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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 56168 as investors looked out for upcoming U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. Strong U.S. data released overnight and hawkish Fed remarks fueled inflation and rate-hike worries. A sharp retreat in domestic prices boosted retail demand for physical gold in India, prompting dealers to charge premiums for the first time in more than three months. Top consumer China also saw robust appetite for bullion, with some jewelers restocking following the New Year holidays. Dealers charged premiums of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from last week's $18 discounts. India's January gold imports plunged 76% from a year earlier to a 32-month low on subdued demand after domestic prices rallied to record highs and as jewellers postponed purchases, hoping for a reduction in import duty. The country imported 11 tonnes of gold in January, compared with 45 tonnes a year earlier. According to data from the World Gold Council, China's gold imports increased by 64% year-on-year last year, the highest level since 2018. A total of 1,343 mt of gold were imported throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 64%, the highest level since 2018. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.92% to settle at 12074 while prices are down -45 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56010 and below same could see a test of 55853 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56317, a move above could see prices testing 56467.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55853-56467.
* Gold prices settled flat as investors looked out for upcoming U.S. economic data for clues on Fed’s rate hike path.
* A sharp retreat in domestic prices boosted retail demand for physical gold in India.
* BCA Research said intensifying geopolitical conflict could provide critical support for gold and push prices exceed $2,000/ounce.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 66052 amid projections of weak supply limited, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. Economic data last week showed signs of a resilient U.S. economy and a tight labour market, sparking speculation the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer. Investor attention will be on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting minutes and U.S. GDP data. Several Fed officials last week signalled that more rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to the central bank's 2% target. Markets expect the Fed funds rate to peak just under 5.3% by July, with analysts seeing the dollar having run its course for now. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she saw a “compelling economic case” for another 50 basis point rate hike. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also stated he would not rule out backing a half-percentage point increase at the Fed’s March meeting. Investors now look ahead to the latest FOMC meeting minutes and more Fed commentary this week, as well as the Fed-preferred inflation gauge PCE price index. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.98% to settle at 13288 while prices are up 303 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65562 and below same could see a test of 65071 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66372, a move above could see prices testing 66691.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65071-66691.
* Silver gains amid projections of weak supply limited, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged
* Several Fed officials signalled that more rate hikes were needed to bring inflation down to the central bank's 2% target.
* Investor attention will be on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting minutes and U.S. GDP data.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 6385 as concern about a demand-denting global economic slowdown outweighed supply curbs. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products over the invasion of Ukraine. Russia is part of the OPEC+ producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, which agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million bpd until the end of 2023. Russia's oil output so far in February has been in line with production in previous months, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. "On the whole, the oil and gas complex is functioning normally now, oil production is at the level of previous months," Novak said. China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC) released a research report saying that the growth rate forecast for China's oil demand in 2023 in the annual outlook is raised. It is expected that the apparent consumption in 2023 may reach 13.74 million bbl/day, up 6.2% year-on-year, which is about 800,000 bbl/day more than the demand in 2022. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.64% to settle at 6326 while prices are down -41 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6318 and below same could see a test of 6250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6450, a move above could see prices testing 6514.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6250-6514.
* Crude oil dropped as concern about a demand-denting global economic slowdown outweighed supply curbs.
* Russia's Feb oil output at same level as previous months – Novak
* CICC raises Chinese oil demand growth forecast to 13.74 million bbl/day


Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.93% at 174.5 as forecasts pointed to near-normal temperatures through March 3, except for some cold days. US LNG exporter Freeport resumed shipments and flows from Norway are rebounding after recent outages, which should help to refill storage ahead of next winter. The latest EIA data showed US stockpiles were at 2.266 bcf as of February 10, 328 bcf higher than last year and 183 bcf above the five-year average. Meanwhile, the amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants rose to a 10-month high due to a rapid increase in flows to Freeport LNG's export plant as the facility prepared to exit an 8-month outage caused by a fire in June 2022. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through March 4 except for some cold days around Feb. 24-25 and Feb. 28-March 2. That forecast has more warmer than normal days than the previous outlook on Thursday. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 117.2 bcfd this week to 118.6 bcfd next week and 125.0 bcfd in two weeks. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -33.41% to settle at 16492 while prices are down -11 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 169 and below same could see a test of 163.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184, a move above could see prices testing 193.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 163.5-193.5.
* Natural gas dropped as forecasts pointed to near-normal temperatures through March 3, except for some cold days.
* US LNG exporter Freeport resumed shipments and flows from Norway are rebounding after recent outages, which should help to refill storage
* The latest EIA data showed US stockpiles were at 2.266 bcf as of February 10, 328 bcf higher than last year



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 786.05 on optimism around China's reopening and demand recovery. Hopes for a demand recovery in top consumer China post COVID-19 have supported prices, but some market participants now expect the rebound to kick in by March, disappointing those who had hoped for an early rebound in February. Data showed that China’s copper cathode output stood at 853,300 mt in January, down 1.9% from the previous month but up 4.3% from the same period in 2022. The actual output was 41,700 mt lower than the expected 895,000 mt. The reasons for MoM output drop are as follows: 1. The impact of maintenance carried out by a smelter in east China was greater than expected. 2. The production expansion of new smelters in central and south China was slower than expected. 3. The operating rates declined compared with December 2022 due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. In addition, the special statistical cycle underestimated the actual output of several smelters. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 38.8% to settle at 3831 while prices are up 4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 780.8 and below same could see a test of 775.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 788.9, a move above could see prices testing 791.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 775.6-791.8.
* Copper gains on optimism around China's reopening and demand recovery.
* Some market participants now expect the rebound to kick in by March, disappointing those who had hoped for an early rebound in February.
* Data showed that China’s copper cathode output stood at 853,300 mt in January, down 1.9% from the previous month


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 275.7 as concerns over tepid consumption in top consumer China dented risk sentiment, even as traders and investors hope for a rebound in demand. Traders were also reassessing the potential for a supply rebound and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfalls. The idled zinc smelter capacity is expected to restart, with Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling. Previously, high European power prices have caused the idling of three zinc smelters with a combined capacity of around 465,000 tonnes and led to many others operating at reduced rates. Chinese smelters are also powering up capacity thanks to abundant supplies of raw materials and the resulting healthy processing fees. More Chinese zinc downstream factories have relaunched production with some restocking after the country's 2023 Lunar New Year holiday from January 21-27. The latest data showed LME zinc inventory was flat at 29,850 mt after hitting a multi-year low of 16,225 mt. Zinc's early-year rally has quickly fizzled out as the market prices in a looming supply surge. With Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling, there are growing expectations that idled zinc smelter capacity will restart. The abrupt price turnaround this month is the market reassessing the potential for a significant supply recovery and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfall. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 17.45% to settle at 2409 while prices are down -0.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 274.6 and below same could see a test of 273.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 277.4, a move above could see prices testing 279.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 273.5-279.1.
* Zinc dropped as concerns over tepid consumption in China dented risk sentiment
* Traders were also reassessing the potential for a supply rebound and a return to zinc surplus after two years of shortfalls.
* The idled zinc smelter capacity is expected to restart, with Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling.



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 214.9 pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses. China's Yunnan province has asked aluminium producers to further cut their electricity usage amid a power supply crunch, potentially cutting annual aluminium output capacity by about 740,000 tonnes. The heating season has not ended, alumina production in north China, such as Shandong and Hebei are still constrained. High costs dampened the production passion of alumina refineries in Shanxi and Henan. Hence, supply in the north was relatively tight, supporting local prices. Roughly 800,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan will be cut within 10 days to combat power shortages, commencing this week. This will threaten 1.6 million mt of alumina demand and weigh on alumina prices in south-west China. Domestic aluminium output in January (31 calendar days) declined 0.6% month-on-month but increased 6.7% year-on-year to 3.42 million mt, with the daily output declining 642 mt to 110,300 mt. In light of power shortage in Guizhou province from December 2022 to January 2023, the operating aluminium capacity in January 2023 was 760,000 mt lower than that at the end of November, and 310,000 mt lower than that at the end of December after three round of power curtailment. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 47.29% to settle at 2523 while prices are down -0.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 214.3 and below same could see a test of 213.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.1, a move above could see prices testing 217.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 213.6-217.2.
* Aluminum dropped pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses.
* China's Yunnan province has asked aluminium producers to further cut their electricity usage.
* Roughly 800,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan will be cut within 10 days to combat power shortages


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 1027.8 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15.5 Rupees to end at 1184 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.98% to settle at 820 while prices are up 3.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1023 and below same could see a test of 1018.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1033.9, a move above could see prices testing 1039.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1018.1-1039.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15.5 Rupees to end at 1184 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 7096 on low level buying after prices seen pressure as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7128.8 Rupees gained 138.95 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.1% to settle at 12515 while prices are up 40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7012 and below same could see a test of 6928 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7190, a move above could see prices testing 7284.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6928-7284.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices seen pressure as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Pressure also seen as farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7128.8 Rupees gained 138.95 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 30270 on low level buying after prices seen pressure as harvesting have started in the Cumin growing regions and it is in process which may get complete by the end of this month. As a result, new crop arrivals likely to enter in bulk quantities from last week of Feb or first week of March in the spot market. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Early sown crop has harvested and its arrivals in the Unjha benchmark are reported at 150-250 bags (15%-20% moisture content) on an average daily basis. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 129.15 Rupees to end at 30022.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.35% to settle at 4266 while prices are up 470 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 29745 and below same could see a test of 29225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30690, a move above could see prices testing 31115.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29225-31115.
* Jeera gained on low level buying after prices seen pressure as new crop arrivals have started from some major producing centers
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 129.15 Rupees to end at 30022.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

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