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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 47008 as investors were caught between fears of a spike in the highly transmissible Delta strain of the coronavirus and expectations of an early rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. There are growing concerns about the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus which is bringing back a slight bid into the gold market from a safe haven perspective. Investors are looking to U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong slipped 58.8% in May from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 21.781 tonnes in May compared with 52.821 tonnes in April, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong fell to 26.684 tonnes from 55.699 tonnes. Gold imports, which have a bearing on the current account deficit, zoomed to USD 6.91 billion (Rs 51,438.82 crore) during April-May 2021 due to low base effect in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Commerce Ministry. Imports of the yellow metal had plunged to USD 79.14 million (Rs 599 crore) in the corresponding period last year, the data showed. Silver imports, however, dipped by 93.7 per cent to USD 27.56 million. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.41% to settled at 10854 while prices up 83 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46876 and below same could see a test of 46744 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47129, a move above could see prices testing 47250.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46744-47250.

* Gold steadied as investors were caught between fears of a spike in Delta strain of the coronavirus and expectations of an early rate hike by Fed.

* U.S. consumer spending paused in May, with the Federal Reserve's main inflation measure rising by the most in 29 years.

*  China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fall 58.8% in May

Silver          

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 69233 as investors were reacting to mixed signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on monetary policy tightening. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said the Fed might consider an interest-rate hike from near zero as soon as late 2022. Separately, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said high inflation readings will not last and Americans will return to the labor market in large numbers in the fall. On the COVID-19 front, Australia's largest city, Sydney, moved to a two-week lockdown due to concerns over the Delta variant virus cases. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that the government is on high alert following a flare-up of infections in the Tokyo region. Data showed a fall in U.S. jobless claims and a surge in durable goods orders, reflecting the continued economic recovery. After mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on interest rate hikes, investors now await report on personal income and spending, which includes personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation for new clues on rate hike timing. U.S. consumer spending paused in May as shortages weighed on motor vehicle purchases, but the supply constraints and increased demand for services helped to boost inflation, with the Federal Reserve's main inflation measure posting its biggest annual increase since 1992. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 38.93% to settled at 9946 while prices up 283 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68896 and below same could see a test of 68559 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69499, a move above could see prices testing 69765.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 68559-69765.

* Silver prices steady as investors were reacting to mixed signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on monetary policy tightening.

* Fed’s Rosengren said the Fed might consider an interest-rate hike from near zero as soon as late 2022.

* Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that the government is on high alert following a flare-up of infections in the Tokyo region.

Crude oil           

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.62% at 5414 on profit booking as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) prepares to meet on July 1 to discuss what to do with an output policy. As the oil market looks increasingly tight, the cartel to raise their collective output levels by another 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. OPEC’s forecasts point to an oil supply deficit in August and in the rest of 2021 as economies recover from the pandemic, suggesting the group and its allies have room to raise output at a meeting this week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is returning 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of world output, to the market from May through July as part of a plan to ease last year’s record output curbs. OPEC+ meets to discuss supply for later months. With oil at its highest since 2018, sources say a further boost in August will be discussed, but some producers are wary about new demand setbacks and higher Iranian supply. Meanwhile, the U.S. has carried out airstrikes against Iran-backed militia in Iraq and Syria, in response to drone attacks against U.S. personnel and facilities in Iraq. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -32.31% to settled at 5911 while prices down -89 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5371 and below same could see a test of 5329 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5486, a move above could see prices testing 5559.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5329-5559.

*  Crude oil prices dropped on profit booking as the OPEC+ prepares to meet on July 1 to discuss what to do with an output policy.

*  As the oil market looks increasingly tight, the cartel to raise their collective output levels by another 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August.

*  The U.S. has carried out airstrikes against Iran-backed militia in Iraq and Syria, in response to drone attacks against U.S. personnel and facilities in Iraq.

Nat.Gas           

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.6% at 268 as a heat wave boosted power prices in the Pacific Northwest to all-time highs and on expectations soaring global gas prices will increase U.S. exports to record levels. Traders noted gas futures rose despite forecasts for slightly milder weather and less air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. speculators boosted their long futures and options positions on the NYMEX to their highest since November 2018 and their short positions to their highest since June 2020, which increased open interest to the highest since March 2020. Speculators boosted their longs on expectations U.S. exports would return to record highs as global gas prices soar and with the amount of gas in U.S. storage for next winter almost 6% below normal for this time of year. The analysts said speculators boosted their shorts because some expect current high gas prices will cause producers to increase output and power generators to burn more coal and less gas, both of which ultimately will reduce prices. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.14% to settled at 19403 while prices up 6.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 262.6 and below same could see a test of 257.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.4, a move above could see prices testing 276.9.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 257.3-276.9.

* Natural gas climbed as a heat wave boosted power prices in the Pacific Northwest to all-time highs.

* Prices rose despite forecasts for slightly milder weather and less air conditioning demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* U.S. speculators boosted their long futures and options positions on the NYMEX to their highest since November 2018

Copper     

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 720.05 as slowing profit growth in industrial firms in top consumer China metals, rising inventories and low premiums sapped enthusiasm for the metal. Profit growth at China’s industrial firms slowed again in May as surging raw material prices squeezed margins and weighed on factory activity. China will make its monetary policy flexible, targeted and appropriate, while keeping interbank liquidity reasonable, the central bank said, as authorities seek to consolidate a post-COVID-19 economic recovery. China's economy has staged a strong rebound from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with Chinese exporters racing ahead to fill global demand bolstering the vast industry sector, but the recovery in the consumer end has been weak. High prices spurred the Chinese government to cool prices by releasing some of its metal stockpiles. On-warrant inventories of copper in LME-registered warehouses have jumped to their highest since May 2020, while Yangshan premiums of the metal going into China languished. The Yangshan copper premium inched up to $25.50 a tonne but was still hovering around its lowest since February 2016, indicating weak demand for imported metal into China. Investors were keenly watching progress on a $1.2 trillion U.S. infrastructure deal which could benefit metals demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.3% to settled at 4342 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 716.5 and below same could see a test of 712.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 723.7, a move above could see prices testing 727.3.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Copper trading range for the day is 712.9-727.3.

*  Copper edged lower as slowing profit growth in industrial firms in China metals, rising inventories and low premiums sapped enthusiasm for the metal.

* Profit growth at China’s industrial firms slowed again in May as surging raw material prices squeezed margins and weighed on factory activity.

*  On-warrant inventories of copper in LME-registered warehouses have jumped to their highest since May 2020

Zinc           

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 234.8 as social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 12,100 mt in the week ended June 25 to 116,500 mt. Stocks in Shanghai continued to decrease as downstream demand for restocking increased when prices fell, and the inflow of imported zinc slowed down. In south China's Guangdong, downstream orders in the low-price range increased, and deliveries were made one after another in the week, driving stocks to hit a new low. The US core PCE price index increased by 3.4% year on year in May, the highest since April 1992. Federal Reserve Powell reiterated the dovish stance that inflation will not lead to an advance rate hike. The economic bulletin issued by the European Central Bank predicts that the economic growth of the euro zone will continue to improve significantly in the second half of the year, and the medium-term economic recovery will also be supported by strong demand and continuous monetary and fiscal policies, which will drive LME zinc to strengthen. European Central Bank policymakers on Monday started a public debate about ending emergency bond purchases launched at the start of the coronavirus pandemic last year, with faultlines already emerging between so-called hawks and doves. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.13% to settled at 1546 while prices up 0.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 233.6 and below same could see a test of 232.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 235.8, a move above could see prices testing 236.7.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 232.3-236.7.

* Zinc prices gained as China’s zinc social inventories shrank 12,100 mt on week

* The US core PCE price index increased by 3.4% year on year in May, the highest since April 1992.

* Market focus shifts to the release of China’s official factory activity data Wednesday and key U.S. payroll data on Friday.

Nickel           

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.44% at 1361.8 as Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas increased 1,000 mt from a week ago and stood at 10,700 mt as of June 25. It was reported that more than 1,000 mt of nickel plates arrived in ports from LME warehouse last weekend, and some of the goods were moved into the bonded area. The domestic nickel plate premium was still at a high level this week, and the import window opened after SHFE nickel rose sharply on Wednesday. It is reported that the offer and inquiry of US dollar goods have obviously picked up, and it is expected that the supply of goods in the bonded area will continue to flow into China in the later period. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 137,000 wmt from June 18 to 5.1 million wmt as of June 25, showed data. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 77,000 wmt during the same period to 3.4 million wmt. LME nickel inventories are at their lowest since March 2020 while those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at record lows. Market focus shifts to the release of China’s official factory activity data Wednesday and key U.S. payroll data on Friday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.8% to settled at 2229 while prices down -19.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1351.9 and below same could see a test of 1342.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1375.5, a move above could see prices testing 1389.3.      

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1342.1-1389.3.

*  Nickel prices dropped as Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas increased 1,000 mt from a week ago

*  Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 137,000 wmt from June 18 to 5.1 million wmt as of June 25

*  LME nickel inventories are at their lowest since March 2020

Aluminium           

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 194.4 as investors monitored rising Covid-19 around the globe. Profit growth at China’s industrial firms slowed again in May as surging raw material prices squeezed margins and weighed on factory activity. High prices spurred the Chinese government to cool prices by releasing some of its metal stockpiles. Investors were keenly watching progress on a $1.2 trillion U.S. infrastructure deal which could benefit metals demand. Boston Fed President said that it is expected that employment and inflation may reach the Fed's target before the end of next year, and then it may consider raising interest rates once. European Central Bank President urges EU countries to maintain loose fiscal policy. The macro expectation of tightening liquidity is opposed to the reality of loose liquidity, which brings about market sentiment fluctuation. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose lower than expected in June. Personal expenditure for May stagnated due to rising prices. The profit growth of industrial enterprises for May in China slowed down, and the market was not optimistic about the subsequent liquidity expectations. Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas fell 16,000 mt on the week to 874,000 mt as of June 24. The stocks kept falling in Wuxi and Hainan. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.01% to settled at 2527 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 193.1 and below same could see a test of 191.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.4, a move above could see prices testing 196.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 191.8-196.4.

*  Aluminium prices dropped as investors monitored rising Covid-19 around the globe.

*  High prices spurred the Chinese government to cool prices by releasing some of its metal stockpiles.

*  Investors were keenly watching progress on a $1.2 trillion U.S. infrastructure deal which could benefit metals demand.

Mentha oil  

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -3.98% at 1078.3 as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11.8 Rupees to end at 1165.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.84% to settled at 560 while prices down -44.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1063.2 and below same could see a test of 1048.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1103.2, a move above could see prices testing 1128.1.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1048.1-1128.1.

*  In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.8 Rupees to end at 1165.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

* Last week, prices rallied due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.

Soyabean           

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.42% at 7079 as slow monsoon progress and lesser availability of certified soyabean seeds may impact kharif sowing of the oilseed in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, top two producers of the crop in the country. “There is lesser availability of certified seeds this year,” D N Pathak, executive director of leading trade body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), told. “The soyabean crop last year was damaged due to excessive rains, high temperature and pest attack, for which the quality of seeds with the farmers maybe not so good.” Though sowing has started in some parts of Madhya Pradesh it is yet to pick up in many places due to lesser rains, Pathak said. Sowing of soyabean generally gets completed by the first week of July. “We still have time. If it rains, then sowing will pick up faster,” he said. Rains have not picked up in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for sowing to gather momentum. Farmers typically store seeds with themselves for sowing, but the quality is not as good as certified seeds. Certified varieties are produced from foundation seeds derived from breeder seeds by agricultural scientists and are considered to be the best in quality and yield. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -18 Rupees to 7189 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.91% to settled at 32455 while prices up 99 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6942 and below same could see a test of 6804 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7156, a move above could see prices testing 7232.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6804-7232.

* Soyabean gains as sowing may get impacted amid slow monsoon progress and lack of certified seeds

* There is lesser availability of certified seeds this year - SOPA

* Rains have not picked up in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for sowing to gather momentum.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -18 Rupees to 7189 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil           

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.53% at 1234 on solid demand from China. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs, two government and one industry officials told. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1270 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.13% to settled at 36990 while prices up 30.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1207 and below same could see a test of 1180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1249, a move above could see prices testing 1264.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1180-1264.

* Ref soyoil prices remained supported on solid demand from China.

* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22

* A coalition of nine Argentine port worker unions went on a nationwide 24-hour strike to press for vaccinations against the coronavirus.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1270 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil           

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.52% at 1010.8 supported by stronger-than-expected biodiesel demand from the recovery in crude oil prices, economies reopening or higher mandate from producing countries. Malaysia has surpassed Indonesia to become the biggest crude palm oil (CPO) exporter to top consumer India in 2020/21, after Indonesia imposed heavy taxes on exports of the edible oil last year, industry officials told. Malaysia's palm oil exports to India surged 238% to 2.42 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2020/21 marketing year started on Nov. 1, according to data compiled by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA). During the period, Indonesia's palm oil shipments to India fell 32% to 2 million tonnes. It comes after Indonesia imposed higher levies on crude palm oil exports in December to raise funds for its ambitious palm-based biodiesel programme, aimed at maximising domestic use of the edible oil. Indonesia announced that it would reduce the ceiling rate for its crude palm oil levies from $255 to $175 per tonne, stoking concerns that it would take market share away from rival Malaysia. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jun. 1-20 rose 11.2 percent to 962,184 tonnes from 865,236 tonnes shipped during May. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -3.3 Rupees to end at 1051.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.72% to settled at 4560 while prices up 24.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 996.4 and below same could see a test of 981.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1019.2, a move above could see prices testing 1027.5.           

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 981.9-1027.5.

* Crude palm oil gains supported by stronger-than-expected biodiesel demand from the recovery in crude oil prices

* Indonesia's plan to revise its palm oil export levy.

* Malaysia offered palm oil at a discount to entice buyers

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -3.3 Rupees to end at 1051.7 Rupees.

Mustard Seed           

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 6911 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 7170.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.44% to settled at 42790 while prices down -34 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6859 and below same could see a test of 6806 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6957, a move above could see prices testing 7002. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6806-7002.

*  Mustard seed dropped as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.

* Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

* However upside seen limited pushed lower by flagging global overseas prices amid forecasts for beneficial rains across the Canadian Prairie.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -25.75 Rupees to end at 7170.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric           

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.19% at 7282 as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7440.9 Rupees dropped -58 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.54% to settled at 9980 while prices down -240 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7166 and below same could see a test of 7050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7462, a move above could see prices testing 7642.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7050-7642.

* Turmeric dropped as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.

* The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

* Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7440.9 Rupees dropped -58 Rupees.

Jeera           

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 13470 amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 105.25 Rupees to end at 13783.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.08% to settled at 6060 while prices down -90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13420 and below same could see a test of 13365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13550, a move above could see prices testing 13625.      

Trading Ideas:            

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 13365-13625.

*  Jeera dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.

* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.

*  As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 105.25 Rupees to end at 13783.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton           

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 24720 tracking rise in ICE cotton futures boosted by a weaker dollar and concerns over crop quality after heavy rains lashed major growing regions. Support also seen as the daily arrivals have stopped, as farmers and stockists have less stock. Meanwhile, mill owners and exporters are hoping to restore their supplies for the next two-three months, while the new crop is more than three months away. CAI has reduced the crop size by 4 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 356 lakh bales. CAI has increased the consumption estimate for the current crop year by 10 lakh bales to 325 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 315 lakh bales. Cotton exports for 2020-21 is projected to increase by 7 lakh bales to 72 lakh bales based on the input received from exporter-members, CAI. China’s 2020/21 imports are forecast at a 7-year high, driven by the highest projected consumption in 3 years, robust State Reserve (SR) imports, and attractive prices for imported cotton. For 2021/22, the June forecast shows higher trade and consumption with lower production and stocks. A lower consumption outlook for India is more than offset by higher expected demand in China, Bangladesh, and Turkey which is driving higher imports for these countries. In spot market, Cotton gained by 90 Rupees to end at 24680 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.01% to settled at 6820 while prices up 90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 24570 and below same could see a test of 24410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24840, a move above could see prices testing 24950.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 24410-24950.

* Cotton gains tracking rise in ICE cotton futures boosted by a weaker dollar and concerns over crop quality after heavy rains lashed major growing regions.

* Support also seen as the daily arrivals have stopped, as farmers and stockists have less stock.

* Meanwhile, mill owners and exporters are hoping to restore their supplies for the next two-three months

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 90 Rupees to end at 24680 Rupees.

Chana           

Chana yesterday settled down by -2.89% at 5004 after update that NAFED, Bhopal is commencing the sale in state of Madhya Pradesh w.e.f from 01.07.2021. Pressure also seen ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area Compare with last year. However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -101.45 Rupees to end at 4984.55 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.88% to settled at 109680 while prices down -149 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4952 and below same could see a test of 4900 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5103, a move above could see prices testing 5202. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4900-5202.

* Chana dropped after update that NAFED, Bhopal is commencing the sale in state of Madhya Pradesh w.e.f from 01.07.2021.  

*  Pressure also seen ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year.

* However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -101.45 Rupees to end at 4984.55 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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