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Perspective on GDP Q1 FY24 by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Below The Perspective on GDP Q1 FY24 by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “While the Apr-June Q growth print is in line with our expectations, the growth mix was a bit of a surprise. Ideally, the YoY fall in commodity prices should have boosted manufacturing firms’ operating profits and thereby lifted the value added growth of manufacturing sector. Thus, the disappointment on that front was surprising. On the other hand, strong government capex ...
Perspective on GDP Q1 FY24 by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial
Perspective on GDP Q1 FY24 by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
1/09/2023 11:25:37 AM
Perspective on MPC by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below The Perspective on MPC by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services   MPC minutes: Caution but no action ahead (1) Cautious tone and stress on supply side ? The August MPC meeting minutes have cautious traces, but not ominous enough to change the narrative on net. The choice of policy flexibility, vigilance and focus on the durable elements of inflation dominated the minutes. ? Most of them admitted that RBI could not...
Perspective on MPC by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on MPC by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
25/08/2023 4:25:25 PM
Perspective on CPI data by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Below The Perspective on CPI data by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial “The bulk of the increases is being seen in perishables, like vegetables, which, given the surge in tomato prices, has produced the highest sequential monthly print on record.  Non-perishables in the food basket are also seeing consistently higher prices, in particular cereals, pulses, and spices. Until early august there were no signs of any sequential moderation in food prices, However, the Govt int...
Perspective on CPI data by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial
Perspective on CPI data by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
15/08/2023 9:24:28 AM
PSU bank stocks best performers in trade while private sector banks down after RBI raises CRR provision Public sector banks are up in trade but private sector banks are down following RBI's decision to hike CRR provision to curb liquidity. Among private sector banks, Indusind Bank is top loser in Sensex, down 1.5 per cent. ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank are also trading down. On the other hand, PSU banks are flying. Indian Overseas Bank is up more than 11 per cent, Central Bank of India is up more than 7 per cent, UCO Bank is up more than 5 per cent, Punjab and Sind Bank is up 4....
PSU bank stocks best performers in trade while private sector banks down after RBI raises CRR provision
PSU bank stocks best performers in trade while private sector banks down after RBI raises CRR provision
Source: IANS
11/08/2023 2:09:29 PM
India central bank to withdraw 1 trln rupees via incremental CRR The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will withdraw nearly one trillion rupees ($12.07 billion) from the banking system through a temporary increase in the amount of funds lenders set aside with the central bank, as it tries to keep a lid on inflation. Earlier in the day, India's Monetary Policy Committee kept key policy rates unchanged but RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das asked banks to hold an incremental cash reserve ratio (CRR) of 10% on increase in deposits between May 19 and July 28, with ...
India central bank to withdraw 1 trln rupees via incremental CRR
India central bank to withdraw 1 trln rupees via incremental CRR
Source: Reuters
10/08/2023 3:47:58 PM
Rate cut may not materialise before last quarter of FY24 Given such uncertainty on the inflation front, the likelihood of an extended pause on interest rates has been reinforced, says Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist, and Head- Research, Acuite Ratings & Research. “In our opinion, any possible rate cut may not materialize before the last quarter of FY24. The liquidity will be slightly tighter than expected in the near term due to the ICRR imposition and this may lead to some increase in short-term rates,” Chowdhury said. Clear...
Rate cut may not materialise before last quarter of FY24
Rate cut may not materialise before last quarter of FY24
Source: IANS
10/08/2023 2:11:41 PM
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services Below the Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services   Quick impact of Incremental CRR   * Imposition of Incremental CRR (ICRR) of 10% on NDTL (for period of May 19 to July 28 ) would imply a temporary liquidity depletion of ~Rs1.15tn/Rs996bn (ex of HDFC twin merger). This assumes an effective CRR of 14.5% for the period concerned (4.5%+10%).   * However, if we assume the ICRR of 10% to i...
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
10/08/2023 12:58:42 PM
Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services   “The sharp sequential uptick in food-led Inflation could spill over till August, implying pressure on headline print will stay. There isn't much RBI can do in the food supply management but this adds pressure on them to stay vigilant on domestic dynamics. Global externalities have already pressed them to signal a wait-and-watch guidance and the transient f...
Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
13/07/2023 9:03:47 AM
Perspective on BoP by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below Perspective on BoP By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services   “We expect import consolidation to continue, with exports also likely to remain frail, while services surplus would strongly offset the merchandise trade deficit, with net transfers moderating. For FY24E, we maintain our CAD/GDP to ~1.4% (USD52bn), owing to lower prices for oil and other commodities, along with easing domestic/global demand and robust & broadening ga...
Perspective on BoP by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on BoP by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
27/06/2023 5:55:59 PM
India central bank to hold rates, markets on guard for any shift in stance The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely seen holding key rates steady on Thursday but commentary around the future trajectory of interest rates and banking system liquidity will be closely monitored by market participants. The monetary policy committee (MPC), which has three members from the RBI and three external members, is expected to leave the repo rate at 6.50% for a second straight meeting. All 64 economists polled by Reuters expect no change. The repo rate has been raised by a ...
India central bank to hold rates, markets on guard for any shift in stance
India central bank to hold rates, markets on guard for any shift in stance
Source: Reuters
8/06/2023 9:33:55 AM
RBI not to remove its finger from repo rate pause button: Experts The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not remove its finger from the repo rate pause button it had hit in April 2023, said experts there by ruling out the possibility of a rate reduction. "It is unlikely that the RBI will precede the Fed (US Federal Reserve) in reversing its course of rate hikes. However, MPC may soften its tone, on net amid (1) improving domestic inflation outlook (and a possible downward revision in its forecast), (2) improving ex...
RBI not to remove its finger from repo rate pause button: Experts
RBI not to remove its finger from repo rate pause button: Experts
Source: IANS
6/06/2023 4:20:49 PM
The better than expected GDP print for 4QFY23 is helped by healthier capital formation Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below Perspective on Q4 FY23 GDP Data By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The better than expected GDP print for 4QFY23 is helped by healthier capital formation and more importantly, net exports which appears to be not-a-drag on growth, as usually seen in the cost given India is a net importer. However, weaker private consumption is still a worry albeit looks a bit difficult to fathom, when one compares robust value added growth of consumption ...
The better than expected GDP print for 4QFY23 is helped by healthier capital formation Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
The better than expected GDP print for 4QFY23 is helped by healthier capital formation Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
31/05/2023 8:46:59 PM
India's GDP growth in FY23 estimated at 7.2% India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for FY23 is estimated at 7.2 per cent, said the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Wednesday. According to NSO, the growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.2 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2021-22. The GDP growth during the fourth quarter of 2022-23 was at 6.1 per cent, NSO said. The NSO said the GDP in the year 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 160.0...
India's GDP growth in FY23 estimated at 7.2%
India's GDP growth in FY23 estimated at 7.2%
Source: IANS
31/05/2023 7:54:36 PM
There are nascent signs of consumption recovery, however it is still led by urban more than rural Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Kindly find appended below perspective by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services on Expectations on the Upcoming Q4 GDP Data “Growth in 4q is expected to be driven by momentum in trade, hotel and transportation while government spending may have also picked up. There are nascent signs of consumption recovery, however it is still led by urban more than rural. Besides, net exports was less of a drag to growth amid lower trade deficit and higher services...
There are nascent signs of consumption recovery, however it is still led by urban more than rural Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
There are nascent signs of consumption recovery, however it is still led by urban more than rural Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
27/05/2023 2:23:58 PM
Perspective On RBI announcing dividend for 2022 2023 By Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below perspective by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services on RBI announcing dividend for 2022 2023. “RBI has approved Rs 87,416 crore as a dividend payment to the government for 2022-23. The figure is in line with our estimate. We were expecting anything between Rs 80,000 cr to Rs 95,000 cr. The fact that they have increased the contingency buffer as a percentage of a balance sheet from a 5.5-6% probably has led to it remaining at the lower band of ...
Perspective On RBI announcing dividend for 2022 2023 By Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective On RBI announcing dividend for 2022 2023 By Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
19/05/2023 5:38:32 PM
India cenbank surplus transfer to govt surges in FY23, but lags mkt expectations The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) board on Friday approved a surplus transfer of 874.16 billion rupees ($10.69 billion) to the government for the fiscal year ended March 31, less than the market estimate of at least 1 trillion rupees. The government had budgeted a dividend of 480 billion rupees for fiscal 2023 from the central bank and state-run banks, while analysts had projected the number to be in the 700 billion rupees to 900 billion rupees range. The RBI transferred 303.07 bill...
India cenbank surplus transfer to govt surges in FY23, but lags mkt expectations
India cenbank surplus transfer to govt surges in FY23, but lags mkt expectations
Source: Reuters
19/05/2023 5:25:18 PM
Inflation averaging 5.3% in FY24 and core undershooting headline to average around 5.1% Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below Perspective on IIP and CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The easing of headline and core inflation in near-expected lines, while positive, is still implying inflation average has overshot RBI's 4Q estimate.  However there has been a clear departure from the RBI's past guidance which was more anchored to domestic underlying inflation dynamics (which they in so far found unsettling) than the consistent policy r...
Inflation averaging 5.3% in FY24 and core undershooting headline to average around 5.1% Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Inflation averaging 5.3% in FY24 and core undershooting headline to average around 5.1% Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
12/04/2023 6:50:19 PM
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below Perspective on RBI MPC announcement By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services *Non-committal pause, but pause for good* * The unchanged policy rate and stance has been met by *non-committal forward guidance*, clearly giving more stress to fluid and uncertain global situation, implying macro assessments might require appropriate adjustments ahead from the policy perspective. However, the Governor stressed that their inflation fight is not ...
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
6/04/2023 12:56:02 PM
After delivering 25 bps hike in repo rate, RBI to change its stance The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to change its stance after taking a guard against inflation by delivering a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the repo rate on April 6, said economists. "There will be a 25 bps increase (in repo rate) and change in stance -- to neutral. The decision won't be unanimous as last time. There will be a pause after the hike," Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda told IANS. The MPC is likely ...
After delivering 25 bps hike in repo rate, RBI to change its stance
After delivering 25 bps hike in repo rate, RBI to change its stance
Source: IANS
4/04/2023 3:25:12 PM
The MPC will likely deliver 25bps hike, with the decision possibly getting more divided in the form of vote split Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is on RBI MPC Preview By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Services RBI MPC Preview: Prepping for a dovish hike *The fast-evolving world order has meant that policy repricing keeps markets on the toes, and they keep swinging on the timing and extent of policy pivots.  However, on net, even as global tightening is still expected, the firm anticipation of near-ending (and quick reversal) of the rate cycle in the west has ease...
The MPC will likely deliver 25bps hike, with the decision possibly getting more divided in the form of vote split Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
The MPC will likely deliver 25bps hike, with the decision possibly getting more divided in the form of vote split Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
3/04/2023 6:20:42 PM
UK inflation showing systemic contagion Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service Below is Q3 FY23 GDP Data By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Services ”UK inflation showing systemic contagion. Core  is up 0.9% ...YoY back to highs of 6.2%. the surprise print was significant in both its magnitude n breadth. BoE may be pressed to follow ECB suit tomorrow amid this Inflation upside surprise. Had there been easing in inflation, the case of looking closer owing to mkt stress and some data weakness would have been there for BoE...
UK inflation showing systemic contagion Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
UK inflation showing systemic contagion Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
22/03/2023 5:19:14 PM
The lower than expected Quarterly numbers have been muddled amid sharp data revisions Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service Below is Q3 FY23 GDP Data By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Services “The lower-than-expected Quarterly numbers have been muddled amid sharp data revisions, usually seen with the release of this print each year; We had seen the same magnitude of revisions in the past two years, which were affected by Covid disruptions.”   Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
The lower than expected Quarterly numbers have been muddled amid sharp data revisions Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
The lower than expected Quarterly numbers have been muddled amid sharp data revisions Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
28/02/2023 7:55:49 PM
The 4QFY23 inflation may now be possibly 50bps higher than RBI`s revised estimate Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service Below is Perspective on CPI and IIP numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Services “Today’s inflation shocker led by food as well as consistently higher core inflation momentum has depicted we are far from the ‘durable disinflation’ process. This upside inflation surprise comes after RBI revised down its 4QFY23 cpi Forecast by 20bps in the last MPC policy. This shows how uncertain the inflation trajectory can get, ...
The 4QFY23 inflation may now be possibly 50bps higher than RBI`s revised estimate Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
The 4QFY23 inflation may now be possibly 50bps higher than RBI`s revised estimate Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
14/02/2023 3:47:24 PM
Retail inflation at 6.5% in January, worrisome, shocker: Economists In a shocker, consumer price index (CPI) inflation touched 6.5 per cent in January, the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said on Monday, after being 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November last year, and economists termed it "worrisome". "CPI inflation moved to 6.5 per cent in January is higher than our expectations and is worrisome. Sequentially, inflation has snapped a two-month contractionary streak as food inflation and core inflation...
Retail inflation at 6.5% in January, worrisome, shocker: Economists
Retail inflation at 6.5% in January, worrisome, shocker: Economists
Source: IANS
14/02/2023 11:24:40 AM
MPC first cut: Balanced, non-committal and data-dependent Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service Below is Perspective on RBI Monetary Policy Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Service “The budget has ensured, the fiscal impulse is maximized to improve potential growth, while signalling adherence to medium-term fiscal sustainability. This requires continued financial sector reforms, better resource allocation. Expenditure focus has been on rural, welfare, infrastructure, PLIs, and energy transition. Capex spend has picked up significantly to 3.3% of G...
MPC first cut: Balanced, non-committal and data-dependent Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
MPC first cut: Balanced, non-committal and data-dependent Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Service
Source: PR Agency
8/02/2023 3:36:18 PM
Perspective on Union Budget : `The budget has ensured, the fiscal impulse is maximized to improve potential growth Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Service Below is Perspective on Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Service “The budget has ensured, the fiscal impulse is maximized to improve potential growth, while signalling adherence to medium-term fiscal sustainability. This requires continued financial sector reforms, better resource allocation. Expenditure focus has been on rural, welfare, infrastructure, PLIs, and energy transition. Capex spend has picked up significantly to 3.3% of GDP and is almost dou...
Perspective on Union Budget : `The budget has ensured, the fiscal impulse is maximized to improve potential growth Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Service
Perspective on Union Budget : `The budget has ensured, the fiscal impulse is maximized to improve potential growth Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist - Emkay Global Financial Service
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
1/02/2023 4:18:24 PM
The Ecosurvey depicts a positive picture about the economy ahead Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Perspective on Economic Survey by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The Ecosurvey depicts a positive picture about the economy ahead, hoping that the growth trajectory will be supported by multiple structural reforms taken over the years, and better economic health of corporates and banks balancesheets, helped by healthy public sector capex. The hope is that all of it should help in starting a new private sector capital formation cycle – signs ...
The Ecosurvey depicts a positive picture about the economy ahead Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
The Ecosurvey depicts a positive picture about the economy ahead Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
1/02/2023 10:42:34 AM
India's 2023/24 budget likely to be cautious, cutting deficit The Indian government will present a budget on Feb. 1 that will likely put deficit reduction ahead of vote-winning spending, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks towards seeking a rare third term of office in 2024. Officials and economists said the large size of recent deficits and a need to gain investor confidence was forcing fiscal caution on the government, overriding the contrary priority of spending to support a weakening economy. In pulling back the deficit, Finance Ministe...
India's 2023/24 budget likely to be cautious, cutting deficit
India's 2023/24 budget likely to be cautious, cutting deficit
Source: Reuters
25/01/2023 12:06:28 PM
View on GDP data: This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Perspective on GDP data By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist Emkay Global Financial Services “As per the NSO’s advance estimates, FY23GDP is likely to grow at 7% as against 8.7% in FY22. That is largely in line ,albeit slightly lower than a 6.8% GDP expectations of RBI. This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% from the highs of 9.7% in H1FY23, partly also helped by base effect. The advance estimates will have a short shelf life -- mostly based on ex...
View on GDP data: This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
View on GDP data: This implies estimated H2FY23 GDP growth would slow down to 4.5% Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
6/01/2023 7:10:17 PM
India`s current account gap widens to 9-year high India's current account deficit widened in the July-September quarter as high commodity prices and a weak rupee increased the country's trade gap, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Thursday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit (CAD) was $36.40 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2022/23, its highest in more than a decade. As a percentage of GDP, it was 4.4%, its highest since the June quarter of 2013. The CAD was $18.2 billion, or 2.2% of GD...
India`s current account gap widens to 9-year high
India`s current account gap widens to 9-year high
Source: Reuters
30/12/2022 9:09:31 AM
BoJ Modifies YCC: Market impact and assessment Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is BoJ Modifies YCC: Market impact and assessment by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services ?  In today’s BoJ meeting, the policy makers unexpectedly adjusted the 10 yr Yield Curve Control (YCC) band from +/-25bp to +/-50bp. The move now implies an effective rate of +0.5%for all BoJ purchases for 10 yr JGBs. The move was largely expected to happen early next year.   Although the BoJ cited the need to improve m...
BoJ Modifies YCC: Market impact and assessment Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
BoJ Modifies YCC: Market impact and assessment Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
20/12/2022 3:56:16 PM
RBI`s action and experts` reactions The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) action to hike the repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25 per cent has got the following reactions from experts: Deepak Agrawal, Chief Investment Officer, Debt Fund, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company The RBI hikes repo rate by 35 bps in line with market expectation with a 5:1 vote. The stance was maintained at "withdrawal of accommodation" with a 4:2 vote. The MPC was of the view that further...
RBI`s action and experts` reactions
RBI`s action and experts` reactions
Source: IANS
7/12/2022 12:50:02 PM
The MPC expectedly delivered a 35bps hike with 5-1 vote Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services * “The MPC expectedly delivered a 35bps hike with 5-1 vote and kept stance unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation”. The tone was still cautious and data dependent, and with the governor emphasizing the need to calibrate the policy. The governor again highlighted the stickiness of core inflation the risk that sustained high inflation co...
The MPC expectedly delivered a 35bps hike with 5-1 vote Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
The MPC expectedly delivered a 35bps hike with 5-1 vote Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: PR Agency
7/12/2022 12:04:53 PM
India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous Transactions via central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would remain anonymous "to a certain degree", a top official at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Wednesday, adding that technology and legal provisions can be explored to ensure that anonymity. India started the pilot project for its digital currency, or e-rupee, from Nov 1, when it was opened for initial trial. Then only being used by banks for settlements with each other, the scope of the project was expanded to...
India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous
India cenbank says digital currency transactions to stay largely anonymous
Source: Reuters
7/12/2022 9:21:22 AM
We see downside risks increasing for our 7% growth forecast for FY23 Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on Q2 GDP Data for FY23 by Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “Q2 GDP growth expectedly slowed to 6.3% and GVA at 5.6%, led by growth in the services sector while manufacturing was a big drag. Going ahead, even as recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to become broad-based, protracted global drags, shrinking corporate profitability, demand-curbing monetary policies and diminishing global growth prospect...
We see downside risks increasing for our 7% growth forecast for FY23 Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
We see downside risks increasing for our 7% growth forecast for FY23 Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
1/12/2022 10:53:04 AM
Instant View: India`s second-quarter GDP growth slows to 6.3% on higher prices India posted an economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, far slower than the 13.5% growth reported in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy. Government capital spending increased more than 40% during the quarter as the federal government stepped up expenditure on infrastructure from roads to railways, according to official data on Wednesday. The growth rate was above the 6.2% forecast by economists i...
Instant View: India`s second-quarter GDP growth slows to 6.3% on higher prices
Instant View: India`s second-quarter GDP growth slows to 6.3% on higher prices
Source: Reuters
1/12/2022 9:27:08 AM
Views on FOMC: We believe that shelter inflation strength will lag and linger Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Below is Views on FOMC By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist Emkay Global Financial Services * High rates dominating US housing market     Home prices are declining, but housing affordability has worsened as the surge in mortgage prices puts homeownership increasingly out of reach. Fears of a housing bubble bursting and comparisons to the GFC are not warranted, however, and the current dynamics suggest that the US housing market has returned ...
Views on FOMC: We believe that shelter inflation strength will lag and linger Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
Views on FOMC: We believe that shelter inflation strength will lag and linger Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
28/11/2022 6:00:48 PM
Views on FOMC: Along with the 75bps hike yesterday to 3.75-4%, opened the door to possibly stepping down the size of the next hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Below is Views on FOMC By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist Emkay Global Financial Services FOMC: Did someone say Pivot? Anyone looking for a “superficial pivot” in language got what they wanted, with key caveats. Along with the 75bps hike yesterday to 3.75-4%, the post-meeting statement opened the door to possibly stepping down the size of the next hike, if the data cooperate – with Fed acknowledging that past hikes and their lags in transmission will be ...
Views on FOMC: Along with the 75bps hike yesterday to 3.75-4%, opened the door to possibly stepping down the size of the next hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
Views on FOMC: Along with the 75bps hike yesterday to 3.75-4%, opened the door to possibly stepping down the size of the next hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
4/11/2022 12:29:12 PM
Perspective on CPI numbers: High-frequency mandi prices indicate that prices of perishables could increase going forward as well Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist | Emkay Global Financial Services High-frequency mandi prices indicate that prices of perishables could increase going forward as well. However,  global commodities (ex-energy) on an average are easing, which, if sustained, should act as a moderating influence on headline inflation. But watch out for near-term offsetting factors which may come from food owing to unseasonal rains, sticky motor fuel ...
Perspective on CPI numbers: High-frequency mandi prices indicate that prices of perishables could increase going forward as well Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on CPI numbers: High-frequency mandi prices indicate that prices of perishables could increase going forward as well Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
13/10/2022 2:48:18 PM
RBI MPC: Browbeaten by the West Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The MPC delivered 50bps hike in line with expectations. Clearly, the fast-evolving world order and consistent repricing of Fed’s outsized hikes are strong-arming the EMs. This painful adjustment has not spared the RBI either, which realised the net cost of a supposed soft signalling via shallow hike could be higher than a larger hike of 50bps....
RBI MPC: Browbeaten by the West Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
RBI MPC: Browbeaten by the West Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
30/09/2022 2:04:29 PM
India spending forex reserves at quicker pace than during taper tantrum  India's central bank is using up its foreign exchange reserves at a quicker pace than during the taper-tantrum period in 2013 as it tries to prevent an overshoot in the rupee, but a larger pool of reserves may allow it to support the currency for some more time, economists said. The Reserve Bank of India has sold a net of $38.8 billion from its forex reserves between January and July this year, data released on Friday showed. A net of $19 billion was sold in July alone, the mo...
India spending forex reserves at quicker pace than during taper tantrum
India spending forex reserves at quicker pace than during taper tantrum
Source: Reuters
19/09/2022 12:16:02 PM
India's Q1 GDP logs 13.5% growth, experts say lower than expected India's economic growth rose to 13.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal (2022-23), a huge jump from 4.1 per cent growth recorded in the final quarter of 2021-22. However, experts said that the GDP growth number was lower than what the market had expected earlier. This is the first double digit growth in GDP figures in a year, as the last double digit growth was 20.1 per cent recorded in first quarter of 2021-22. "Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at c...
India's Q1 GDP logs 13.5% growth, experts say lower than expected
India's Q1 GDP logs 13.5% growth, experts say lower than expected
Source: IANS
1/09/2022 11:42:41 AM
The sharp uptick of around 26.7% in nominal GDP essentially reflects the higher deflator Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on Q1 GDP Data for FY23 by Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The GDP print for 1QFY23 was largely in line with our expectations, growing 13.5% (Emkay 13.8%; Consensus:15.5%), led by led by recovery in services sector. The strong YoY growth partly also is led by favourable base effect, as 1QFY22 growth was severely impacted by the Covid Delta wave. The GDP prints as a mixed bag , largely a story of service sector r...
The sharp uptick of around 26.7% in nominal GDP essentially reflects the higher deflator Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
The sharp uptick of around 26.7% in nominal GDP essentially reflects the higher deflator Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: PR Agency
1/09/2022 9:09:17 AM
Yet another front-loaded hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services ? The MPC raised repo rate by another 50bps to 5.40% with the supposed stance unchanged at “focus on withdrawal of accommodation”.  The tone was balanced and similar to June, aiming to tame inflation and external risks. The broad narrative on inflation and growth remains unchanged while liquidity vigilance would imply two-way fine-...
Yet another front-loaded hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Yet another front-loaded hike Says Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
5/08/2022 2:20:44 PM
CPI and IIP numbers : We are tracking July inflation at 6.7-6.8% Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Perspective on CPI and IIP numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The sequential easing in retail inflation in June reflects the full impact of excise cut in motor fuels. This was also helped by other fiscal measures namely cut in import duties on a few imported food products,  and a possible easing in domestic edible oil prices amid moderation in vegetable oil prices globally. Mandi prices are showing further correction which al...
CPI and IIP numbers : We are tracking July inflation at 6.7-6.8% Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
CPI and IIP numbers : We are tracking July inflation at 6.7-6.8% Says Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
13/07/2022 10:13:21 AM
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services The 50bps rate hike in policy repo rate is in line with our expectations of RBI remaining front-loaded on rate hikes, after un-anchoring markets’ policy expectation in Apr/May. The stance continues to be focussed on withdrawal of accommodation. The triple whammy of commodity-price shocks, supply-chain shocks and resilient growth, has shifted the r...
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on RBI MPC announcement by Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
8/06/2022 12:29:51 PM
Perspective on CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services “The inflation shocker in May attributes to broad-based segmented gains in food, energy and core. Expectedly, the uptrend has been driven by higher prices for motor fuels and cooking fuels, energy and some food products. Sime segments of the food basket also witnessed further increases, led by cooking oil and fruits. Outside of food and fuel, core inflation also...
Perspective on CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on CPI numbers By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
13/05/2022 11:43:49 AM
Perspective on PMI Data for April By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services Below is Perspective on PMI Data for April By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services India PMI: Manufacturing expands amidst inflationary pressures * India’s manufacturing PMI slightly improved in Apr (54.7 vs 54 earlier), continuing its 10 straight month of expansion amidst global inflationary pressures. That said, there has been a gradual yet consistent easing in momentum since the beginning of CY22, and high global commodity prices ...
Perspective on PMI Data for April By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Perspective on PMI Data for April By Ms. Madhavi Arora, Emkay Global Financial Services
Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
3/05/2022 9:53:32 AM