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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 60001 as market participants continue to focus on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy in their fight against surging inflation. Pressure also seen on hawkish remarks from Fed officials and after the release of surveys showing that U.S. and euro zone business activity gathered pace in April. Markets put the chances of the U.S. central bank raising rates by 25 basis points at 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The U.S. Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is over May 2-3. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.” The combination of all three Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, Elevated domestic prices kept physical gold demand muted across Asian hubs, forcing dealers in India to offer discounts for a sixth straight week, with the Akshaya Tritiya festival also failing to offer much respite. Demand was around 20% lower than normal as fewer people made bookings for Akshaya. Dealers offered discounts of $16 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $22 discounts. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.32% to settle at 15478 while prices are up 156 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59715 and below same could see a test of 59428 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60161, a move above could see prices testing 60320.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59428-60320.
* Gold steadied as market participants continue to focus on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy in their fight against surging inflation.
* Some pressure seen on hawkish remarks from Fed officials
*Elevated domestic prices kept physical gold demand muted across Asian hubs

 

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 74996 as market participants prepared for the releases of US Q1 GDP reading and consumer confidence data for April later this week. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.19 in March of 2023, the same as in February, worse than forecasts of -0.02, but pointing to steady but below-trend growth. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and two categories deteriorated from February. The dollar index rose toward 102 after surveys showed US and eurozone business activity gained momentum in April, while several Fed officials supported the need for further policy tightening. Fed officials said inflation remains "far above" the central bank's 2% target. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated that more work needs to be done to bring down too-high inflation. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that "some additional tightening may be needed to ensure policy is restrictive enough" to support the Fed's dual mandate of keeping both unemployment and inflation low. Global demand for silver rose by 18% last year to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces, creating a huge supply deficit, the Silver Institute said, predicting more shortages in the years to come. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.2% to settle at 8874 while prices are up 342 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74385 and below same could see a test of 73774 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75342, a move above could see prices testing 75688.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73774-75688.
* Silver steadied as market participants prepared for the releases of US Q1 GDP reading and consumer confidence data
* Chicago Fed index points to steady economic growth
* China is planning to accelerate industrial-scale solar installations, which could boost photovoltaic silver demand


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 6487 as investors remained optimistic about China's fuel demand recovery towards the year's second half. At the same time, more output cuts planned by OPEC+ from May could constrict global markets further. U.S. crude stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since October 1983, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. crude stocks in the SPR fell to 367.96 million barrels, EIA data showed. U.S. shale crude oil production in the seven biggest shale basins is expected to rise in May to the highest on record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Oil output is set to rise 49,000 barrels per day to 9.33 million bpd, the EIA said. Production in the Permian is due to rise to 5.69 million bpd, the highest on record. Crude output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is expected to rise to 5.69 million bpd. While that would be a record high, oil output from the region is expected to gain by about 13,900 bpd from the previous month, the smallest increase since December, the data showed. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 18, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.6% to settle at 5009 while prices are up 89 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6367 and below same could see a test of 6248 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6552, a move above could see prices testing 6618.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6248-6618.
* Crude oil gains as investors remained optimistic about China's fuel demand recovery towards the year's second half.
* At the same time, more output cuts planned by OPEC+ from May could constrict global markets further.
* U.S. SPR crude stocks fall to lowest since Oct 1983 – EIA


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.46% at 204.3 on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand this week and next than previously expected. Prices were also up as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in April after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Speculators last week turned their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges into net long positions for the first time since June 2022. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.3 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. That was close to the monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through May 4 before turning near normal from May 5-9. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.49% to settle at 19379 while prices are up 4.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 198.4 and below same could see a test of 192.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.5, a move above could see prices testing 210.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 192.6-210.8.
* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand
* Prices were also up as the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in April
* Speculators turned their net short positions into net long positions for the first time since June 2022.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 757.9 on concerns that rising interest rates in the United States could eventually lead to lesser demand for metals. Strong business activities in the U.S. and the Euro zone reinforced bets of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as markets cautiously entered a week packed with economic data and central bank meetings. Meanwhile, an uneven economic recovery in China also weighed on demand for metals in the world's biggest metals consumer. China's refined copper production in March jumped 9% year-on-year to a record high of 1.05 million tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 34,000 tonnes over the March period, according to calculations based on the official data. Glencore reported a 5% fall in its copper production for the first quarter, owing to lower grades due to phasing of a pit at Collahuasi and delays associated with adverse weather conditions at Antamina. Copper prices, often seen as an economic bellwether, were weighed down by latest U.S. data showing a loss of labor market momentum, and slumping retail sales and manufacturing activity. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.63% to settle at 4780 while prices are down -2.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 755.3 and below same could see a test of 752.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 761.7, a move above could see prices testing 765.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 752.7-765.5.
* Copper dropped on worries over higher interest rates in US
* Strong business activities in the U.S. and the Euro zone reinforced bets of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
* Yangshan copper premium fell to $23 a tonne, its lowest since March 10.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.73% at 239 as China's slow recovery and recession fears prompted by higher interest rates weighed on demand prospects. Top consumer China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year. On the supply side, recent data showed that the country's refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March, as expected. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventories remained close to levels not seen since 1989. Last year's shutdowns of some European zinc smelters due to soaring power prices became a key driver behind low LME stocks. The smelter bottleneck was severe enough to generate a global supply shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes, according to ILZSG. The Bank of China Research Institute released the Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the Second Quarter of 2023 on April 3. According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, as the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic subsided, and the economic stabilisation policies were deployed, China’s economy continued to recover. China’s GDP was expected to grow by about 4.1% in the first quarter. Zinc ingot stocks in the Shanghai bonded zone were 2,000 mt, flat compared to April 14. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 39.11% to settle at 3788 while prices are down -4.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 237.6 and below same could see a test of 236.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 241.5, a move above could see prices testing 244.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 236.2-244.
* Zinc dropped amid China's slow recovery and recession fears
* Data showed that the country's refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM
*China imported 12,785 mt of refined zinc in March, down 40.10% on the year.



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 211.3 as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC expects consumer price inflation to pick up later this year but there is no basis for long term deflation or inflation in the country, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at PBOC, said at a news conference in Beijing. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year on year in March to 5.772 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers premiums in the April-June quarter of 2023 that are as much as 53% higher than the previous quarter, reflecting higher overseas prices. The Japanese buyers will pay premiums of between $125-$130 per tonne for shipments in April to June. Severe power shortages in China's southwestern Yunnan province are likely to cut aluminium production in the country's fourth-largest producing province. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 29.48% to settle at 2613 while prices are down -1.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 210.2 and below same could see a test of 209 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.6, a move above could see prices testing 213.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 209-213.8.
* Aluminium dropped as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession.
* China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19
* The central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the PBOC said


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 976.2 as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook. Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the firmness in prices. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 11.3 Rupees to end at 1143.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.14% to settle at 695 while prices are up 12.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 966.2 and below same could see a test of 956.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 983.9, a move above could see prices testing 991.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956.3-991.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 11.3 Rupees to end at 1143.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains as some short covering is expected in wake of weaker production outlook.
* Forecast of above normal temperature during Apr-May is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely that will support the prices.
*In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 6598 on muted demand against the adequate supplies in the local market. Millers are stockists are in wait and watch mood in wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6727.5 Rupees dropped -67.15 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.89% to settle at 13970 while prices are down -114 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6542 and below same could see a test of 6488 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6682, a move above could see prices testing 6768.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6488-6768.
* Turmeric prices remained under pressure on muted demand against the adequate supplies.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
*In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6727.5 Rupees dropped -67.15 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 40445 on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -354.35 Rupees to end at 40825.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.08% to settle at 7983 while prices are down -445 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 40110 and below same could see a test of 39780 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40870, a move above could see prices testing 41300.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 39780-41300.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -354.35 Rupees to end at 40825.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

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