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Nifty : 19727

Technical Outlook

• The index started the session on a muted note tracking subdued global cues. However, buying demand in the second half helped index to helped index to close at four week’s high. The, daily price action formed a sizable bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating follow through strength. The index has been sustaining well above 20 days EMA after one months, highlighting rejuvenation of upward momentum

• Going ahead, we expect index to endure its northbound journey and gradually head towards psychological mark of 20000. Key point to highlight is that, index has witnessed faster pace of retracement, as past fifteen days decline got retraced in just four sessions, indicating robust price structure. The recent healthy retracement helped index to cool off the overbought conditions in large caps while broader market relatively outperformed. Therefore, we expect large caps to regain upward momentum in coming sessions. Thus, buying on dips would continue to act as prudent strategy.

• The Nifty midcap and small cap indices have been showing immense strength by enduring sequence of record highs. We expect broader market to continue with its relative outperformance amid overbought conditions owing to past five months spectacular rally of ~40%

• The emergence of buying demand from 50 days EMA showcase inherent strength that makes us confident to revise support base upward at 19200 being confluence of:

• a) 61.8% retracement of current up move (18645-19991), at 19160

• b) Past two weeks identical low is placed at 19224

• c) 50 days EMA is placed at 19314

Nifty Bank: 44878

Technical Outlook

• The price action for the day formed sizeable bull candle as buying demand amid heavyweights from private and PSU space led index higher at three week high and higher band of recent consolidation placed at 45000

• Going forward, we expect index to overcome hurdle at 45000 levels in a gradual manner and head towards 45800 , therefore buying dips template is recommended with key support of 43500

• Our view is backed by following key observations

• Index is holding key support around 43500 over past three weeks as it is 38 . 2 % retracement of entire rally since March 2023 lows (38613 - 46369 ) coinciding with June swing low at 43345 and 100 -day ema

• Past six weeks corrective phase has been shallow and led prices to oversold conditions . Shallow retracement indicate continuation of structural uptrend

• PSU Banking index has spent five weeks in a consolidation . While midcap banks are already outperforming we expect buying demand to emerge in large cap banks as well

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