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Bullion Outlook

Gold

* Gold prices are likely to continue with its upward trend supported by safe haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions and fear over potential trade war hurting economic growth.

• Moreover, major central banks will continue to ease monetary policy as inflations touching near central banks targets

* Geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Eastern Europe may continue to make gold valuable as hedge against uncertainties.

* Additionally, central banks are likely to continue with their buying spree, diversifying their reserves

* A strong dollar and rise in US treasury yields may provide some headwinds to gold prices. Trump’s proposed policies are inflationary in nature which would limit Fed form cutting rates

* Spot Gold is likely to rise further towards $2900-$3000 in coming months

Trade war concerns may stir up demand for safe haven

Silver

* Silver prices are likely to move higher as market is likely to remain in deficit for fourth consecutive year.

* Demand in the industrial sector is likely to grow amid green economy applications particularly photovoltaics, electrification of vehicles, investments in infrastructure, such as charging stations, power grids and rapid adoption of AI technologies

* Moreover, investment demand may surge amid rate cut across major economies, hopes for more stimulus packages from China and elevated geopolitical tensions

* Spot Silver is likely to rise further towards $37-$38 level in coming months

Silver to remain supported amid rising industrial demand

Energy Outlook

Crude Oil

* Crude oil prices likely to slip further on demand concerns and surplus outlook.

* Market is expected to remain in surplus next year despite of OPEC+ members delaying the production increases. The growth in oil production next year will come mostly from non-OPEC countries.

* Additionally, OPEC is sitting on sizable spare production capacity which can protect market even in the event of any supply disruption

* Moreover, potential trade war in Donald trumps second term will have negative effect on economic growth hurting demand

* Only risk to the prices would be any disruption of oil flows through strait of Hormuz, as Persian Gulf supply move through this route

* MCX Crude oil prices may dip further towards Rs.5200 levels in coming months

Base Metals Outlook

Copper

* Copper prices are likely to remain under pressure on demand concerns from China. Chinese economy is already facing weak domestic consumption amid prolonged property crisis and deflation fears. Donald Trump victory has added more concerns with a threat of tariffs on Chinese products.

* Moreover, refined copper market is forecasted to remain in surplus.

* Additionally, Copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges remain elevated signaling well supplied market

* However, sharp fall in prices may be capped if Beijing unveil stronger than expected stimulus packages

* On MCX Copper prices are likely to correct further towards Rs.690 level as long as it stays below strong resistance of Rs.860 level

Aluminum 

• Aluminum prices are likely to rise further as market is expected to remain in deficit.

* Russian Aluminium producer Rusal plans to reduce its outputs by more than 6%, due to soaring cost of alumina.

* Removal of aluminium products exports tax rebate by China will restrict flows from the country

* Inventories at LME registered warehouses have been diminishing persistently

* Additionally, rising demand from EV’s, renewable power and electric grid infrastructure would support prices

* MCX Aluminium is likely to rise back towards Rs.280 level as long as it stays above Rs.210 level

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