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The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook indicates a drop in supplies due to lower harvested area and production, while domestic use sees a slight uptick. Globally, wheat production is expected to rise, driven by increased output in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia. However, global ending stocks are projected to decline to their lowest level since 2015/16.

Highlights

Lower U.S. Wheat Supplies: The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook shows reduced supplies due to lower production, with a decrease of 26 million bushels, despite a slight increase in average yield per acre.

Harvested Area Reduction: U.S. wheat harvested area is lowered by 0.9 million acres to 37.9 million, which is only partially offset by an increase in the yield, now at 52.2 bushels per acre.

Mixed Wheat Class Production: Production of Hard Red Spring, Durum, and Soft Red Winter wheat decreased, while Hard Red Winter and White wheat production increased, affecting overall supply dynamics.

Increased Domestic Use: Domestic use of U.S. wheat is slightly raised by 2 million bushels, driven primarily by higher food use as indicated in the NASS Flour Millings Products report.

Lower Ending Stocks: The projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are reduced by 28 million bushels to 828 million, reflecting tighter supply and steady demand.

Stable Farm Price: The season-average farm price for U.S. wheat remains unchanged at $5.70 per bushel, despite fluctuations in supply and demand projections.

Global Supply Increase: The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 anticipates increased supplies, mainly due to higher production in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia, offsetting reductions in the EU and the U.S.

Record Global Consumption: Global wheat consumption is forecasted to reach a record 804.0 million tons, driven by higher feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

Higher World Trade: World wheat trade is projected to increase by 2.0 million tons to 214.9 million, with Australia and Ukraine expected to be the primary contributors to the export growth.

Declining Global Stocks: Global ending stocks for wheat are expected to decrease slightly by 0.6 million tons to 256.6 million, marking the lowest level since the 2015/16 season.

Conclusion

The 2024/25 wheat market presents a mixed scenario, with the U.S. facing tighter supplies and reduced ending stocks, despite stable farm prices. Global production is set to increase, but the continued decline in global ending stocks could support prices in the long term. Monitoring production trends and demand shifts will be crucial for navigating the wheat market in the upcoming season.

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