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Weekly Update: Not a good start, but revival visible

Southwest monsoon at 8% deficit as of 19th Jun’22

* The southwest monsoon season started inconsistently this year with heavy rainfall in the Southern region and hardly any rainfall in the rest of the country. 12 days into the season, the southern region recorded a deficiency of 41% and the eastern region recorded a surplus of 1%. If continued, such variation could be a cause for concern especially given elevated food prices this year.

* India’s cumulative rainfall reported a deficit of 8% v/s normal levels as of 19th Jun’22, compared to a surplus of 41% in CY21 and 30% in CY20. However, these are still early days of the season and the shortfall has reduced from 38% v/s normal on 12th Jun’22 to only 8% now, indicating improvement (Exhibit 1). This improvement is largely attributed to East and North East region, as the rest of India continues to witness deficient rainfall, albeit lower than in the previous weeks (Exhibits 2, 3).

Cumulative rainfall was deficient by 8% in the first 19 days of the southwest monsoon season of CY22

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