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Gold

Gold settled sharply lower by 1.71% at Rs156,281 as traders increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike following Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on persistent inflationary pressure. Warsh emphasized that inflation has not meaningfully slowed, with the 2% target remaining a firm objective, while financial conditions are currently not restrictive. He also reiterated that interest rates remain the Fed’s predominant tool for controlling inflation, prompting money markets to price in more than a 50% probability of a September rate hike, weighing on gold. Physical demand also weakened, particularly in India, where gold discounts widened sharply to as much as $135 per ounce over official domestic prices, compared with $65 last week, marking the deepest discount in three months. Market participants remain concerned that the government could reverse the recent increase in gold and silver import duties to 15% from 6%, introduced in May, amid speculation that higher duties have encouraged smuggling and weakened legitimate demand. In China, bullion traded at discounts of $2-$5 per ounce to global spot prices, while Singapore prices ranged from a $1 discount to a $2.50 premium. Hong Kong and Japan also witnessed relatively narrow premiums and discounts, indicating subdued physical market activity across major Asian centres. Meanwhile, London vaults held 9,464 tonnes of gold at the end of June 2026, up 0.77% month-on-month and valued at around $1.2 trillion, equivalent to approximately 757,145 gold bars. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.42% to 11,015 while prices fell Rs2,715, indicating position unwinding rather than aggressive fresh short formation. Gold is currently finding support near Rs154,790, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs153,300. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs159,065, while a decisive move above this level could trigger recovery towards Rs161,850. 

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 153300-161850.

* Gold dropped as traders increased bets on an interest rate hike after Fed Warsh's remarks on curbing inflationary pressure.

* Fed chair Kevin Warsh said forward guidance should play a limited role.

* The US economy added 79,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2026 than previously estimated

Silver

Silver settled sharply lower by 1.64% at Rs236,704 as the dollar index climbed to 99.5 from a three-month low of 98.8, while short-term Treasury yields surged after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a firmer stance on inflation. Warsh warned that inflation has not meaningfully slowed and reiterated that the Federal Reserve must remain focused on bringing PCE inflation back to its fixed 2% target, increasing expectations of tighter monetary policy and limiting upside in precious metals. However, downside pressure in silver remained relatively contained as concerns over dollar debasement resurfaced following the US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of older, long-dated bonds. Meanwhile, preliminary US labor market data showed nonfarm payrolls for the year through March could be revised lower by about 79,000, highlighting cooling employment conditions and potentially supporting expectations for eventual monetary easing despite persistent inflation. London silver vault holdings stood at 28,082 tonnes at the end of June 2026, up 1.7% month-on-month and valued at around $53.1 billion, equivalent to approximately 936,052 silver bars. Fundamentally, the silver market is heading toward its sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, keeping the risk of renewed liquidity tightness elevated. The 2026 global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025, despite total demand declining 2%, while total supply is forecast to fall 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to decline 3% to a four-year low, whereas coin and bar demand could rise 18%, supported by stronger US investment demand. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling sharply by 18.34% to 5,446 while prices declined Rs3,947, indicating substantial position unwinding. Silver is currently finding support near Rs233,070, and a sustained break below this level could drag prices toward Rs229,435. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs243,115, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward Rs249,525. 

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 229435-249525.

* Silver dropped tracking the surge in short-term Treasury yields after Fed Warsh signaled a firmer stance against inflation.

* Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: inflation still above target, Fed 'has work to do'

* U.S. job growth revised down, labor market cooling more evident

Crude oil

Crude oil settled marginally higher by 0.25% at Rs7,984 as uncertainty over US-Iran diplomatic talks continued to provide support to prices, although the shift in US policy toward economic pressure rather than military action reduced the geopolitical risk premium. US-Iran negotiations show no immediate signs of resumption, while the Trump administration has reportedly told mediators that it does not intend to revive the preliminary June agreement that later collapsed. Iran and Oman have agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the Strait of Hormuz, although Tehran clarified that this does not imply an immediate reopening. Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil exports at around 15–16 million barrels per day, significantly below pre-conflict levels of 22–24 million barrels per day but well above the March low of 5–6 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4%, this year, deeper than its previous estimate of 3.7 million barrels per day, taking total supply to a forecast low of 102.02 million barrels per day as disruptions around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb continue. In the United States, crude inventories increased by only 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels for the week ended August 21, below expectations for a 597,000-barrel rise, while Cushing stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.5 million barrels to 206.8 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels to 103.4 million barrels, indicating firm refined-product demand. Refinery utilization rose to 97.4%, while net crude imports declined by 161,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision, though it raised its 2027 growth outlook. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.41% to 10,481 while prices gained Rs20. Crude oil has support at Rs7,894, and a sustained break below this level could drag prices toward Rs7,803. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,044, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs8,103.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7803-8103.

* Crude oil gains as U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks show no sign of resumption despite serious efforts by intermediaries.

* The shift in stance by the U.S. to pressure Iran economically rather than by force dampened the risk premium for crude oil.

* Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports have climbed to around 15–16 million barrels per day

Natural gas

Natural gas settled lower by 2.64% at Rs276.1 as traders booked profits following the recent price gains driven by forecasts for warmer weather and stronger cooling demand. Despite the correction, fundamentals remained supportive as US natural gas demand from LNG export facilities climbed to its highest level since late April after major Texas plants, including Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG, returned from maintenance. LSEG data showed average Lower 48 gas production at 111.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from the monthly record of 110.7 bcfd in July. Average gas flows to nine major US LNG export plants stood at 17.2 bcfd in August, matching July and remaining close to June’s record 17.4 bcfd. LSEG expects average Lower 48 demand, including exports, to decline from 112.7 bcfd this week to 111.1 bcfd next week, indicating some moderation in near-term consumption. US natural gas inventories increased by only 15 bcf during the week ended August 21, below market expectations of 20 bcf, last year’s 17 bcf injection and the five-year average build of 33 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.184 trillion cubic feet, around 0.9% below year-ago levels but still 5.5% above the five-year average, keeping storage fundamentals relatively comfortable. The EIA expects both US supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026, with dry gas production forecast at 111.2 bcfd and domestic consumption at 92.0 bcfd. LNG exports are projected to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting longer-term demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 14.26% to 40,977 while prices declined Rs7.5, indicating aggressive creation of fresh short positions. Natural gas is currently supported near Rs271.5, and a sustained break below this level could drag prices toward Rs267. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs281, while a decisive move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs286. 

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267-286.

* Natural gas edged lower as traders locked in profits after prices gained on forecasts for warmer weather.

* EIA said energy firms added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended August 21.

* Average gas output has reached 111.4 bcfd so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.

Copper

Copper settled marginally lower by 0.22% at Rs1,391.35 as profit booking emerged after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a more hawkish tone, strengthening expectations of a possible rate hike next month and weighing on risk-sensitive industrial metals. However, downside remained limited as tightening exchange inventories raised concerns over near-term copper availability. LME-registered warehouse stocks declined sharply to 107,050 tonnes from 166,775 tonnes a week earlier, while copper inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses fell 19.1% to 72,428 tonnes. Continued LME warrant cancellations also offset much of the stock increase from last week, while metal outflows toward US warehouses ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper further tightened available exchange supplies. Lower crude oil prices, as US-Iran tensions shifted from military confrontation toward economic pressure, improved broader economic sentiment and provided some support to growth-sensitive metals. China’s general public budget expenditure increased 1.3% year-on-year to CNY 16.29 trillion during the first seven months of 2026, with central government spending rising 6.2% to CNY 2.48 trillion, highlighting continued fiscal support. The global refined copper market moved into a 60,000-tonne deficit in June from a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first six months still recorded a 131,000-tonne surplus. June refined copper output stood at 2.37 million tonnes against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports declined 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Copper ore and concentrate imports fell 7.1% in July, while refined copper production increased 1.3% to 1.29 million tonnes. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.85% to 11,556 while prices fell Rs3, indicating profit booking rather than aggressive fresh short formation. Copper has support at  Rs1,386.4, and a sustained break below this level could test Rs1,381.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,398.2, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs

1,404.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1381.3-1404.9.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Warsh strengthened expectations for a rate hike next month.

* Available copper in LME-registered warehouses was at 107,050 tons, down from 166,775 tons a week earlier.

* Copper stocks in SHFE-monitored warehouses fell by 19.1% to 72,428 tons in the week.

Zinc

Zinc settled marginally lower by 0.23% at Rs414.25 as profit booking emerged after a recent rally driven by tightening supply concerns, declining LME inventories and improving economic sentiment. Chinese zinc exports have helped ease fears of an outright shortage outside China, although supply tightness and speculative positioning continue to support prices. SHFE-monitored zinc inventories declined 1.5% from the previous week, while the premium of cash LME zinc over three-month futures surged to $132 per tonne from zero in early July, reaching the highest level since December, highlighting tight nearby availability. Supply concerns were further reinforced by heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China, which threaten mining and smelting operations. Production adjustments at a Southwest China mine are expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could cut refined production by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Global mine supply is also tightening, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting weaker production. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc output fell 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Nexa reported zinc production of 79.3 kilotonnes, up 8% year-on-year, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance of 215,000–235,000 tonnes. The global refined zinc market shifted into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first half still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, reflecting strong smelter operations. However, elevated prices are weakening demand and discouraging buyers in China, limiting further upside. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.08% to 2,581 while prices fell Rs0.95. Zinc has support at Rs411, and a sustained break below this level could test Rs407.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs418.7, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs423.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 407.7-423.1.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as available stocks on LME shrank, renewing investor concerns over market tightness.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.5% from last Friday.

* Chinese zinc exports have helped cool fears of a shortage, even as supply tightness and speculative positioning continue to support prices.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 0.35% at Rs345.60, supported by declining exchange inventories, expectations of additional Chinese fiscal measures and concerns over constrained Middle East supply, although gains remained capped by improving production prospects in the region. Aluminium inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses declined 3% from the previous week, while stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at the end of July, partly reflecting reduced Middle East imports amid the Iran conflict. China’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, increasing expectations that policymakers may introduce further fiscal support to sustain economic activity and meet the annual growth target. However, production recovery in the Middle East could limit the upside, with Emirates Global Aluminium and Alba Aluminium accelerating efforts to restore operations. EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% of capacity and expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027. Global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, while Gulf production plunged 44% to 293,000 tonnes from 523,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s July aluminium production rose 2.7% year-on-year to 3.866 million tonnes, partly offsetting the Middle East decline. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year, although they declined 9.6% month-on-month. January-July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Supply concerns also emerged after Norsk Hydro reduced alumina production at Brazil’s Alunorte plant to 50% of capacity due to natural gas shortages, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes. Meanwhile, expectations of lower US tariffs on Canadian aluminium and alternative shipping routes reduced some supply risk. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.04% to 4,454 while prices gained Rs1.20. Aluminium has support at Rs

344.30, and a break below could test Rs342.90. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs346.60, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs347.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 342.9-347.5.

* Aluminium gained as aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3% from last Friday.

* Prices also gained supported by China pledging fiscal policy measures to strengthen economic growth.

* Global primary aluminium output in July fell 1.7% year on year to 6.16 million tonnes.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled sharply higher by 2.19% at Rs20,600 amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, concerns over El Nino and lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions, raising fears of reduced output in the upcoming harvest. Deficient rainfall during the early crop development phase has increased yield concerns, while carry-forward stocks accumulated over the past three to four years have declined significantly, tightening overall availability. However, the upside remained capped as monsoon activity revived across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, easing concerns over dry weather. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have ensured better water availability during the vegetative phase, while re-sowing in North Karnataka following rainfall has improved crop conditions. The market is also facing pressure from increased farmer selling during the peak harvest window, while traders remain cautious about whether improved rainfall will translate into sustained production gains. Industry estimates place carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the supply buffer. At the same time, tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, weighing on commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remains strong, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes a year earlier. April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes, supported by strong demand from China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay. China’s cumulative imports surged 2,710% to 2,108 tonnes, while Oman shipments increased 469% to 2,342 tonnes. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs19,979.60, gaining 0.11%. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.66% to 36,745 while prices gained Rs442, indicating fresh long formation. Turmeric has support at Rs20,198, and a sustained break below this level could test Rs19,796. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,836, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,072.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19796-21072.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact stoked fears of lower overall output.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 19979.6 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled higher by 0.50% at Rs20,905 as tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds supported prices, with export-grade high-purity supplies shrinking faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have tapered significantly, while blight disease in key Gujarat pockets has reduced both crop quality and harvestable quantities. However, upside remained limited as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather in North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating deliveries. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have also reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders remain cautious and prefer waiting for lower prices. Domestic processors and stockists are maintaining hand-to-mouth buying rather than aggressive forward coverage, keeping demand steady but preventing panic buying. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also pressuring Indian export premiums, although European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Domestic cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Outside India, China production is estimated at only 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. Export demand remains mixed, with India’s jeera exports falling 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports declined 25% to 44,144 tonnes. However, cumulative exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina rose sharply, increasing 1,040%, 265% and 333% respectively. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs20,518.05, down 0.63%. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 2.34% to 8,526 while prices gained Rs105. Jeera has support at Rs20,760, and a sustained break below this level could test Rs20,620. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,990, while a decisive move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,080.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20620-21080.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20518.05 Rupees dropped by -0.63 percent.