Weekly Oulook : Gold, Silver, Crudeoil, Copper, USDINR & NCDEX Castor By Anuj Gupta, IIFL Securities
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MCX Gold & Silver
As expected last week we witnessed a sharp rally in the Gold and Silver prices. MCX Gold prices touched the new record high of 61371 levels and MCX Silver touched the 32 month's high of 77549 levels. However on the last trading day of the week we saw profit booking and MCX Gold prices closed down by 0.28% and closed at 60348 levels. MCX Silver prices closed higher by 1.49% and closed at 75665 levels.
Fundamentally the trend of gold and silver are positive on the back of weakness in dollar and strong central banks demand. In India due to upcoming Akshaya tritiya jewellers are expecting good sales.
Technically the trend of gold and silver are positive as prices are forming higher top and higher bottom formation. Gold has immediate support at 59800 / 59300 ($1990 / $1965) levels while resistance at 60800 / 61300 levels ($2025 / $2050)levels. Silver has immediate support at 74000 / 72000 ($25 / $24) while resistance at 77000 / 79000 ($26 / $27) levels. We are expecting that gold may test $2030 to $2050 levels and Silver may test $27 / $28 levels in the coming week. We are recommending buying on support levels in gold and silver.
MCX Crude Oil
As expected we noticed a positive trend in crude oil. MCX Crude Oil increased sharply and tested the 5 month high levels of 6843 levels. Brent crude oil also increased sharply and 1.78% higher at $86.11 per barel levels. Production cut by the OPEX+ members were supported for the crude oil. Technically the trend of crude oil is positive and we are recommending buy in crude oil for the next week also. Oil markets rallied earlier in the day after the Paris-based International Energy Agency, IEA, said demand for crude could hit a record peak in 2023, helped by a spike in consumption by top importer China.
It has immediate support at 6500 / 6200 ($83 / $80) levels while resistance at 7000 / 7200 ($90 / $93) levels. We are expecting it may test $90 levels very soon so we are recommending buy on support levels for the next week.
MCX Copper
Last week we saw a rally in all the base metals. Copper increased sharply and tested the contract high of 798.65 levels. It closed 2.49% higher at 789.70 levels. Zinc prices increased sharply by 1.74% and closed at 251.95 levels. Aluminium increased by 1.48% and closed at 209.60 levels. Lead also increased by 1.80% and closed at 183.85 levels.
The trend of base metals is positive and we are expecting further up trend in the base metals. Weakness in the dollar and the expectation demand from China are supportive factors for the base metals. Technically Copper has immediate support at 780 levels and 765 levels, while resistance at 800 and then 810 levels. As per the technical trend it may test 800 to 810 levels very soon. We are recommending buy in the base metals as the trend is positive.
USDINR
Last week the dollar corrected sharply by 0.49% and closed at 101.46 levels. Rupee against the dollar appreciated by 0.14% and closed at 81.64 levels. The trend of the dollar is looking weak and it may go down further. As per the technical chart and fundamental factors it may test 100 to 98 levels very soon. For the rupee we are expecting appreciation against the dollar and it may appreciate further. It has immediate support at 81 and 80.50 levels while resistance at 82.50 and then 83.10 levels. It may test 81 to 80.50 levels very soon. India's forex reserves jumped by USD 6.3 billion to USD 584. 755 billion for the week ended April 7, the RBI said on Friday. In the last reporting week, the forex kitty snapped a two-week rising trend to decline by USD 329 million to 578.45 billion.
NCDEX CASTOR
On the Agri commodity side we observed that the NCDEX Castor increased sharply and tested the 3 week's high of 6398 levels. It increased by 3.38% and closed at 6292 levels. The trend of ncdex Castor became positive as the demand on lower levels has increased significantly by the physical traders. Export inquiries are also expected to rise on the lower levels. Domestic demand of the castor is increasing by the stocksist as prices are trading at 15 months low levels.
Technically we observed a trend line breakout coupled with the significant volumes. We are recommending to buy in ncdex caster seed prices. It has immediate support at 6000 and then 5750 levels while resistance at 6600 and then 7000 levels.
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