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The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook forecasts slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and increased exports, leading to lower ending stocks. The U.S. wheat exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million, with strong sales of white wheat to East Asia. Wheat imports are increased by 5 million bushels to 125 million, driven by a solid pace for Hard Red Spring wheat. Despite the increase in exports, projected ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million bushels. Globally, wheat supplies, consumption, and trade are expected to decline slightly, but ending stocks are projected to rise slightly to 257.9 million tons.

Key Highlights

* U.S. wheat supplies increase, exports rise by 25 million bushels.

* White wheat exports boosted by strong sales to East Asia.

* Wheat imports raised by 5 million bushels to 125 million.

* Ending stocks reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million.

* Global wheat trade declines with lower exports from the EU and Russia.

The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook anticipates larger supplies, with a significant increase in exports leading to a reduction in ending stocks. U.S. wheat exports are projected to rise by 25 million bushels to 850 million, supported by a robust pace of white wheat sales to East Asian markets, which are up 15 million bushels to 210 million. Hard Red Spring and Soft Red Winter wheat exports also see a 5 million bushel increase each. Wheat imports are raised by 5 million bushels to 125 million, driven primarily by Hard Red Spring wheat.

In terms of price performance, U.S. wheat prices are expected to remain stable, with the season-average farm price projected to stay at $5.60 per bushel. This stability is supported by the increase in exports and the reduction in ending stocks. On the global front, supplies and consumption are forecast to decline slightly, with a forecasted drop in production from major wheat-producing regions like the European Union and Brazil.

Global wheat trade is also expected to decrease by 1.0 million tons, with Russia’s exports declining due to an export quota. The total global wheat trade for 2024/25 is forecast at 213.7 million tons. However, ending stocks for global wheat are expected to rise slightly to 257.9 million tons, marking the lowest level since the 2015/16 season.

Finally

The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 reflects a positive export outlook, although global production challenges and export restrictions in Russia may impact the market.

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