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Gold

yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 55721 as the U.S. weekly jobs data hinted at a tight labour market that could keep the Federal Reserve on its rate-hiking cycle, underpinning the dollar and Treasury yields. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell again last week. The consumer price data next week could offer investors more clues on the path of rates heading into the Fed's March 21-22 meeting, where it is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. U.S. central bank officials are divided over whether more restrictive interest rates are needed or just maintain a tight monetary policy for a longer period of time to tame inflation that was much higher than the Fed's 2% target. Physical gold prices traded at a premium in India, as a drop in domestic rates encouraging buying, while top consumer China saw healthy demand and fresh imports in the region. Premiums in China held firm at around $25 to $30 an ounce over global benchmark spot prices versus $30 to $40 last week. In India, dealers were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices, versus last week's discount of $1.5. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.36% to settle at 10371 while prices are down -18 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55567 and below same could see a test of 55414 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55886, a move above could see prices testing 56052.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 55414-56052.
* Gold prices edged lower as the U.S. weekly jobs data hinted at a tight labour market that could keep the Federal Reserve on its rate-hiking cycle
* Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell again last week.
* Gold imports flowing into China over past few weeks

Silver

yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 64401 as the dollar index eased after comments from a Federal Reserve official raised hopes that the Fed with stick with a 25-bps rate hike at its next meeting in March. Treasury yields also declined after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he favored "slow and steady" path of interest rate hikes. Data from Spain, France and Germany indicated that inflation remained sticky, with the European Central Bank leaning towards remaining hawkish. The U.S. services sector grew at a steady clip in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs, suggesting the economy continued to expand in the first quarter. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its non-manufacturing PMI dipped to 55.1 from a reading of 55.2 in January. Restrictive rates also subdue demand for silver as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which is reflected in the negative momentum of solar panel equities. Still, tight supplies prevent silver's further downturn, with inventories at the LBMA and COMEX remaining at low levels. Additionally, new data revealed reserves by major producer, Peru, declined by 22,000 tonnes to 98,000 in 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.55% to settle at 14173 while prices are up 367 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63933 and below same could see a test of 63464 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64758, a move above could see prices testing 65114.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 63464-65114.
* Silver gained as dollar eased after comments from Fed official raised hopes that the Fed with stick with a 25-bps rate hike at its next meeting in March.
* Fed’s Bostic said he favored "slow and steady" path of interest rate hikes.
* The U.S. services sector grew at a steady clip in February, suggesting the economy continued to expand in the first quarter.

Crude oil

yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 6503 driven by renewed optimism around demand from top oil importer China. In China, activity in the services sector expanded at the fastest pace in six months in February and Manufacturing activity in China also grew. China's seaborne imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record high this month. The world's top oil importer is becoming increasingly ambitious with its 2023 growth target, aiming as high as 6%. On the central bank front, hawkish signals continue to emanate from the European Central Bank, with Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch saying its key interest rate could climb as high as 4% if underlying inflation remains high. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories rose by 1.166 million barrels last week, much higher than market forecasts for a 457,000 barrel increase. Russia announced its plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March, exceeding its announced output curbs of 500,000 barrels per day. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.41% to settle at 6277 while prices are up 66 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6316 and below same could see a test of 6130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6599, a move above could see prices testing 6696.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6130-6696.
* Crude oil prices recovered driven by renewed optimism around demand from top oil importer China.
* Oil prices in the week had been boosted by strong Chinese economic data, underpinning hopes for oil demand growth
* EIA report showed that US crude inventories rose by 1.166 million barrels last week

Nat.Gas

yesterday settled up by 7.65% at 244.8 due to a jump in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a bigger-than-expected weekly storage draw. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big US LNG export plants rose to 12.8 bcfd so far in February from 12.3 bcfd in January, compared with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd set in March 2022. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed US utilities pulled 81 bcf of gas from storage last week, more than market expectations of a 75 bcf drop. Still, it is much less than a decrease of 137 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year average decline of 134 bcf as mild weather kept heating demand low. Looking ahead, US gas demand is likely to ease next week on expectations that power generators would burn less gas to produce electricity, even though the colder weather is forecasted to last until March 17. U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will average $4.06 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2023, their lowest since 2021, before falling to $3.94 in 2024, according to analyst forecasts. In addition, extreme cold in early February and late December cut gas output by freezing oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.43% to settle at 23309 while prices are up 17.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 234.2 and below same could see a test of 223.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 250.8, a move above could see prices testing 256.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 223.6-256.8.
* Natural gas rose due to a jump in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a bigger-than-expected weekly storage draw.
* The amount of gas flowing to the seven big US LNG export plants rose to 12.8 bcfd so far in February from 12.3 bcfd in January
* EIA report showed US utilities pulled 81 bcf of gas from storage last week, more than market expectations of a 75 bcf drop.

Copper

yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 756.65 as investors assessed the impact of incoming monetary tightening against signs of stronger demand from China. Rise in price stalled amid slack Chinese demand and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further, dampening economic growth and boosting the dollar. Visible copper inventories are low by historical standards but stocks in Chinese bonded and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses have surged to 408,680 tonnes from around 100,000 tonnes in late December. That said, ShFE stocks fell by 11,475 tonnes in the week to Friday, the first weekly fall since December, suggesting demand may be picking up. Data showed Chinese factory activity increased in February at the fastest pace since 2012 and the services sector expanded rapidly. The world's refined copper market saw a three tonne surplus in December, compared with a deficit of 93,000 tonnes in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output and consumption in December were about 2.2 million tonnes. In 2022, the market was in a 376,000 tonne deficit compared with a 455,000 tonne deficit in the previous 12-month period, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.43% to settle at 4966 while prices are down -6.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 752.4 and below same could see a test of 748.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 764.6, a move above could see prices testing 772.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 748.1-772.5.
* Copper dropped as investors assessed the impact of incoming monetary tightening against signs of stronger demand from China.
* Visible copper inventories are low by historical standards but stocks in Chinese bonded and ShFE warehouses have surged to 408,680 tonnes
* ShFE stocks fell by 11,475 tonnes, the first weekly fall since December, suggesting demand may be picking up.

Zinc

yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 268.5 as traders were reassessing the potential for a supply rebound and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfalls. China is becoming increasingly ambitious with its 2023 economic growth target, aiming potentially as high as 6%, in a bid to boost investor and consumer confidence and build on a promising post-pandemic recovery. Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 184,100 mt as of March 3, up 2,800 mt from the previous week and up 700 mt from this Monday (February 27). In Shanghai, the market arrivals were basically unchanged, while the market transactions were brisk amid falling zinc prices earlier this week when some downstream buyers also picked up cargoes. The Caixin China General Composite PMI jumped to 54.2 in February 2023 from 51.1 a month earlier. It was the second successive month of expansion in private sector activity and the strongest growth since last June, buoyed by the removal of tough pandemic measures. The Caixin China General Services PMI climbed to 55.0 in February 2023 from 52.9 in the previous month. This was the second straight month of growth in services activity and the strongest pace since last August. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.99% to settle at 2700 while prices are down -0.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267.2 and below same could see a test of 265.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 271, a move above could see prices testing 273.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.8-273.4.
* Zinc dropped as traders were reassessing the potential for a supply rebound and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfalls.
* The zinc ingot social inventories in China totalled 184,100 mt as of March 3, up 2,800 mt from the previous week
* The Caixin China General Composite PMI jumped to 54.2 in February 2023 from 51.1 a month earlier.

Aluminium

Aluminium  yesterday settled down by -0.19% at 209.3 as fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China prompted investors to unwind some long positions. Yunnan will still face power shortages and great uncertainties in power supply in 2023. Aluminum smelters in Yunnan are unable to run at full capacity due to power rationing, and their actual power consumption in 2023 is likely to be much lower than expected. Aluminium smelters in Yunnan have completed their production reduction, while the resumption of aluminium production in Sichuan, Guizhou and other places is relatively slow, thus the pressure on the short-term supply side has eased. The pace of accumulation of aluminium ingots has slowed down during the week. On the demand side, the operating rates of aluminium processing enterprises has risen steadily amid consumption recovery, but the overall increase was limited. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China's eight major markets stood at 1.269 million mt as of March 2, up 21,000 mt from last Thursday and 149,000 mt higher than the same period last year. The Caixin China General Composite PMI jumped to 54.2 in February 2023 from 51.1 a month earlier. It was the second successive month of expansion in private sector activity and the strongest growth since last June, buoyed by the removal of tough pandemic measures. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.58% to settle at 3469 while prices are down -0.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.7 and below same could see a test of 207.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.6, a move above could see prices testing 211.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.9-211.7.
* Aluminum dropped as fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China prompted investors to unwind some long positions.
* Yunnan will still face power shortages and great uncertainties in power supply in 2023.
* The aluminium ingot social inventories stood at 1.269 million mt as of March 2, up 21,000 mt from last Thursday

Mentha

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 1037.9 dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 10.1 Rupees to end at 1196.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.4% to settle at 869 while prices are down -1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1034.2 and below same could see a test of 1030.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1043.2, a move above could see prices testing 1048.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1030.6-1048.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 10.1 Rupees to end at 1196.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.02% at 6970 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6924.4 Rupees dropped -65.4 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.34% to settle at 11835 while prices are down -72 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6872 and below same could see a test of 6776 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7068, a move above could see prices testing 7168.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6776-7168.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Pressure also seen as farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6924.4 Rupees dropped -65.4 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 30570 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -286.8 Rupees to end at 30475.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.98% to settle at 3531 while prices are up 295 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 29940 and below same could see a test of 29310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30950, a move above could see prices testing 31330.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29310-31330.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to       the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -286.8 Rupees to        end at 30475.6 Rupees per 100 kg.

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