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Rating agency ICRA in its latest report titled ‘Business Activity Monitor - An Index of High Frequency Economic Indicators’ has stated that India’s real GDP growth is likely to have risen to 4.9% YoY in Q4 FY2023 from the provisional 4.4% in Q3 FY2023, with the softening of commodity price pressures.

Notwithstanding higher volumes for most indicators, it said India’s GDP growth is likely to moderate to 6.9% in FY2023 from 9.1% in FY2022 given the margin compression in some industrial sectors owing to higher commodity prices, even as services sector displayed a robust performance in FY2023.

The agency said that growth in Q4 FY2023 will be driven by higher volumes of few indicators in ICRA’s set largely related to services sector, including, domestic airlines’ passenger traffic, petrol consumption, rail freight and ports cargo traffic, as well as GST e-way bills in Q4 FY2023. These trends, along with an expected rise in rabi output as well as softer commodity prices will support the growth.