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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 55301 as dollar index fell after weekly claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest since December, easing concerns about a sharp rise in interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than anticipated in light of strong economic data and that the central bank would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed. Investors are now focused on the February non-farm payrolls report due on Friday, which is expected to show the US economy created 205K, the least since December of 2020, after a 517K rise in January. Indian retail demand for gold improved in February 2023 supported by a three per cent fall in local prices and wedding purchases, said World Gold Council (WGC) in a report. Improved market sentiment bumped local prices back into premium during the third week of February for the first time since November 2022, the WGC said. The average discount narrowed to $4/oz from $29/oz in January 2023. Central banks show continued demand for gold in 2023, as per a recent report from the World Gold Council (WGC), which noted that the world’s central banks accumulated 31 tons of the precious metal in January. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.78% to settle at 9385 while prices are up 390 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 54915 and below same could see a test of 54528 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55545, a move above could see prices testing 55788.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 54528-55788.
* Gold gains as dollar index fell after weekly claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest since December.
* Fed’s Powell warned that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than anticipated in light of strong economic data
* Gold demand in India in February improved: WGC

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 61984 ahead of the U.S. jobs data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a tight labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended March 4, the Labor Department said. Claims had remained below 200,000 for seven straight weeks, indicating that high-profile job cuts in the technology sector had not had a material impact on the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his message of higher and potentially faster interest rate hikes, but emphasized that debate was still underway with a decision hinging on data to be issued before the U.S. central bank's policy meeting in two weeks. Market participants are currently pricing in a 50-basis-point hike at the U.S. central bank's March 21-22 policy meeting. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected last month. Separate data showed U.S. job openings fell in January. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.17% to settle at 17725 while prices are up 167 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61526 and below same could see a test of 61068 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62416, a move above could see prices testing 62848.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61068-62848.
* Silver prices edged up ahead of the U.S. jobs data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
* US weekly jobless claims rise more than expected
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his message of higher and potentially faster interest rate hikes

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 6277 on increased worries Fed may go too far with its interest rate hikes, which could cause a recession and reduce future oil demand. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell last week, breaking a 10-week streak of builds, while distillate inventories rose to the highest level in over a year, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 478.5 million barrels in the week ending March 3, compared with expectations in a poll for a 0.4 million-barrel rise. U.S. weekly unaccounted for crude oil adjustments swung by the second most on record last week, according to the EIA, which has distorted some of the data. U.S. crude production and demand will rise in 2023 as Chinese travel drives consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA projected that crude production will rise by 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.44 bpd in 2023 and by another 190,000 bpd to 12.63 million bpd next year. Despite its forecast that Russian oil production in March will decline by more than the cuts the nation announced, the EIA revised up forecasts of Russian oil production up by 400,000 bpd as its recent petroleum exports outpace expectations. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.3% to settle at 9703 while prices are down -28 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6221 and below same could see a test of 6165 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6368, a move above could see prices testing 6459.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6165-6459.
* Crude oil dropped on increased worries Fed may go too far with its interest rate hikes, which could reduce future oil demand.
* U.S. crude inventories fall amid another large adjustment – EIA
* U.S. crude output, demand to rise in 2023, EIA says

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 209.2 after the latest weather forecasts called for less cold over the next two weeks than previously expected and last week's storage withdrawal was much smaller than usual for this time of year. That lack of price movement came even though the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas increased in recent days, after declining earlier in the week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 84 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 3. That was a little more than the 80-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 126 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 101 bcf. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder-than-normal through March 24 after some near- to warmer-than-normal days from March 9-12. That is a warmer forecast than previously expected. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.76% to settle at 32753 while prices are down -1.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 205 and below same could see a test of 200.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.6, a move above could see prices testing 222.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 200.9-222.1.
* Natural gas dropped after the latest weather forecasts called for less cold over the next two weeks than previously expected
* The U.S. EIA said utilities pulled 84 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 3.
* The market has been extremely volatile in recent weeks as traders bet on the latest weather forecasts.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 753.95 as demand for copper, is expected to pick up amid a recovery in manufacturing activities in China. China is poised to export a significant volume of copper in coming weeks, a relatively infrequent occurrence that underscores a tepid demand recovery in the biggest market. At least four major smelters are planning to deliver between 23,000 and 45,000 tons of refined copper in total to London Metal Exchange depots in Asia. Data released by the Chilean National Copper Commission (Cochilco) showed that Chile's copper production in January was 437,900 mt, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Peru's mines are starting to transport their copper concentrate to ports for export once again after three months of protests that have snarled shipments, Energy and Mines Minister Oscar Vera said. The minister told that he had held meetings with firms, adding that shipments from mines like MMG Ltd's Las Bambas, which produces some 2% of the world's copper, were expected to reach Peru's coast in the coming days. China's unwrought copper imports in the first two months of 2023 fell 9.3% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as higher global prices lowered buying appetite. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.13% to settle at 4645 while prices are up 0.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 750.1 and below same could see a test of 746 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 757.7, a move above could see prices testing 761.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 746-761.2.
* Copper gains as demand for copper, is expected to pick up amid a recovery in manufacturing activities in China.
* China copper exports to jump in rare deliveries to LME depots
* Chile's copper production in January was 437,900 mt, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 263 as buyers in north China were not enthusiastic about picking up cargoes due to local production restriction for environmental protection. Last week, companies that cut their production were Yunnan Yuntong Zinc, Chihong Zinc & Germanium (Huize county, Qujing city) and Luoping Zinc and Electricity. Enterprises that are going to carry out maintenance in March are Mengzi Mining and Metallurgy, Huludao Zinc Industry and Gansu Baohui. In addition, there are rumours that recycling companies have significantly reduced their production. According to recent research, the recycling companies in Hunan generally maintain stable but low capacity utilisation rates amid the high electricity prices. The global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised deficit of 66,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 119,500 tonnes in November. During the whole of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 306,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 204,000 tonnes in 2021. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank is likely to increase interest rates more than previously anticipated to tame inflation. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.44% to settle at 3220 while prices are down -0.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 261.6 and below same could see a test of 260.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 264.4, a move above could see prices testing 265.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 260.1-265.7.
* Zinc dropped as buyers in north China were not enthusiastic about picking up cargoes due to local production restriction.
* There are rumours that recycling companies have significantly reduced their production.
* Global zinc market deficit climbs to 100,500 T in December – ILZSG


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 205.3 amid completed production cuts in China's major producing provinces. Yunnan smelters were said to have satisfied the necessary output cuts to comply with power rationing requirements. Pressure also seen after hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and expectations of healthy demand from top consumer China. Powell said the U.S. central bank is likely to increase interest rates more than anticipated to tame inflation. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $125-$145 per tonne for April-June primary metal shipments, up 45%-71% from this quarter, five sources directly involved in quarterly pricing talks said. The offers, if agreed by buyers, would mark the first increase in six quarters and the highest level since the October-December quarter in 2022, reflecting a view from producers that demand from automakers is set to pick up. Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. For the January-March quarter, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $85-$86 per tonne , down 13-14% from the prior quarter. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.09% to settle at 4010 while prices are down -1.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.7 and below same could see a test of 204.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.3, a move above could see prices testing 207.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.1-207.3.
* Aluminium prices dropped after aluminium smelters in Yunnan have completed production cuts
* Yunnan smelters were said to have satisfied the necessary output cuts to comply with power rationing requirements.
* Global aluminium producers offer Q2 premiums of $125 – $145/T


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.81% at 1040.3 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 10 Rupees to end at 1193.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.71% to settle at 856 while prices are up 8.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1027.7 and below same could see a test of 1015 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1048.4, a move above could see prices testing 1056.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1015-1056.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 1193.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 6906 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6862.05 Rupees dropped -62.35 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.57% to settle at 12265 while prices are down -12 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6862 and below same could see a test of 6820 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6934, a move above could see prices testing 6964.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6820-6964.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6862.05 Rupees dropped -62.35 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 30650 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 161.9 Rupees to end at 30272.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.57% to settle at 4347 while prices are up 50 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30320 and below same could see a test of 29985 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30870, a move above could see prices testing 31085.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29985-31085.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 161.9 Rupees to end at 30272.85 Rupees per 100 kg.

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