IGI Logo

Summary: 67th edition of the COVID-19 files

* The 7-day moving avg. for daily cases stood lower at 32k vs. 36k last week; cases remain at a 5-month low

* Peaking in trajectory visible significantly in Kerala

* The 7-day MA in active cases declined to 0.35mn, with 72% cases in KER (49%), MH (17%) and Karnataka (6%) itself

* Daily recoveries-to-daily ratio has risen near 125%

* The all-India positivity rate 7DMA fell to 1.9% from 2.1% last week; and the number of districts with a positivity rate >10% fell WoW to 39

* Further, share of higher GSDP states in incremental infections fell to an all time low of 26%

* India approved Zydus Cadila's needle-free vaccine, ZyCoV-D, the world’s first ever DNA based vaccine which is also found to be eligible for use for children above the age of 12. Supply is expected from mid-end Sep’21

* However, daily vaccine doses administered 7DMA fell to 4.9mn vs. 5.7mn (after touching a new record high of 8.9mn on 17 Aug’21)

* According to our calculations, India could have achieved herd immunity by Sep-Oct if the daily vaccine doses administered inches rose to 6-7mn. However, two aspects challenge the importance of this- I) the herd immunity argument has been questioned in countries such as US, UK, Spain, France where despite vaccination exceeding 60% of their population, uptick in COVID-19 cases has been witnessed, and ii) our estimates suggest inadequate vaccine supply to clock 6-7mn doses per day in Aug and Sep (current daily average of 5.3mn in Aug). In fact, vaccine supply may be enough to vaccinate only 80% of adults by Dec-21 vs. govt. target of 100%. So far 33% of the Indian population has been vaccinated with the 1st dose

* Global cases rose further by 2.2% this week. We note the number of days to hit additional 10mn cases is lower at c.16 days vs. 18 days before that.

Economic indicators

* 2-year CAGR for economic indicators remained robust till 24-Aug’21: E-way bills, vehicle registrations, railway freight, power consumption. However, the 2- year CAGR remains slower than last month for property registrations in Maharashtra

* Google mobility trends for recreation and workplace improved to Mar’20/Feb’21 level

* Overall Jul’21 had witnessed an uptick in 2-year CAGR for most economic indicators- e-way bills, railway freight, power consumption

* Rural remains steady; improving rainfall to sustain momentum in agriculture.

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.jmfl.com/disclaimer

CIN Number : L67120MH1986PLC038784

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer