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It was third straight series of negative close MoM; this clearly showcases market has lately been in a strong grip of bears. The June series started on an optimistic note and then due to follow-up buying Nifty marched towards 16700-16800 zone. But this was merely a formality as we witnessed strong bout of selling at these higher levels to plunge below the March series lows. In this process, Nifty went on to make a multi-month low around the 15200 mark in the midst of the series. Fortunately, the index recovered during the penultimate week to reclaim 15900 and then eventually settled with a cut of 2.62% to previous series close tad below 15800.

During the series, we observed some short addition in both the key indices but hardly few got rolled over to July series as we observe open interest reduction series on series this time. Rollover for Nifty and BankNifty stood at 75% and 87% respectively. Rollover percentage for banking index is slightly higher than the three months averages (Unlike Nifty which was lower) but if we consider the open interest, it seems most of the shorts are out of the system. Now let’s take a quick glance at FIIs activity which has been the talk of the town lately. Stronger hands inline to their recent trend, they continued to curb liquidity from the Indian equity market by selling to the tune of Rs. Fifty-eight thousand crores, which is highest since April 2020. Apart from this, they also added bearish bets which resulted their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ declining to lowest in last couple of years. However, we did observe some buying thereafter but on the final day of June series they preferred rolling over shorts as a result this ratio stands at 15% now as comparted to 45% at the start of June series. Considering the overall data and the price action so far, it seems we are stuck in a broad range of 15500-16000 and breaching the same in either direction shall give some visibility on the near-term trend.

NIFTY & PCR Graph

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