MPC first cut: Balanced, non-committal and data-dependent Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
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Below is Perspective on RBI Monetary Policy Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Service
“The budget has ensured, the fiscal impulse is maximized to improve potential growth, while signalling adherence to medium-term fiscal sustainability. This requires continued financial sector reforms, better resource allocation. Expenditure focus has been on rural, welfare, infrastructure, PLIs, and energy transition. Capex spend has picked up significantly to 3.3% of GDP and is almost double of Pre-Pandemic prints. This especially implies larger fiscal multiplier on employment and growth and will support crowding in of still-lacking private capex.
The tax benefits have been tweaked to encourage individuals to move towards new tax regime, and to provide relief to middle class, while maximum marginal rate has also been reduced to 39% from 42.7% to give relief to the highest income strata. While the government is foregoing effective revenue of Rs350bn, this could have a consumption multiplier effect albeit at the margin, in the economy that’s seeing fading consumption growth.”
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