Crude oil trading range for the day is 3754-3956 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 48624 as the U.S. Federal Reserve flagging concerns around the pace of the recovery in the world's largest economy lent further support to the greenback. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the risks are in the near term as the vaccine programme ramps up and new variants threaten to spread more quickly, and there is good evidence to support a stronger economy in the second half of this year. Global demand for gold fell to its lowest in 11 years in 2020 as the coronavirus upended the market, triggering huge stockpiling by investors but collapsing sales of jewellery and purchases by central banks. The pandemic also transformed the geography of the bullion trade, sucking gold from Asia, where most gold is sold as jewellery, to Europe and the United States, where investors are the dominant consumers. Global demand for gold fell to 3,759.6 tonnes last year, down 14% from 2019 and the first year below 4,000 tonnes since 2009, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its latest quarterly report. China's net gold imports amounted to just 40.9 metric tons in 2020, which is 85% lower than the 2019's total of 267.6 tons, according to the latest Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -33.47% to settled at 2493 while prices down -241 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48334 and below same could see a test of 48043 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49103, a move above could see prices testing 49581.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48043-49581.
* Gold slipped as the U.S. Federal Reserve flagging concerns around the pace of the recovery in the world's largest economy lent further support to the greenback.
* Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the risks are in the near term as the vaccine programme ramps up and new variants threaten to spread more quickly
* Gold demand plunged to 11 year low in 2020 as virus upended trade: WGC
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.59% at 67595 as U.S. economy slowed sharply in the final quarter of 2020 as a third wave of coronavirus infections caused states across the country to put tight restrictions on social gatherings and economic activity. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 4.0% in the three months through December, according to the Census Bureau’s first reading. At the same time, the Department of Labor reported a bigger-than-expected drop in the number of people filing initial claims for jobless benefits last week, although the number remained stubbornly high at 847,000. The improvement was not as large as seemed at first glance, however: the previous week’s figure was revised upward by 14,000 to 914,000. The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as widely expected, and pledged to keep buying Treasury and mortgage bonds to restrain longer-term borrowing rates and support the economy. The Fed reiterated that it would keep its low interest rate policies in place even well after the economy has sustained a recovery from the viral pandemic. Warning about the risks to the economic outlook, Fed officials removed a phrase from their previous statement that had said the risks were "over the medium term." Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.04% to settled at 12426 while prices up 1059 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65221 and below same could see a test of 62848 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70247, a move above could see prices testing 72900.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62848-72900.
* Silver prices rose as U.S. economy slowed sharply in the final quarter of 2020
* Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 4.0% in the three months through December
* The Department of Labor reported a bigger-than-expected drop in the number of people filing initial claims for jobless benefits last week
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 3827 on fresh worries about weakened fuel demand, after England clamped down on travel and China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, also sought to limit Lunar New Year trips to stem a surge in COVID-19 cases. The market had been supported earlier by a surprisingly large decline in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week to Jan. 22. Oil inventories dropped by 9.9 million barrels, the most since July, to their lowest since March, the Energy Information Administration reported. Gasoline stockpiles rose and distillate fuel inventories declined amid slightly lower refinery runs. But attention is now turning back to demand concerns amid a rise in COVID-19 infections with contagious new variants. England, in lockdown since Jan. 4, on Wednesday clamped down on travel, requiring people arriving from high-risk COVID-19 countries to quarantine for 10 days and barring outbound trips for all but exceptional reasons. Global oil demand is expected to rise by nearly 7% this year, boosted by quicker vaccine distribution and a better economic outlook. Total liquids demand is expected to average 96.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, 6.3 million bpd higher than last year when the Covid-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented oil demand shock. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.63% to settled at 2143 while prices down -66 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3791 and below same could see a test of 3754 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3892, a move above could see prices testing 3956.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3754-3956.
* Crude oil dropped on fresh worries about weakened fuel demand, after England clamped down on travel and China
* Global oil demand is expected to rise by nearly 7% this year, boosted by quicker vaccine distribution and a better economic outlook.
* The market had been supported earlier by a surprisingly large decline in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week to Jan. 22.
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.05% at 193.7 on a smaller-than-expected weekly storage draw and forecasts for slightly lower demand over the next two weeks. That decline came despite a colder weather outlook for mid-February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled just 128 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage in the week ended Jan. 22 when the weather was mild and heating demand low. That was below the 136-bcf decline expected and compares with a decrease of 170 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average withdrawal of 174 bcf. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.881 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which was still 9.3% above the five-year average of 2.637 tcf for this time of year. Even though the weather outlook was colder than previously forecast, temperatures next week were expected to be higher than this week. Data provider Refinitiv projected that milder weather would cause average gas demand, including exports, to slip from 129.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 126.4 bcfd next week. In the spot market, meanwhile, cold weather boosted next-day gas prices at the Dominion South hub in southwest Pennsylvania to their highest since April 2019 and gas and power prices in New York and New England to their highest since December. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.84% to settled at 7598 while prices down -6.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 189.6 and below same could see a test of 185.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198, a move above could see prices testing 202.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.5-202.3.
* Natural gas fell on a smaller-than-expected weekly storage draw and forecasts for slightly lower demand over the next two weeks.
* That decline came despite a colder weather outlook for mid-February.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled just 128 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 600.6 as support seen after the state-run Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) said that it had raised its projection for the price of copper for this year to $3.30 per pound amid progress in vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 as well as good prospects for the Chinese economy. Output in key producer countries such as Peru cratered over the second quarter of 2020 as lockdowns and quarantine measures caused many mines drastically to reduce operations. Recovery has been patchy. Peruvian mines had just about returned to normal run-rates by October, but output in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, started sliding in the third quarter after a robust first half of the year. Treatment and refining charges, which are what a smelter levies for processing copper concentrates into refined metal, are the best indicator of what is going on in the opaque raw materials market. The global refined copper market showed a 155,000-tonne deficit in September compared with a 72,000-tonne deficit in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first nine months of the year, the market was in a 387,000-tonne deficit compared with a 328,000-tonne deficit in the same period in 2019, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.35% to settled at 3958 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 590.9 and below same could see a test of 581 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 607.5, a move above could see prices testing 614.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 581-614.2.
* Copper prices gained after Chile’s Cochilco increases estimate of 2021 average copper price to $3.3 per pound
* Yangshan copper premium rose to $72 a tonne, its highest since August 2020
* Global mine output in the first 10 months of 2020 was still 0.5% lower than 2019 levels
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.2% at 205.2 as support seen after the International Monetary Fund revising higher its estimate for world GDP growth to 5.5% from 5.2% previously. LME zinc inventories leaped 55% in the previous two sessions to 294,500 tonnes, a level unseen since June 2017. Stockpiles in exchange warehouses jumped ahead of a traditionally weak demand season in top consumer China. Zinc inventories in LME warehouses surged to 235,025 tonnes, their highest since September 2018, while ShFE stockpiles of the metal rose to 43,240 tonnes, the highest since Dec. 11, 2020. Cash zinc on the LME has been trading at a discount to the three-month contract since June 2020, indicating abundant nearby supplies. The global zinc market surplus increased to 52,900 tonnes in October from a revised 38,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first 10 months of the year, the global surplus was 480,000 tonnes compared to a deficit of 216,000 tonnes in the same period last year. China's zinc smelters will raise production by almost 300,000 tonnes, or 5.7%, in 2021 after producing a record amount of metal last year despite the pandemic, while refined lead output will also. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.77% to settled at 2075 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 203 and below same could see a test of 200.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.1, a move above could see prices testing 209.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 200.8-209.
* Zinc gained as support seen after IMF revising higher its estimate for world GDP growth to 5.5% from 5.2% previously.
* ShFE stockpiles of the metal rose to 43,240 tonnes, the highest since Dec. 11, 2020.
* Japan's Dec zinc exports up 88.6 pct yr/yr
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 1297.7 hit by uncertainties about the outcome of a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package proposed by new President Joe Biden, which is expected to boost demand for metals. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year. US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief proposal faces hurdles as Republicans voiced concerns over the cost and lobbied for a smaller plan targeting vaccine distribution. Mounting coronavirus cases and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week has dulled appetite for risk, lending support to the dollar. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed meeting is coming to an end, and the market expects that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged. Dove expectations and the worry that the new round of stimulus bill in the US will be delayed will put some pressure on futures. According to customs data, in December 2020, China's nickel ore imports totalled 3.17 million mt (wmt and dmt mixed), a decrease of 11.2% month on month and 26.6% year on year. Nickel ore imports from the Philippines stood at 2.48 million mt (customs data denotes both dry and wet mt), a decrease of 16.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 60.72%. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.81% to settled at 1717 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1283.8 and below same could see a test of 1269.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1310.8, a move above could see prices testing 1323.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1269.8-1323.8.
* Nickel prices dropped hit by uncertainties about the outcome of a $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package proposed by new President Joe Biden.
* Data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January amid lingering concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic.
* The IMF raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 161.35 as LME cash aluminium traded at a $4-a-tonne discount from the three-month contract, flipping from three days in the premium zone, indicating that nearby supply tightness has eased. China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed, snapping three months of declines and extending 2020's position as a record year. The world's biggest aluminium producer, usually has little need for overseas supply but a rapid demand recovery after the coronavirus outbreak saw Shanghai prices surge above London, opening up an arbitrage for cheaper imports. The arb closed in the final quarter, but December arrivals of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products were still the highest since September at 265,569 tonnes, the General Administration of Customs data showed. Imports – which include both primary aluminium and unwrought alloy – surpassed the previous annual record, set in 2009, in just 11 months of 2020, with China turning net importer in July and August for the first time in over a decade. Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.28 million tonnes in December, the IAI added. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.79% to settled at 737 while prices down -1.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 160.5 and below same could see a test of 159.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 162.8, a move above could see prices testing 164.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 159.4-164.
* Aluminium dropped as LME cash aluminium traded at a $4-a-tonne discount from the three-month contract, indicating that nearby supply tightness has eased.
* China's aluminium imports in December rose 40.5% from the previous month, customs data showed
* Global primary aluminium output rose in December to 5.67 million tonnes, up 4.22% year on year, data from IAI showed.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 977.9 on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1096.6 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.82% to settled at 73 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 973.8 and below same could see a test of 969.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 982.3, a move above could see prices testing 986.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 969.8-986.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1096.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 4631 tracking rise on CBOT prices on worried about tightening U.S. and global soyoil supplies Rains disrupted harvest in Brazilian soybean-growing areas, slowing down field work in the world's largest soy producer and potentially delaying the planting of the country's second corn crop, pushing Chicago soybean oil up 1.2%. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4661 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.23% to settled at 144015 while prices up 57 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4578 and below same could see a test of 4525 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4665, a move above could see prices testing 4699.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4525-4699.
* Soyabean gained tracking rise on CBOT prices on worried about tightening U.S. and global soyoil supplies
* Rains disrupted harvest in Brazilian soybean-growing areas, slowing down field work in the world's largest soy producer
* Support also seen amid private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. cargoes to China and 163,290 tonnes to Mexico
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4661 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.51% at 1101.6 amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. Under World Trade Organization WTO rules, each country has been allowed to levy import-export duty on oil and oil. But there is no equality in this, as a result, the exporting countries of edible oils keep reducing the export duty according to their convenience and requirement, which causes damage to countries like India. India has been empowered to impose a maximum import duty of up to 45 percent on soybean oil and up to 300 percent on palm oil under WTO rules. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1076.2 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.83% to settled at 35755 while prices up 16.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1078 and below same could see a test of 1055 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1119, a move above could see prices testing 1137.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1055-1137.
* Ref soyoil prices gained amid supply concerns due to poor weather conditions in Latin America and strong demand from China.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in US, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 mln bushels
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1076.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.99% at 960.3 on short covering amid boosted by supply concerns. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for January 1 – 25 fell 36.1% compared to December 1 – 25 period, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said exports dropped 34.3% over the same period. Indonesia set the February reference price for crude palm oil (CPO) at $839.69 per tonne, lower compared to $951.86 per tonne in January, allowing for lower export taxes and levies next month, a Trade Ministry regulation showed. Based on the reference price, the export tax for CPO will be set at $18 per tonne and the levy at $150 per tonne, compared to $74 tax and $225 levy in January. Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year. "This is due to the expected expansion of mature oil palm areas as well as the effects of dry weather affecting the production of fresh palm fruit bunches, and subsequently crude palm oil production," Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in a statement. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 5.8 Rupees to end at 939.8 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.55% to settled at 7219 while prices up 9.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 941.2 and below same could see a test of 922.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 974.7, a move above could see prices testing 989.1.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 922.1-989.1.
* Crude palm oil prices ended with gains on short covering amid boosted by supply concerns.
* Indonesia sets lower crude palm oil exports tax, levies in Feb
* Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 5.8 Rupees to end at 939.8 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.99% at 5553 as support seen amid crop damage in north due to cold waves. In recent sessions prices seen under pressure in recent session as year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6109.4 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.83% to settled at 15170 while prices up 161 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5441 and below same could see a test of 5329 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5609, a move above could see prices testing 5665.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5329-5665.
* Mustard seed prices gained as support seen amid crop damage in north due to cold waves.
* The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares
* India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6109.4 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 6524 after production is expected to decline in Maharashtra due to inclement weather in areas such as Nanded, Hingoli and Basmat Nagar. As a result, prices have started climbing there. The price of kadhi turmeric has increased from Rs 5500/5600 per quintal to Rs 6600/6800 per quintal in these lines. There before in Nizamabad the light quality turmeric with moisture was selling at the rate of Rs 3500/4000 per quintal, now it has reached Rs 5000 per quintal. In the top producing states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Orissa, the arrival of new goods of turmeric was delayed by 15-20 days even though it did not have a large backlog stock. This has led to an upward revision in prices, whereas for a long time, it was a trend of softening or stability. During the month of December, due to heavy rains in the producing areas and flooding in the fields, turmeric crop was damaged and production is likely to decline. Limited stock of turmeric is being reported with producers and stockists. With the Telangana producer demanding a minimum support price of turmeric from the government to fund Rs 15,000 per quintal, has also gone on strike in January. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6238.65 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.52% to settled at 8630 while prices up 48 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6456 and below same could see a test of 6390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6564, a move above could see prices testing 6606.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6390-6606.
* Turmeric prices gained in recent sessions after production is expected to decline in Maharashtra due to inclement weather.
* In the top producing states the arrival of new goods of turmeric was delayed by 15-20 days
* With the Telangana producer demanding a MSP from the government Rs 15,000 per quintal, has also gone on strike in January.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6238.65 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 13580 on slight profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions after update there has been a reduction of 15 to 20% in cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan. How weather is expected for the cumin market for the next 2 to 3 weeks is important. If the weather deteriorates, then in February-March, a phase of boom can be seen. Demand for Ramadan will start in February. If the arrival of cumin at that time will not be in accordance with the perception, then the cumin may show a boom. In the international market of cumin, every buyer countries are currently waiting for the new cumin seeds. The international community is getting reports of sowing of new cumin seeds in India as much as last year and the climate is also favorable for cumin. Currently, Syrian cumin is priced at $ 2900 to 3000 per ton in the international market, Afghanistan cumin is being priced at $ 2300 to 2350 per ton. In this origin, there is no significant trade due to no large stock of cumin. The price per ton of Indian cumin is running from $ 1815 to 1850. The price of Indian cumin was reduced to $ 1750 at one stage, but after that the price was increased due to the uncertainty of export promotion scheme. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13150 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.03% to settled at 1440 while prices down -55 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13475 and below same could see a test of 13370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13660, a move above could see prices testing 13740.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13370-13740.
* Jeera dropped on slight profit booking after prices gained in recent sessions after update of crop reduction of 15 to 20%
* Consumption of cumin has increased in the current year and export demand is also large and cumin is unlikely to slow down from the current price
* Currently, Syrian cumin is priced at $ 2900 to 3000 per ton in the international market, Afghanistan cumin is being priced at $ 2300 to 2350 per ton.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13150 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 21090 as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up. Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers. The CCI has procured 85 lakh bales and may procure another 5-10 lakh bales. USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 20900 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.11% to settled at 6614 while prices down -90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20940 and below same could see a test of 20780 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21220, a move above could see prices testing 21340.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 20780-21340.
* Cotton dropped as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop.
* Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up.
* Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 20900 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 4488 on short covering as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4480 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.64% to settled at 32780 while prices up 5 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4456 and below same could see a test of 4425 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4509, a move above could see prices testing 4531.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4425-4531.
* Chana gained on short covering as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4480 Rupees per 100 kgs.
