–1,200 bags (70 kg each) highlight healthy market participation, with nearly 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Steady arrivals are expected to continue through June, sustaining market activity in the short term.  On the export front, India shipped 14,956.80 tonnes of turmeric in April 2025, up 6% year-on-year but marginally down by 0.92% from March, indicating steady overseas demand. Technically, turmeric remains under short covering, with open interest dropping 1.28% to 17,770 lots while prices rose by 128. Immediate support is at 13,220, with a break below exposing 13,140. Resistance is likely at 13,364, and a move above this could push prices towards 13,428.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13140-13428.

* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14057.6 Rupees dropped by -1.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera edged higher by 0.49% to settle at 19,650, supported by sporadic export demand and easing geopolitical tensions that have previously disrupted supplies from other key producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. However, upside momentum remains capped due to the winding down of the retail buying season and lacklustre overseas interest. Domestic supplies also remain ample, with farmers still holding about 20 lakh bags of cumin. Only an estimated 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, which could leave a hefty carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. For the current season, production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags—lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags—mainly due to reduced sowing. Gujarat’s cumin output is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s is projected at 48–50 lakh bags, pointing to relatively stable domestic supply. On the global front, production in other cumin-growing nations has also faced challenges. Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are expected to produce just 9–12 thousand tonnes each, tightening global supply but so far failing to significantly boost Indian exports. Reflecting this, India’s jeera exports fell sharply by 48.11% year-on-year in April 2025 to 19,719.60 tonnes but showed a 13.74% increase month-on-month compared to March. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 5.75% to 3,984 lots while prices rose by 95. Immediate support is at 19,590, with a drop below exposing 19,510. Resistance is pegged at 19,710, and a break above this could push prices to test 19,750.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19510-19750.

* Jeera gains on strong export demand and easing geopolitical concerns.

* However upside seen limited due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20190.2 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

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