U.S. Wheat Outlook: Higher Use Lowers Stocks, Prices Steady by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook projects increased domestic use, lowering ending stocks by 4 million bushels to 794 million, though still 14% higher than last year. Food use is revised up by 4 million bushels due to higher flour grind. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies rise to 1,061.3 million tons, driven by higher production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. Consumption increases, but world trade declines by 3 million tons, with China’s wheat imports dropping to a five-year low. Global ending stocks are lowered to 257.6 million tons due to reductions in China, partially offset by gains in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Highlights
# U.S. wheat ending stocks fall 4 million bushels to 794 million.
# Food use is raised by 4 million bushels due to increased flour grind.
# Global wheat supplies rise to 1,061.3 million tons on higher output.
# China’s wheat imports drop to 8.0 million tons, a five-year low.
# Global ending stocks fall 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million.
The U.S. wheat market is seeing increased domestic consumption, leading to a slight decline in ending stocks. Food use has been revised up by 4 million bushels to 970 million, as the NASS Flour Milling Products report indicated a 2% rise in wheat flour grind. Despite this increased demand, ending stocks remain 14% higher than last year at 794 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel, reflecting stable market conditions.
Supporting this price stability, global wheat supplies have slightly increased to 1,061.3 million tons, primarily due to higher production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, global trade has declined by 3 million tons, with major export reductions from the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports are expected to fall sharply to 8.0 million tons, the lowest in five years, down from 13.6 million tons last year. This drop reflects a sluggish import pace and declining Chinese demand, which could influence global price trends.
Other key developments include an increase in global wheat consumption to 803.7 million tons, driven by higher feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. However, projected 2024/25 ending stocks have been revised down by 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million due to reductions in China, partially offset by increased stocks in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. These changes suggest a tightening market, with price stability in the near term but potential upward pressure if global trade disruptions persist.
Finally
U.S. wheat stocks decline slightly, but global supplies rise. Stable U.S. prices contrast with tightening global trade. Any further disruptions could support price gains ahead.
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