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Gold

Gold slipped 0.38% to 129,962 as traders turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting, where a 25 bps rate cut is almost fully priced in, supported by mixed US jobs data and steady core inflation. Markets see further easing in 2025, while investors await fresh Fed projections for 2026 and beyond. The upcoming JOLTS report is also in focus for final labour cues. On the global front, central banks continued their strong accumulation trend. The People’s Bank of China expanded its reserves for the 13th consecutive month, lifting holdings to 74.12 million oz, while global central banks added 53 tonnes in October, led by Poland and Brazil. Year-to-date purchases now stand at 254 tonnes, though Russia remained a marginal seller. Physical demand in Asia stayed subdued as high prices prompted buyers to wait. India saw discounts widen to $22/oz, while Chinese bullion traded between $10 discount to $8 premium. Singapore reported premiums up to $2.5, and Hong Kong ranged from $0.5 discount to $2 premium. Global gold demand, however, rose 3% YoY to a record 1,313 tonnes in Q3, driven by strong bar-coin buying and a sharp 134% jump in ETF inflows, offsetting weaker jewellery demand. Long liquidation dragged prices lower with open interest down 0.34%. Support is placed at 129435, below which 128910 may be tested. Resistance is at 130625, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 131290.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 128910-131290.

* Gold dropped as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year.

* Mixed US employment data and core inflation in line with expectations have supported the case for additional easing.

* PBOC continued to add to its gold holdings for the thirteenth consecutive month in November.

Silver

Silver slipped 0.91% to 181,742 as traders booked profits after last week’s record highs, with markets now positioning ahead of the expected US Fed rate cut. Despite the pullback, sentiment remains broadly supported as silver benefits from tightening physical conditions, including low visible inventories, strong ETF inflows, and sustained industrial demand from solar and green technologies. Global silver-backed ETFs added around 200 tons, pushing holdings to their highest level since 2022. A significant volume of silver was shipped to London last month, tightening supplies in other hubs, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories plunged to their lowest in a decade. Chinese exports surged to a record 660 tons in October, underscoring sharp domestic drawdowns. Liquidity concerns persist globally, with elevated borrowing costs in London and ongoing monitoring of potential US tariffs after silver’s inclusion on the USGS critical minerals list. LBMA data showed London vault silver stocks rising 3.5% to 27,187 tons in November. On the macro front, US data was broadly steady. The PCE index rose 0.3% MoM, matching expectations, while personal spending grew 0.3% and income rose 0.4%, signalling a stable demand environment. Silver remains under long liquidation with open interest down 1.74%. Strong support lies at 180495, below which 179250 may be tested. Resistance is at 183140, and a breakout could lift prices toward 184540.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 179250-184540.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices gained as investors prepared for an expected Fed interest rate cut.

* Silver reserves in London vaults rise 3.5% in November, says LBMA

* Silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons, lifting total holdings to the highest level since 2022 amid robust demand.

Crude oil

Crude oil fell 1.71% to 5,334 as markets tracked diplomatic efforts to end the Ukraine conflict and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Sentiment weakened after Saudi Arabia cut its January Arab Light crude price for Asia to a five-year low, while Canadian crude slid to its weakest since March. Fitch Ratings also trimmed its 2025–2027 oil price outlook, citing expectations of oversupply as production continues to outpace demand. OPEC+ kept output steady for Q1 2026, signalling caution amid fears of a deeper supply glut. Meanwhile, U.S. production hit a fresh record 13.84 million bpd, with New Mexico and the Gulf region also posting multi-year highs. China supported the demand side, with November crude imports rising 4.88% YoY to 12.38 million bpd, the highest since August 2023. US crude inventories rose 0.574 million barrels, defying expectations of a draw, while gasoline stocks surged 4.52 million barrels and distillates slipped 0.293 million barrels. The EIA’s outlook projected U.S. output averaging 13.59 million bpd this year, nudging higher on stronger-than-expected production. Global supply is seen averaging 106 million bpd, outpacing projected consumption of 104.1 million bpd. The IEA also raised its supply growth forecasts, warning of a larger surplus heading into 2026. Crude oil remains under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.87%. Support lies at 5287, below which 5241 may be tested. Resistance is at 5414, and a breakout could push prices toward 5495.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5241-5495.

* Crude oil prices fell as investors monitored ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine.

* Saudi Arabia lowering its January Arab light crude price for Asia to its lowest level in five years.

* China's November crude oil imports reach highest daily level in 27 months

Natural gas

Natural gas fell sharply by 8.01% to 448.9 as forecasts pointed to milder weather over the next two weeks, reducing expectations of heating demand. The decline was compounded by near-record U.S. output, abundant storage levels, and weaker global gas prices. In Europe, countries confirmed plans to eliminate Russian LNG imports by 2027, reinforcing current efforts to diversify supply. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports jumped 40% year-on-year in November to 10.7 million tonnes, with 2025 exports already reaching roughly 15 bcm as producers ramp up shipments. Storage data from the EIA showed utilities withdrew 12 bcf of gas in the week ending November 28, the third straight weekly draw but slightly below expectations of an 18 bcf drop. U.S. gas stocks now stand at 3,923 bcf, 0.5% below last year but still 5.1% above the five-year average, highlighting comfortable supply conditions. Speculators trimmed 23,064 net long positions, reflecting a softer market outlook, while Baker Hughes reported a slight drop in gas rigs to 129. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects record U.S. output and demand in 2025, with dry gas production expected to rise to 107.1 bcfd and consumption to 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are also forecast to climb to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Natural gas remains under strong long liquidation, with open interest down 50.87%. Support lies at 438.4, and a break below may open the door to 427.8. Resistance is placed at 464.7, with further upside possible toward 480.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 427.8-480.4.

* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less cold weather, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage

* US LNG exports surged 40% year-on-year in November to 10.7 million tonnes, even as domestic producers continued ramping up output.

* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 1 to 129.

Copper

Copper edged higher by 0.34% to 1097.05 as sentiment improved following Citi’s bullish price outlook and support from a weaker U.S. dollar ahead of the anticipated Fed rate cut. Citi raised its average price forecast for Q2 next year to $13,000, with a bull case of $15,000, citing strong macro-driven fund buying and tightening supply. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 9.2% to 88,905 tons, reinforcing expectations of supply tightness. Rio Tinto lifted its 2025 production forecast to 860,000–875,000 tons due to a ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi, while Goldman Sachs increased its 2026 LME price outlook to $10,710. Supply negotiations between Chinese smelters and miners are strained as miners hold pricing power, pushing smelters to cut output by over 10% in 2026 to offset weak processing fees. Chile’s copper production fell 7% YoY in October, adding to global supply concerns. The refined copper market recorded a 51,000-ton deficit in September, reversing from a surplus in August, ICSG data showed. However, year-to-date the market remains in a modest surplus. China’s copper imports fell for a second month in November to 427,000 tons, reflecting softer import appetite amid higher global prices. Yangshan premiums slid to $32, while Comex warehouse stocks surged as traders exploited arbitrage opportunities. Copper concentrate imports, however, rose to 2.53 million tons, underscoring steady smelter demand. Fresh buying was observed with open interest up 1.23%. Support is at 1088.9, with a fall toward 1080.6 possible. Resistance stands at 1104.7, and a breakout may extend gains toward 1112.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1080.6-1112.2.

* Copper surged to a record as global supply tightness and China’s planned output cuts boosted sentiment

* China’s top smelters agreed to cut output 10% in 2026 to combat negative processing fees, fuelling expectations for tighter supply.

* China’s copper imports fell in November for a second consecutive month.

Zinc

Zinc gained 1.11% to 314.05 as a weaker U.S. dollar ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting boosted buying interest, while expectations of a December rate cut further supported sentiment. Tightening physical availability in LME-registered warehouses added to the bullish tone, even as rising stock levels capped upside momentum. Business activity in the euro zone reached its fastest pace in two and a half years during November, adding macro support to the metal. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, according to ILZSG data, though the refined market still showed a surplus of 120,000 tons in the first nine months of 2025. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped 4.17%, reflecting reduced domestic availability. Production disruptions also bolstered prices, with zinc mines in Central and Southwest China undertaking maintenance shutdowns in December that are expected to reduce concentrate output, including a 700-mt drop in metal content at one mine. China’s refined zinc production fell 4% MoM in September but surged over 20% YoY, with cumulative Jan–Sep output up nearly 9% YoY—slightly below expectations. Exports of refined zinc jumped 243.8% in October to 8,519 tons as smelters targeted overseas markets amid weak domestic demand and earlier LME tightness. Meanwhile, LME zinc stocks climbed to 54,325 tons, easing some concerns about global supply. Fresh buying pushed open interest up 2.76%. Support is positioned at 311.3, with further downside toward 308.4 if broken. Resistance stands at 315.8, and a breakout could lead prices toward 317.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 308.4-317.4.

* Zinc prices jump as a lower U.S. dollar ahead of Fed’s meeting triggered a flurry of buying.

* Support also seen amid tighter availability of metal in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 4.17% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled slightly lower by 0.27% at 278.25, as traders booked profits after SHFE-monitored inventories rose 7.25%, adding mild pressure on sentiment. Concerns over demand in China, the world’s top consumer, also weighed on prices. However, the downside remained limited because Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity ceilings, restricting further supply growth. Expectations of improved demand and constrained output in China continued to lend underlying support. Fundamentally, the global supply environment remains tight. Global primary aluminium output for October inched up just 0.6% YoY to 6.294 million tonnes, according to IAI data—highlighting slow production growth. Stocks at major Japanese ports dropped 3.6% in October to 329,100 tonnes, reflecting steady drawdowns. Supply disruptions also added to bullish undertones: Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline due to an electrical failure, and Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery. Century Aluminium also curtailed two-thirds of its Iceland output due to equipment issues. On trade flows, China exported 542,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products in July, while imports surged 10.4% YoY in October to 350,000 tonnes, following a strong 35.4% rise in September—showcasing robust domestic demand. Year-to-date imports reached 3.36 million tonnes, up 6.1% YoY. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest slipping 1.03% to 3175 alongside a 0.75-rupee price decline. Aluminium now finds support at 276.8, below which a test of 275.2 is possible. Resistance is seen at 280.2, and a move above may open the path toward 282.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 275.2-282.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after SHFE inventories rose 7.25% from last Friday.

* Pressure also seen as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.

* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes - IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled 0.35% higher at Rs.14,434, supported by concerns over crop damage across key growing regions. Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have affected yields, and large inflows into the Erode market from these states reflect the ongoing supply stress. Continuous rainfall in Erode has also triggered disease outbreaks, with excess humidity making storage and preservation difficult. Additional support emerged after recent heavy rainfall in Nanded reportedly damaged nearly 15% of the crop area, tightening availability in the short term. Stocks with farmers in Warangal have nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals for two consecutive days, further underpinning firmness. However, the upside remains capped due to a likely increase in acreage during the current sowing season, supported by favourable rains and better planting conditions. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise 15–20%, making it more attractive compared to alternative crops. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric acreage stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than the previous year. Export performance has been healthy, with shipments during Apr–Sep 2025 rising 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes. September exports were up 7.59% YoY, though marginally lower 3.58% MoM. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices ended 0.7% lower at Rs.14,885.65. Technically, the market is in fresh buying mode, with open interest increasing 0.47% to 7,440, indicating renewed participation. Support is placed at Rs.14,282, with a further downside target of Rs.14,132. Resistance is seen at Rs.14,552, and a move above this level could take prices toward Rs.14,672.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14132-14672.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14885.65 Rupees dropped by -0.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures fell sharply, settling 3.1% lower at Rs.20,810, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export interest as existing stocks continue to meet current demand. Despite this decline, the downside remains somewhat restricted due to adverse weather conditions and delayed sowing across major producing regions. In Gujarat, sowing has dropped 7.74% YoY to 1.94 lakh hectares, one of the slowest paces in recent years as uneven rainfall has left fields unprepared. Arrivals at the Unjha market remain extremely thin, and premium-quality cumin continues to fetch better prices. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has shown slight improvement but remains highly price-sensitive amid logistical and weather-related disruptions in India and the Middle East. Traders note that the conclusion of the retail season and reduced participation from overseas buyers are weighing on sentiment. Farmers still hold nearly 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded this season, leaving a large carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced acreage. Globally, production estimates have also been trimmed for China, Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan due to adverse weather. Jeera exports for Apr–Sep 2025 fell 14.51%, though September shipments rose 2.20% YoY and 22.93% MoM. In the Unjha spot market, prices ended 0.17% higher at Rs.21,104.95. Technically, jeera is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.78%, reflecting selling pressure. Support lies at Rs.20,590, with further weakness toward Rs.20,360. Resistance is placed at Rs.21,210, and a move above may open gains toward Rs.21,600.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20360-21600.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing dropped by 7.74 to 194,775 hectares compared to 211,121 hectares last year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21104.95 Rupees gained by 0.17 percent.

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