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Gold

yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 45956 on a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while investors also waited for policy cues from a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he expects inflation to rise to 2.4% by 2024 but interest rates to be only on a “gentle incline” upward. The Federal Reserve should let its roughly $8 trillion balance sheet shrink next year as soon as it winds down a bond purchase program, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said, cautioning high inflation may require more aggressive steps by the central bank including two interest rate hikes in 2022. In an interview Bullard said he now expects inflation to remain at 2.8% through next year, well above the central bank's 2% target and the highest among new economic projections issued by Fed officials last week. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 1.1% in August from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 21.804 tonnes in August compared with 22.056 tonnes in July, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong fell to 24.549 tonnes from 26.406 tonnes. China is the world's top gold consumer Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.79% to settled at 13618 while prices down -203 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45751 and below same could see a test of 45546 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46140, a move above could see prices testing 46324.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 45546-46324.
* Gold extended losses on a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, while investors also waited for policy cues from a speech by Fed chair Powell.
* U.S. 10-year Treasury hits over three-month peak
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong down 1.1% in August

Silver

yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 60464 as the dollar rose as investors bring forward expectations for Fed policy tightening. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained for a fourth consecutive day to hit a more than three-month peak. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that labor-market conditions may "soon" warrant a reduction in the pace of the central bank's bond purchases. New York Fed President John Williams also noted that moderating bond-buying may soon be warranted. In remarks prepared for delivery to the Senate Banking Committee, Power said that inflation in the U.S. is elevated and could persist in the coming months before dropping back towards the Fed's long-run 2 percent goal. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told senators that the United States should return to full employment next year despite headwinds from the coronavirus Delta variant and again urged Congress to quickly lift the federal debt limit. In prepared remarks to a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Yellen said the recovery from a COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession remains “fragile but rapid.” “While our economy continues to expand and recapture a substantial share of the jobs lost during 2020, significant challenges from the Delta variant continue to suppress the speed of the recovery and present substantial barriers to a vibrant economy,” Yellen said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.2% to settled at 11659 while prices down -170 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 59783 and below same could see a test of 59102 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60865, a move above could see prices testing 61266.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 59102-61266.
* Silver dropped as the dollar rose as investors bring forward expectations for Fed policy tightening.
* Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained for a fourth consecutive day to hit a more than three-month peak.
* Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that labor-market conditions may "soon" warrant a reduction in the pace of the central bank's bond purchases.

Crude oil
yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 5587 boosted by a tighter supply and firm demand outlook, but power shortages in China which hit factory output tempered the rally. Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas, which swept through the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in August and September, damaged platforms, pipelines and processing hubs, shutting most offshore production for weeks. Also weighing on supply, top African oil exporters Nigeria and Angola will struggle to boost output to their quotas set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) until at least next year due to underinvestment and maintenance problems, sources at their respective oil firms warn. Oil demand will grow sharply in the next few years as economies recover from the pandemic, OPEC forecast, adding that the world needs to keep investing in production to avert a crunch despite an energy transition. Oil use will rise by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.6 million bpd, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its 2021 World Oil Outlook, adding to robust growth already predicted for 2021 and 2022 OPEC/M , and pushing demand back above the pre-pandemic 2019 rate. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.68% to settled at 7562 while prices up 8 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5521 and below same could see a test of 5455 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5664, a move above could see prices testing 5741.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5455-5741.
* Crude oil rose boosted by a tighter supply and firm demand outlook
* Oil demand will grow sharply in the next few years as economies recover from the pandemic, OPEC forecast
* OPEC also lowered its estimates for longer-term oil demand, citing changes to consumer behaviour brought about by the pandemic and competition from electric cars.

Nat.Gas

yesterday settled up by 3.06% at 430.5 on prospects of supply constraints ahead of the winter, despite warm autumn weather. US production change averaged 46bcf per week in the summer, below 52bcf last year, amid uncertainties related to the pandemic. At the same time, inventories in Europe are at historically low levels for this time of year. In China, imports are almost the double from last year's levels and in Brazil, imports are also near record levels as the country faces its worst drought in 91 years, hurting hydropower output. With gas prices at record highs of around $29 per mmBtu in Europe and Asia versus just around $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States could produce. The United States exports about 10% of the gas it produces as LNG. Despite reductions at several U.S. LNG export plants this month, the amount of gas flowing to the plants slipped modestly to an average of 10.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September from 10.5 bcfd in August, according to data provider Refinitiv. The premiums of futures for November 2021 over October 2021 and March 2022 over April 2022 both rose to record highs this week Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -28.45% to settled at 6329 while prices up 12.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 411.2 and below same could see a test of 391.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 458.8, a move above could see prices testing 487.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 391.9-487.1.
* Natural gas extended a rally on prospects of supply constraints ahead of the winter, despite warm autumn weather.
* US production change averaged 46bcf per week in the summer, below 52bcf last year, amid uncertainties related to the pandemic.
* At the same time, inventories in Europe are at historically low levels for this time of year.

Copper 

yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 717.55 on a stronger dollar and concern about the impact of power cuts in top metals consumer China, where the economy has already been weakening. Profit growth at China’s industrial firms slowed for a sixth month as plants fought off high commodity prices, COVID-19 outbreaks and part shortages. MG Ltd said it would stop operations at its copper mine at Las Bambas in Peru this week, as community protests in a nearby province has upended transport. The global world refined copper market showed a 90,000 tonnes deficit in June, compared with a 4,000 tonnes surplus in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 6 months of the year, the market was in a 2,000 tonnes deficit compared with a 67,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in June was 2.03 million tonnes , while consumption was 2.12 million tonnes. On the macro front, Fed Chair Powell expressed that the employment market was still ideal and the goods prices have been on the rise due to supply difficulties, sending out dovish signals. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.23% to settled at 3721 while prices down -2.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 714.3 and below same could see a test of 710.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 721.5, a move above could see prices testing 725.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 710.9-725.3.
* Copper prices slipped on a stronger dollar and concern about the impact of power cuts in China, where the economy has already been weakening.
* Profit growth at China’s industrial firms slowed for a sixth month as plants fought off high commodity prices, COVID-19 outbreaks and part shortages.
* MG Ltd said it would stop operations at its copper mine at Las Bambas in Peru

Zinc

yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 259.8 as the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 6,600 tonnes in July from a revised deficit of 40,000 tonnes in June, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 20,200 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 11,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 420,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. On the macro front, the energy crisis in Eurozone intensified, which is likely to extend to countries all over the world but with varying degrees. On the fundamentals, the fourth batch of national reserves to be released has been determined. However, it will be more difficult to estimate the influences on social inventory in light of power rationing. On the macro front, Fed Chair Powell expressed that the employment market was still ideal and the goods prices have been on the rise due to supply difficulties, sending out dovish signals. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.71% to settled at 1478 while prices down -0.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 258.3 and below same could see a test of 256.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 261.5, a move above could see prices testing 263.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 256.7-263.1.
* Zinc prices pared gains as global zinc market deficit declines to 6,600 T in July, ILZSG says
* The ILZSG data showed a surplus of 11,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 420,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020.
* The energy crisis in Eurozone intensified, which is likely to extend to countries all over the world but with varying degrees.

Nickel 
​​​​​
 yesterday settled down by -1.78% at 1425.9 on profit booking as widening power shortages in China raised expectations of output curbs on stainless steel mills. The nickel prices fell due to concerns over falling demand of nickel from the stainless steel sector which has been required to cut the output. At the same time, demand from the Chinese property sector, is seen falling due to the unsolved Evergrande debt crisis. Nickel inventories in ShFE warehouses fell to a record low of 4,455 tonnes in August while stockpiles in LME warehouses declined over 30% since mid-April. Meanwhile, demand from the new energy sector was also negatively influenced as the production of nickel sulphate and precursor has been affected by power rationing. On the macro front, Fed Chair Powell expressed that the employment market was still ideal and the goods prices have been on the rise due to supply difficulties, sending out dovish signals. The global nickel market deficit declined to 24,700 tonnes in July from a June shortfall of 32,400 tonnes, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first seven months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 158,900 tonnes compared with a surplus of 80,500 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.54% to settled at 1540 while prices down -25.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1417.8 and below same could see a test of 1409.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1437, a move above could see prices testing 1448.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1409.6-1448.
* Nickel dropped on profit booking as widening power shortages in China raised expectations of output curbs on stainless steel mills.
* At the same time, demand from the Chinese property sector, is seen falling due to the unsolved Evergrande debt crisis.
* Nickel inventories in ShFE warehouses fell to a record low of 4,455 tonnes in August while stockpiles in LME warehouses declined over 30% since mid-April

Aluminium

yesterday settled up by 1.6% at 234.45 as the People's Bank of China continued to inject a net CNY 100 billion of 14-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.35 percent on September 28th 2021, the same as in the previous day, the eighth day of injections. The PBoC has injected a net CNY 710 billion of short-term cash into the banking system in the eight-day. China's second largest private property developer Evergrande missed an USD 83.5 million payment in bond interest to its offshore bondholders on September 23rd. PBoC vowed to protect consumers exposed to the housing market on Monday, as the Shenzhen government began investigating the wealth management unit of ailing developer Evergrande, the clearest sign yet the authorities could move to contain contagion risks. The PBOC’s statement was issued after the third quarter meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee. The social inventory of aluminium trended up again due to suppressed downstream demand on the back of power rationing in Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shandong. The fourth batch of government reserves to be released has been officially announced. Global primary aluminium output dropped to 5.699 million tonnes in August from a downwardly revised 5.733 million tonnes in July, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed.
Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23.05% to settled at 2498 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 230.7 and below same could see a test of 226.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 236.9, a move above could see prices testing 239.2."

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 226.8-239.2.
* Aluminium prices rose the People's Bank of China continued to inject a net CNY 100 billion of 14-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.35 percent
* The social inventory of aluminium trended up again due to suppressed downstream demand on the back of power rationing
* The fourth batch of government reserves to be released has been officially announced.


Mentha oil

yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 935.2 as US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine to help fund their $3.5 trillion spending plan. The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary. They have also proposed new taxes on vaping products. Pressure also seen after the news that the Food and Drug Administration has proposed a ban on menthol cigarettes, suggesting it may prompt 923,000 U.S. smokers to quit, according to one study. Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers. This year US FDA announced it is taking steps to ban menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes, and ban all characterizing flavors — including menthol — in cigars within the next year. In Goldman Sachs' Nicotine Nuggets survey, nearly 70 percent of retailers said they expected cigarette volume declines to accelerate in 2021. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 14.9 Rupees to end at 1069 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.85% to settled at 1281 while prices down -5.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 931.7 and below same could see a test of 928.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 940.2, a move above could see prices testing 945.1.

Trading Ideas:

*Mentha oil trading range for the day is 928.1-945.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 14.9 Rupees to end at 1069 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine.
*The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary.
* Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers.

Soyabean

yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 5889 amid new crop arrivals and the commencement of soymeal imports. However downside seen limited as SOPA has pegged the acreage lower to the extent of 6.45 per cent at 115.5 lh against the Agriculture Ministry’s estimates of 123.60 lh. Latur Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC), reported arrivals of 15,000 quintals with average prices ranging between Rs 5,500 per quintal and Rs 6,100 per quintal. Soyabean crop has been totally damaged on about 8 lakh hectares (lh) due to excess rains and the crop condition is poor in about 12.83 per cent of the planted area, according to Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), the apex trade body. SOPA said crop condition is normal in 42.20 per cent of the sown area, good in 22.97 per cent and very good in 15.46 per cent. SOPA had carried out extensive survey recently across every major soyabean growing districts in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka among others interacting with farmers on the fields, traders, input suppliers, mandi officials and soya processors to assess the health of the oilseed crop. India's soybean production in MY 2021-22 is expected to be around 10.8 million mt, nearly 16.6% lower on the year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -156 Rupees to 6144 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.53% to settled at while prices down -70 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5851 and below same could see a test of 5812 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5954, a move above could see prices testing 6018.

Trading Ideas:

*Soyabean trading range for the day is 5812-6018.
* Soyabean dropped amid new crop arrivals and the commencement of soymeal imports.
*Latur Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC), reported arrivals of 15,000 quintals
* Soyabean damaged on 8 lakh ha; crop health poor in 13% of planted area, says SOPA
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -156 Rupees to 6144 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 1310.4 pared gains on profit booking after seen supported as oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. Imports in 2020/21 marketing year ending Oct. 31 could fall to 13.1 million tonnes, the lowest in six years, from last year's 13.2 million, B.V. Mehta, SEA executive director, said in a virtual conference. Palm oil imports, however, could rise 8% from a year ago to 7.8 million tonnes, he said, as India allowed imports of refined palm oil and cut the import tax on crude palm oil. India's export of oilmeal, used as animal feed, declined 4 percent to 1,64,831 tonne in August from the year-ago period, in view of domestic shortage of the key oilmeal products. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1333 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.59% to settled at while prices down -3.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1304 and below same could see a test of 1296 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1318, a move above could see prices testing 1324.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1296-1324.
* Ref soyoil pared gains profit booking after seen supported as oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt
* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA
* U.S. August soybean oil stock seen at 1.668 billion pounds: NOPA
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1333 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 1115.6 underpinned by signs of slowing production and a recovery in rival soyoil prices. Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Malaysia's production during Sept. 1-20 fell 4.5% from the same period in August. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-20 rose 36.7 percent to 1,070,096 tonnes from 783,027 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-20. Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-20 rose 38% to 1,089,071 tonnes from the same week in August, cargo surveyor Amspec Agri said. However, this was slower than a 54% monthly rise in Sept. 1-15. Malaysia maintained its October export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,472.46 ringgit ($1,068.18) per tonne for October, up from 4,255.52 ringgit in September. India has cut base import taxes on palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, a government order showed, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 2 Rupees to end at 1138.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.99% to settled at 4316 while prices up 3.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1108.9 and below same could see a test of 1102.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1121.2, a move above could see prices testing 1126.7.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1102.1-1126.7.
* Crude palm oil prices seen supported underpinned by signs of slowing production and a recovery in rival soyoil prices.
* Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Malaysia's production during Sept. 1-20 fell 4.5% from the same period in August.
* Malaysia’s September 1-20 palm oil exports shoots up
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 2 Rupees to end at 1138.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed 

yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 8413 on profit booking after prices gained due to deficient stocks and peak consumption season. Mustards stocks dwindle to 30Lakh tonnes with about 5-6 months remaining for new arrival season. Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought. Prices seen supported as Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23. Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -77.25 Rupees to end at 8741.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.05% to settled at while prices down -52 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8350 and below same could see a test of 8286 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8489, a move above could see prices testing 8564.

Trading Ideas:

*Rmseed trading range for the day is 8286-8564.
*Mustard seed prices seen supported due to deficient stocks and peak consumption season.
*Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought.
* Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -77.25 Rupees to end at 8741.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

yesterday settled up by 2.52% at 7402 on short covering following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7195 Rupees dropped -13.95 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.54% to settled at while prices up 182 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7282 and below same could see a test of 7160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7492, a move above could see prices testing 7580.

Trading Ideas:

*Turmeric trading range for the day is 7160-7580.
* Turmeric gained on short covering following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7195 Rupees dropped -13.95 Rupees.

Jeera

yesterday settled up by 1% at 14685 as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.75 Rupees to end at 14514.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.57% to settled at while prices up 145 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14530 and below same could see a test of 14375 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14815, a move above could see prices testing 14945.

Trading Ideas:

# Jeera trading range for the day is 14375-14945.
# Jeera gains as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin
# However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.
# India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.75 Rupees to end at 14514.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton 

yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 27450 as the pink bollworm attack on cotton crop in Punjab has been found to be much beyond earlier anticipated. Over one fourth area in biggest cotton growing districts of Bathinda and Mansa are disturbed on the count though earlier the attack was felt in around 10-15% area in these districts. Cotton procurement for 2021-22 kharif season should commence from the first week of November, Minister for Cooperation and Marketing Balasaheb Patil said. At a meeting, Patil took the stock of cotton cultivation in Maharashtra. He directed the department to start early cotton procurement from November first week to facilitate timely sale and income for farmers. The directives come in the wake of a delay in the last kharif season due to Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown, for which procurement centres did not open on time. “Cotton sowing in the current kharif season was done on 39.37 lack hectares. Last year, it was sown on 42.08 lakh hectares. The area under cotton sowing has declined by 6.44 per cent,” Patil said. Amid high demand and better prices being offered by private players, Punjab has witnessed a 50-fold increase in the arrival of cotton crop at mandis as compared to the figures till September 21 last year. In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 26840 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.07% to settled at 1986 while prices up 340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 27090 and below same could see a test of 26730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27690, a move above could see prices testing 27930.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 26730-27930.
* Cotton prices remained supported as the pink bollworm attack on cotton crop in Punjab has been found to be much beyond earlier anticipated.
* Kharif cotton procurement should begin in November: Maharashtra minister
* Amid high demand and better prices being offered by private players, Punjab has witnessed a 50-fold increase in the arrival of cotton crop
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 26840 Rupees.

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