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The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook indicates increased supplies and ending stocks with unchanged exports. Domestic seed use rose by 2 million bushels, while imports grew by 5 million bushels, mainly Hard Red Spring wheat. Global wheat supplies are slightly higher due to increased production in Syria and Pakistan, offsetting reductions in Uruguay. World consumption dipped by 0.6 million tons, and trade projections dropped by 1.7 million tons due to reduced exports from Russia and Ukraine. U.S. season-average farm prices were reduced to $5.55 per bushel due to expected lower futures prices. Global ending stocks rose by 0.9 million tons, supported by increases in Russia and Brazil, offsetting reductions in Turkey, China, and Indonesia.

Key Highlights

* U.S. wheat ending stocks rise to 798 million bushels.

* Global supplies increase to 1,060.7 million tons.

* Season-average U.S. wheat price drops to $5.55 per bushel.

* Russia’s wheat exports forecast down by 1 million tons.

* Global ending stocks rise to 258.8 million tons.

The 2024/25 U.S. wheat market witnessed a modest rise in supplies, with imports increasing by 5 million bushels to 130 million, primarily in Hard Red Spring wheat. Despite stable feed and residual use at 120 million bushels, seed use rose by 2 million bushels, reflecting updated planting trends. Exports remain at 850 million bushels. However, higher imports and reduced domestic consumption have pushed U.S. ending stocks up by 3 million bushels to 798 million, a 15% increase from last year. The average farm price has been adjusted down by $0.05 to $5.55 per bushel.

Globally, wheat supplies rose slightly to 1,060.7 million tons due to production gains in Syria and Pakistan. Consumption dipped by 0.6 million tons, driven by reductions in Turkey, partially offset by increased usage in Ukraine. Trade forecasts saw a reduction of 1.7 million tons, reflecting lower exports from Russia and Ukraine, with Russia’s exports at 46 million tons, down from its record 55.5 million last year.

Global ending stocks climbed to 258.8 million tons, attributed to higher reserves in Russia, Brazil, and Nigeria, offsetting declines in Turkey and China. These developments underscore evolving market dynamics, with lower prices and increased stocks shaping the outlook.

Finally

The wheat market shows higher stocks and lower prices, with U.S. and global dynamics reflecting changing supply-demand trends. Monitor export and consumption patterns closely.

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