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Below are Views on Weekly Oulook - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Base Metals, USDINR & NCDEX Jeera By Mr. Anuj Gupta, Vice President, IIFL Securities

Gold

Last week gold and silver prices corrected on the back of strength in the dollar and positive US data. FED was also signalled to increase interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting and may use hawkish stance in the policy.

We have also seen the tension again escalating between Russia and Ukraine which may create geopolitical tension in the global environment.

MCX Gold prices corrected by 0.92% and closed at 56255 levels. In the international market it corrected by 1.24% and closed at $1842 per ounce. Technically the trend of Gold is sideways and it may trade between support and resistance levels. For the next week gold supported at 55700 ($1835) and then 55200 levels ($1820) while resistance at 56700 levels ($1860) and then 57200 ($1890) levels. We are expecting that prices may trade between the support and resistance levels, but buy on support levels is recommended as geopolitical tension and hedge against uncertainty may again escalate which provide support to the gold prices.

Silver

MCX Silver corrected sharply by 1.70% and closed at 65600 levels and on the international market it corrected by 1.33% and closed at $21.70 levels. Technically the trend of silver is sideways as it recovers from the lower levels in the last trading session.

For the next week it has support at 64500 levels ($21.20) and then 63000 levels ($20.50) while resistance at 66500 levels ($22.30) and then 68000 levels ($23). Buy on support levels is recommended for the next week.

Crude Oil
Last week MCX Crude oil March corrected by 4.25% and closed at 6313 levels. Brent crude oil corrected sharply by 4.04% and closed at $82.73 levels.

Prices were corrected as traders worried that future U.S. interest rate hikes could weigh on demand and got nervous about mounting signs of ample crude and fuel supply.

Crude Oil storage is at 19 month higher levels according to the latest snapshot of U.S. supplies, showing crude inventories in the week to Feb. 10 rose by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels, their highest level since June 2021.  Baker Hughes said the total count was still up 115.

Technically the trend of crude oil is negative. It has a support at 6150 levels ($80) and then 6000 levels ($77) while resistance at 6500 levels ($86) and then 6650 levels ($90). Traders can go to sell crude oil and it may test $77 to $80 levels very soon.

Base Metals
Copper price rose last week as investors looked ahead to an expected revival in demand in China. Copper prices increased by 1.20% and closed at 774.90 levels. Whereas other base metals closed on a negative note. Aluminium closed down by 2.21% and closed at 210.55 levels, Lead corrected by 1.06% and closed at 182.45 levels, zinc closed on a flat note by 0.24% at 271.25 levels.

For the next week we are expecting that Chinese demand again supports the base metals prices. Copper inventory is on lower levels on LME. Supplies are limited which provide support to the Copper and other base metals prices. For the next week copper has a support at 765 levels and then 750 levels while resistance at 782 levels and then 790 levels. We are expecting that copper may test again 782 to 785 levels in the next week.

USDINR
Strength in the dollar was the main reason that the rupee depreciated last week by 0.28% and closed at 82.77 levels. Robust US Data provides the support to the US Dollar. India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $8.31 billion to $566.94 billion in the week ending on February 10, according to the Reserve Bank of India's latest data released on Friday. India's reserves fell 8.3%, logging the biggest decline in more than 11 months. This was one of the main reasons that the rupee fell last week.

For the next week, the Dollar against the rupee has a strong support at 82.40 levels and then 82 levels, while resistance at 83.20 levels and then 83.60 levels. Rupee may trade between support and resistance levels as technical trend is sideways to up for the dollar.
 
NCDEX Jeera
Last week ncdex jeera corrected by 7.45% and closed at 30495 levels. Pressure of new crop arrival in the physical market is putting pressure on the jeera. Technical trend of jeera is negative. We are expecting it may trade towards the side and may test 29000 levels to 28500 levels very soon. It has a support at 28000 levels and resistance at 34000 levels.

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