IGI Logo

Gold 

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 59316 as U.S. consumers appear to be a lot more optimistic than expect. The University of Michigan said the preliminary reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index jumped to 72.6 up from June's revised reading of 64.4. Indian dealers offered discounts on physical gold purchases for a third straight week as higher domestic prices depressed jewellery demand in most Asian centres and prompted selling to take advantage of elevated rates. Indian dealers offered a discount of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices, from last week's discount of $7. In top consumer China, premiums ranged between $10 and $14. In Hong Kong, gold was sold at $0.50-$2.50 premiums, while Singapore dealers charged $1.50-$3 premiums. In Japan, gold was sold at between par with global price levels and a $0.50 premium. Perth Mint's gold product sales in June rose marginally from the previous month, while those of silver hit their lowest levels in six months. Monthly sales of gold coins and minted bars touched 73,124 ounces last month, up from 72,889 in May, and rose 12% on a year-on-year basis. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.3% to settle at 9173 while prices are up 77 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59179 and below same could see a test of 59041 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59417, a move above could see prices testing 59517.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59041-59517.
* Gold steadied as U.S. consumers appear to be a lot more optimistic than expect
* Dollar hovers close to 15-month low
* Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields edged up from their two-week low on Thursday

Silver 
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 75968 amid concerns of low supply and stronger industrial demand. Efforts to curb carbon emissions magnified the effect of evolving solar panel technologies that need higher conduction needs to underpin sharp upgrades in forecasts of silver demand. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014, and driving an expected 4% increase in consumption this year. The figure compares to a slower 2% rise in output, flagging fresh deficit concerns and driving silver to outperform gold since the start of the month. In the meantime, regulatory changes in Mexico will make it harder for mining giants to be rewarded mineral concessions, threatening companies to reduce investments in new projects and jeopardizing output from the world’s top producer. The metal was also supported by soft inflation data in the US, paring hawkish expectations for the Fed. Perth Mint's sales of silver hit their lowest levels in six months. Sales of silver products stood at 1,326,011 ounces in June, down nearly 30% on a monthly basis, and slumped 13% on a yearly basis. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US increased for a second month to 72.6 in July of 2023. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.31% to settle at 19261 while prices are up 642 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 75357 and below same could see a test of 74746 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 76358, a move above could see prices testing 76748.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74746-76748.
* Silver gains amid concerns of low supply and stronger industrial demand.
* Prices was also supported by soft inflation data in the US, paring hawkish expectations for the Fed.
* The markets anticipate one 25 bps rate hike at the Fed's July 25-26 meeting for this year, per CME's Fedwatch tool.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 6199 on profit booking after prices rose underpinned by supply disruptions and a tightening global market. Libya’s second-largest oil field is in the process of shutting due to protests, while there’s also a production halt in Nigeria. The Libya disruption is halting an estimated 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) while the loss from the Nigerian outage is pegged at 225,000 bpd. Further price support came from reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicting that oil demand will pick up in the second half of the year, particularly in China, despite broader macroeconomic headwinds. OPEC maintained a positive outlook on world oil demand, raising its growth forecast for 2023 and predicting a slight slowdown in 2024, driven by strong fuel consumption in China and India. Cooler-than-expected US inflation numbers also raised hopes that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, boosting market sentiment. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, this month agreed to deepen oil cuts in place since November last year, providing further support to crude prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -32.39% to settle at 4088 while prices are down -47 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6143 and below same could see a test of 6086 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6289, a move above could see prices testing 6378.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6086-6378.
* Crude oil dropped on profit booking after prices rose underpinned by supply disruptions
* Libya’s second-largest oil field is in the process of shutting due to protests.
* The Libya disruption is halting an estimated 370,000 bpd while the loss from the Nigerian outage is pegged at 225,000 bpd.
 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.99% at 206.6 on some forecast for less hot weather and as the amount of gas flowing to the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remains low due to ongoing maintenance at some facilities. That price decline came despite a slightly smaller-than-expected storage build last week, another decline in daily output, and forecasts for the weather to remain mostly hot and cooling demand high through the end of July, especially in Texas. U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 102.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 102.40 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.13 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 88.53 bcfd in 2022 to 89.02 bcfd in 2023 before sliding to 87.81 bcfd in 2024. The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.04 bcfd in 2023 and 13.31 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.59 bcfd in 2022. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.65% to settle at 25627 while prices are down -4.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 203.1 and below same could see a test of 199.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.4, a move above could see prices testing 218.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 199.6-218.2.
* Natural gas fell on some forecast for less hot weather
* US natgas output, demand to hit record highs in 2023
* The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 102.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 102.40 bcfd in 2024

Copper 
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 740.05 supported by shortage concerns, and hopes of stronger demand. Copper output in top producer Chile sank 14% annually in May, among the latest signs that declines in global supply foreshadow an incoming shortfall amid the metal’s essential use in the world’s transition to sustainable energy sources. Combined copper stockpiles across the LME, SHFE, COMEX, and Chinese bonded warehouses reached 225,018 metric tons, marking a substantial 55% decrease since March. Meanwhile, evidence of slowing inflation in the US pared expectations of Fed hawkishness, lifting expectations of industrial activity worldwide and pressuring the currency used to price commodities. Elsewhere, weak trade data from China underscored the country’s struggle to recover economically, lifting expectations of public support measures. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.8 % from last Friday, the exchange said. China's copper imports fell 16.4% in June from a year earlier, customs data showed, weighed down by a combination of strong domestic production and weak demand in the world's top consumer of the metal. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totalled 449,649 metric tons in June, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.26% to settle at 4175 while prices are up 0.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 736.3 and below same could see a test of 732.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 742.8, a move above could see prices testing 745.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 732.6-745.6.
* Copper gains supported by shortage concerns, and hopes of stronger demand.
* Copper output in top producer Chile sank 14% annually in May
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.8% from last Friday

Zinc 
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 217.65 as China’s output reached 3.23 million mt in H1, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output stood at 552,500 mt in June, down 2.13% MoM and 13.1% YoY. In June, the reduction of domestic smelters was mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan and other places, and the overall impact was less than expected, mainly because the supply of zinc concentrate was relatively abundant and some smelters resumed or raised production. Some secondary zinc smelters intend to increase production in advance considering the summer power cut and high electricity prices. Except for some smelters in Hunan who will reduce production, other regions have entered a regular maintenance cycle, and the maintenance is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Gansu. In August, the routine maintenance of domestic smelters will increase, and the overall output is expected to further decrease. Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April, down from 65,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first four months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 137,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 156,000 metric tons in the same period of 2022. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.84% to settle at 2502 while prices are down -2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 216.3 and below same could see a test of 215 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.7, a move above could see prices testing 221.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 215-221.8.
* Zinc dropped as China’s output rose 8.59% a year-on-year.
* Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output stood at 552,500 mt in June, down 2.13% MoM and 13.1% YoY.
* In August, the routine maintenance of domestic smelters will increase, and the overall output is expected to further decrease.

Aluminium 
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 201.55 as ingot social stocks in China's eight major markets totaled 553,000 mt as of July 13, up 23,000 mt from July 10 and 28,000 mt from a week ago, but 144,000 mt less than a year ago. Even though inventory buildup appeared to be accelerating in mid-July, it was still at a five-year low when compared to the same period in previous years. Investors assess indications that authorities are implementing measures to support China's economic recovery, while also considering the possibility that the US Federal Reserve may be approaching the end of its rate-hiking cycle. An official from the People's Bank of China stated that the central bank still possesses ample policy leeway to address unforeseen challenges and changes confronting the world's second-largest economy. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of the second-quarter GDP data next week, with forecasts pointing to an acceleration in China's annual growth rate to 7.3%, mainly due to a low base effect. Aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to 531,725 metric tons after 2,350 tons of outflows, mainly from South Korea's Gwangyang, daily data showed. However, the discount on the LME cash aluminium contract against the three-month contract reached its widest since March 22, indicating plentiful near-term supply. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.36% to settle at 3266 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 200.4 and below same could see a test of 199.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203.1, a move above could see prices testing 204.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.2-204.6.
* Aluminium dropped as China's ingot social stocks totaled 553,000 mt, up 23,000 mt
* PBOC stated that the central bank still possesses ample policy leeway to address unforeseen challenges.
* Aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to 531,725 metric tons after 2,350 tons of outflows

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 878.1 due to reports of improved crop progress. Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 14.9 Rupees to end at 1027.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.45% to settle at 756 while prices are down -2.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 873.1 and below same could see a test of 868.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 883, a move above could see prices testing 887.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 868.1-887.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 14.9 Rupees to end at 1027.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil prices dropped due to reports of improved crop progress.
* Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.
* Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4.83% at 11842 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 10499.45 Rupees gained 155.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.75% to settle at while prices are up 546 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 11392 and below same could see a test of 10940 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 12134, a move above could see prices testing 12424.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 10940-12424.
* Turmeric gains driven by demand from the domestic and export market
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 10499.45 Rupees gained 155.9 Rupees.

Jeera 
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 57335 on profit booking after prices gained due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. India's imports are likely to rise in the upcoming months due to the expectation of continued high prices in the Indian market this season. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -72.3 Rupees to end at 58854.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.77% to settle at while prices are down -520 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 56765 and below same could see a test of 56195 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58140, a move above could see prices testing 58945.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 56195-58945.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid less stock and good demand.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -72.3 Rupees to end at 58854.7 Rupees per 100 kg.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaime