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Weekly Update: Southwest monsoons, water reservoir levels, and kharif sowing

Southwest monsoons’ performance up to 16th Jul’21

India’s cumulative rainfall came in moderately higher at -7% of normal levels as of 16th Jul’21 (Exhibits 1, 2), against -8% as of 11th Jul’21. This marks the 11th straight day of negative deviation of rainfall this season. The monsoons began with cumulative rainfall of +69% (vis-à-vis normal rainfall), with rainfall declining to just +41% by 20th Jun’21. In terms of region-wide distribution, the situation has improved marginally in all regions (except for eastern). While deviation in the northern region reduced from -23% (long-period average) last week to -19% as of 16th Jul’21, that in the central region reduced from -9% to -8% during the corresponding period. Rainfall in the southern peninsula improved further by deviating +17% above normal, against just +7% as of 11th Jul’21 (Exhibit 3).

Water reservoir levels as of 15th Jul’21

Water reservoir levels are a very important indicator for irrigation purposes. Due to weak rainfall, water reservoir levels have also been marginally weaker this year vis-à-vis last year. However, the reservoir level at ~34% (of live storage capacity) in FY22 (as of 15th Jul’21) is still higher than the average of 28% seen during FY15–19 (Exhibit 3).

Kharif sowing up to mid-Jul’21

* As mentioned in the previous weekly, the whole purpose of tracking rainfall and water reservoir levels is because it makes a difference in sowing activity and, in turn, the Farm sector. The recent data available for the week ended 16th Jul’21 shows the area sown during this season is down 12.3% YoY. This is the worst performance in the past six years (Exhibit 5).

* A comparison between the area sown and normal area (five-year average) shows it was 57% as of 16th Jul’21, lower than 65% in the corresponding period last year. However, this is still better v/s pre-COVID years (Exhibit 6)

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