Report on power sector equity raises to power up to meet capacity surge by SBI Capital Markets
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* FY24's energy supply exhibited a clear uptrend, growing strongly by ~8% y/y and in line with high trend seen in 3Y. We expect this trend to continue in future years, possibly necessitating greater than envisaged capacities
* Growth in energy supply will be driven by additional demand drivers such as EV, green H2, data centres etc., besides increasing prosperity and natural population growth
* Peak demand grew by >11% y/y in FY24 (highest growth seen since atleast FY07). An analysis of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y growth indicates an upward structural shift in the kurtosis of demand, largely due to weather extremities
* Apr’24 saw a surge in energy supply, partially helped by base impacts – Apr’23 had seen rains across parts of North India cooling temperatures
* Peak demand grew at a calmer canter, with strong rise being seen in Eastern region despite stronger base, due to heatwave
* Rainfall, predicted at 106% of LPA for the current season, could ease demand during Jun-Sep, due to cooler weather and dampened industrial activity
* As of now, water reservoir levels are lower than last year and 10-year averages with hydro rich states such as HP, UK, and Karnataka at lower-than-normal levels. Rains could help boost the production
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