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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 50586 from a strong dollar and elevated Treasury yields as investors continued to bet on further Federal Reserve tightening to bring decades-high inflation under control, even at the risk of some economic pain. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points, the biggest jump in 22 years, while Chair Jerome Powell added the bank was not considering a 75 basis-point move in the future. However, he assured Americans that the central bank will do what it takes to curb surging inflation, while acknowledging that this could risk economic pain. Investors remain concerned about the implications of an aggressive tightening on a backdrop of soaring inflation and a challenging growth outlook. The Perth Mint's gold product sales in April fell 34% from the previous month, while silver sales rose, the refiner said. Monthly sales of gold coins and minted bars fell to 80,941 ounces from 121,997 ounces in March. Sales of silver products stood at 2,119,491 ounces in April, up 28%. The physical gold market in India flipped to a premium this week as a price dip helped drive demand in the run up to the Akshaya Tritiya festival, while COVID-induced curbs muted activity in top consumer China. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.39% to settled at 8419 while prices down -373 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50358 and below same could see a test of 50131 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50965, a move above could see prices testing 51345.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50131-51345.
Gold remained under pressure from a strong dollar and elevated Treasury yields
Investors continued to bet on further Federal Reserve tightening to bring decades-high inflation under control, even at the risk of some economic pain.
The Perth Mint's gold product sales in April fell 34% from the previous month

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.43% at 60618 as investor await Wednesday's release of the U.S. inflation data that could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The yield on U.S. 10-year bonds rose to 3.18% for the first time since November 2018, amid rising expectations of tighter policy by global central banks. Investors remain concerned about the implications of an aggressive tightening on a backdrop of soaring inflation and a challenging growth outlook. The Perth Mint's gold product sales in April fell 34% from the previous month, while silver sales rose, the refiner said. Monthly sales of gold coins and minted bars fell to 80,941 ounces from 121,997 ounces in March. Sales of silver products stood at 2,119,491 ounces in April, up 28%. U.S. worker productivity fell at its steepest pace since 1947 in the first quarter, while growth in unit labor costs accelerated, indicating that rising wage pressures will continue contributing to keeping inflation elevated for a while. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, plunged at a 7.5% annualized rate last quarter, the deepest since the third quarter of 1947, the Labor Department said. Data for the fourth quarter was revised slightly lower to show productivity growing at a 6.3% rate instead of the previously reported 6.6% pace. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.15% to settled at 16335 while prices down -879 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60005 and below same could see a test of 59393 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61614, a move above could see prices testing 62611.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 59393-62611.
Silver dropped as investor await Wednesday's release of the U.S. inflation data that could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The yield on U.S. 10-year bonds rose to 3.18% for the first time since November 2018
The Perth Mint's silver product sales in April rose 28%

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.82% at 7754 as the market balanced impending European Union sanctions on Russian oil with demand concerns related to coronavirus lockdowns in China, a strong dollar and growing recession risks. The latest data showed China's export growth had slowed to single digits, their weakest in almost two years, as the country extended lockdowns. Financial markets are also heeding concerns that some European economies could suffer distress if Russian oil imports were curtailed further, or if Russia retaliated by cutting off gas supplies. German officials are quietly preparing for any sudden halt in Russian gas supplies, Reuters reported. A halt would trigger a deep recession and cost half a million jobs. Geopolitical tensions also remained on investors' radar, with Russian President Vladimir Putin defending Moscow's "special military operation" in Ukraine. In his inaugural speech on the occasion of Victory Day, Putin said it was "necessary" amid war threats from the Western nations. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to May 3, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 165 contracts to 258,923 during the period. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -32.06% to settled at 3732 while prices down -225 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7583 and below same could see a test of 7413 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7994, a move above could see prices testing 8235.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7413-8235.
Crude oil prices fell as the market balanced impending European Union sanctions on Russian oil with demand concerns in China
EU members struggle to reach deal on Russian oil ban
U.S. crude, products inventories likely fell last week

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 563.1 as output increases and the weather turns milder than previously forecast. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That output has increased in recent days and compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 90.6 bcfd this week to 90.4 bcfd next week and 89.5 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally milder. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.3 bcfd so far in May from 12.2 bcfd in April, but remains below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 97.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 100.86 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.57 bcfd in 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.28% to settled at 3578 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 521.5 and below same could see a test of 479.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 589.3, a move above could see prices testing 615.4.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 479.8-615.4.
Natural gas dropped as output increases and the weather turns milder than previously forecast.
U.S. natgas output, demand to rise in 2022 – EIA
The U.S. EIA said utilities added 77 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 29.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 753.35 amid worries over COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China and weaker global economic growth. Adding to concerns over global economic growth, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks raised interest rates last week to fight soaring inflation. China's two largest cities tightened COVID-19 curbs, fuelling public angst and even questions about the legality of its uncompromising battle with the virus that has battered the world's second largest economy. Central banks in the United States, Britain and Australia raised interest rates last week to fight soaring inflation. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he expects the U.S. central bank to deliver two or three more half-percentage-point interest rate hikes but won't need to use anything bigger, noting some hopeful signs on inflation. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.04 billion in April, the Andean country's central bank said. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.04 billion in April, the Andean country's central bank said. China's copper imports in April fell 4% from the same month a year earlier as demand slumped, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.56% to settled at 4310 while prices down -2.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 745.2 and below same could see a test of 737.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 762.5, a move above could see prices testing 771.7.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 737.1-771.7.
Copper prices dropped amid worries over COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China and weaker global economic growth.
Adding to concerns over global economic growth, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks raised interest rates last week to fight soaring inflation.
Chile copper exports total $4.04 bln in April

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 310.4 on worries that higher interest rates globally and COVID-19 lockdowns in top metals consumer China will hurt global economic growth and metals demand. On the macro front, SMM believes that the outlook for inflation expectations that drive transactions is not optimistic, and if inflation does not show a pivot, balance sheet shrinking is still likely to intensify. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI growth slowed down, the eurozone economic sentiment index in April further decline, OECD CLI took the lead to recede, which may foreshadow the subsequent pressure on demand for commodities. In April 2022, China refined zinc output stood at 495,500mt, with a decrease of 400 mt MoM or 0.08% and a decrease of 1.89% YoY. From January to April 2022, the combined refined zinc output was 1.967 million mt, a decrease of 1.89% year on year. In addition, the output in March was revised to 495,900 mt, an increase of 8.19% MoM and a decrease of 0.19% YoY. The output of domestic refined zinc decreased slightly month-on-month in April and was less than expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.81% to settled at 1168 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 306.4 and below same could see a test of 302.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 316.1, a move above could see prices testing 321.8.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 302.4-321.8.
Zinc prices fell on worries that higher interest rates globally and COVID-19 lockdowns in China will hurt global economic growth and metals demand.
The global manufacturing PMI growth slowed down, the eurozone economic sentiment index in April further decline
China refined zinc output stood at 495,500mt, with a decrease of 400 mt MoM or 0.08% and a decrease of 1.89% YoY.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.73% at 2211 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 46 while prices down -62 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2211 and below same could see a test of 2211 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2211, a move above could see prices testing 2211.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2211-2211.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 232 as investors shed riskier assets on worries about higher interest rates and their impact on economic growth, while the dollar held near 20-year highs. Tightening COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China and fears of weaker global economic growth dampened the outlook for industrial metals' demand. China's two largest cities tightened COVID-19 curbs, fuelling public angst and even questions about the legality of its uncompromising battle with the virus that has battered the world's second largest economy. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he expects the U.S. central bank to deliver two or three more half-percentage-point interest rate hikes but won't need to use anything bigger, noting some hopeful signs on inflation. China produced 3.298 million mt of aluminium in April, up 1.47% on the year. The daily output averaged 109,900 mt, up 3,000 mt on the month, up 1,600 mt on the year. The output totalled 12.763 million mt from January to April 2022, a decrease of 1.13% on the year. Compared with the first quarter of 2022, the domestic production resumption progress and the growth rate of new production capacity slowed down in April. The added output was mainly found in Yunnan, Guangxi and other places, where new production capacity, production capacity replacement and resumed capacity totalled 704,000 mt. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.43% to settled at 2683 while prices down -1.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 229.1 and below same could see a test of 226.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 235, a move above could see prices testing 238.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 226.2-238.
Aluminium dropped as investors shed riskier assets on worries about higher interest rates and their impact on economic growth
Tightening COVID-19 restrictions in China and fears of weaker global economic growth dampened the outlook for industrial metals' demand.
China produced 3.298 million mt of aluminium in April, up 1.47% on the year.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.21% at 1133.7 as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 20.6 Rupees to end at 1221.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.58% to settled at 1030 while prices up 13.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1122.5 and below same could see a test of 1111.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1142.4, a move above could see prices testing 1151.1.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1111.3-1151.1.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 20.6 Rupees to end at 1221.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 8232 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8430.2 Rupees dropped -96.85 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.19% to settled at 12670 while prices down -22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8178 and below same could see a test of 8124 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8316, a move above could see prices testing 8400.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8124-8400.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8430.2 Rupees dropped -96.85 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 20950 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world. Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022. The main reason for the low yield and low acreage under cultivation is that during the cumin sowing period (October-December 2021) farmers shifted to gram and mustard whose prices were higher than that of cumin. Secondly, excess rainfall in the key cumin belts of Dwarka, Banaskantha and Kutch in Gujarat, and Jodhpur and Nagaur in Rajasthan increased the probability of wilt attack, preventing farmers from sowing the crop. Unjha mandi in Gujarat, which accounts for ~40% of India’s cumin arrivals, witnessed a 60% on-year decline in arrivals in March 2022. While arrivals for April (1st – 23rd) show ~38% increase on-year, it is on a low base of last year where there were no arrivals in the second half of April amid the pandemic. Fall in exports will put pressure on global price as well. Short supply from India, higher prices in Turkey and estimated lower production in Syria will support the bullish trend. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -112.8 Rupees to end at 21258.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.65% to settled at 13314 while prices down -160 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20790 and below same could see a test of 20635 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21145, a move above could see prices testing 21345.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20635-21345.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world.
Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -112.8 Rupees to end at 21258.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 47440 on profit booking after prices gained from all time high level due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Cotton Association of India has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 8.00 lakh bales to 33.5 million bales from its previous estimate of 34.3 million bales. (One bale=170 kgs.) In the past three months, they have revised the production estimate by 23 lakh bales from their original estimate of 36 million bales. The domestic consumption for the crop year 2021-22 has been reduced by the CAI by 5 lakh bales to 34 million bales. Ending stock as of 30th September 2022 is estimated by the Committee at 4 million bales versus the previous year’s level of 7.5 million bales. Union Minister for Commerce and Industry and Textiles Piyush Goyal will hold a meeting with stakeholders of the cotton textiles value chain on Wednesday in New Delhi. According to Textiles Secretary Upendra Prasad Singh, the Minister has planned a meeting with all stakeholders of the cotton textile sector to discuss the issue of high cotton and yarn prices, the measures that can be taken, etc. “Any decision can be taken only after the meeting,” he said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 470 Rupees to end at 47590 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.02% to settled at 3346 while prices down -40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 47090 and below same could see a test of 46730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47900, a move above could see prices testing 48350.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 46730-48350.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained from all time high level due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 8.00 lakh bales to 33.5 million bales
Union Minister for Commerce and Industry and Textiles Piyush Goyal will hold a meeting with stakeholders of the cotton textiles value chain on Wednesday
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 470 Rupees to end at 47590 Rupees.

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