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Below the Perspective on US Sept NFP: Strong beat, but dated data is unlikely to move the Fed by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services

US Sept NFP: Strong beat, but dated data is unlikely to move the Fed 

* September's (much-delayed) US jobs data came in far better than expected - net payrolls were at 119k (vs 51k consensus). The unemployment rate ticked up unexpectedly to 4.4% - but this was driven by a rise in the labor force participation rate. There was a small downward revision of 33k to the previous two months' data. 

* The mkt reaction has been mixed - S&P futures rose higher (buoyed by the fact that employment remains solid) while bond yields and the DXY have ticked down (focusing more on the unemployment rate and thus a case for easier Fed policy).

* For what it is worth, this print has barely moved mkt pricing for a Dec cut - probability is at 28% now (vs 30% a day ago).

* Despite this print having outsized importance due to the shutdown-led data drought, its dated nature meant that only a significantly low number would have moved the needle towards a Fed cut.

* Recent Fedspeak has leaned hawkish, and with no Oct payrolls data (and Nov being delayed to after the Fed meeting on 10th Dec), this print is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

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