MCX Gold October is expected to find support near Rs161,000 and rise towards Rs165,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to find support near $4580 and rise towards $4720 level on weak dollar and softening of U.S treasury yields. Further, sharp decline in crude oil prices has lowered inflation expectations and may reduce pressure on U.S Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in September. As per CME Fedwatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 60% chance that Fed will keep interest rates unchanged and a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. Furthermore, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in July rose about 11% from June. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on today’s key U.S. inflation and advance GDP data for further cues.
• MCX Gold October is expected to find support near Rs161,000 and rise towards Rs165,000 level.
• MCX Silver September is expected to move in a wide range between Rs240,000 and Rs248,000 level. Only a move above Rs248,000, it would rise towards Rs250,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade higher as tight physical supply continued to underpin prices. Further, prices may find support on weak dollar. Additionally, US imported 885,000 tonnes of refined copper in the first half, up 3% from a year earlier and on pace to approach 2025’s record 1.64 million tonnes. Furthermore, large fresh withdrawals from London warehouses fueled concerns over tight inventories. Meanwhile, Investors are awaiting the official announcement regarding U.S. tariffs on imported refined copper.
• MCX Copper September is expected to find support near Rs1390 level and rise towards Rs1405 level. Only a move above Rs1405 level, it will rise towards Rs1410 level.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to face resistance near Rs350 level and dip towards Rs342. MCX Zinc September is likely to find support near Rs404 level and rise towards Rs418 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to face resistance near $85 and dip towards $78 on hopes that Strait of Hormuz could be re-opened after Iran said it had resumed talks with Oman on managing the strategic waterway. Further, as per reports, US would be returning diplomats to Middle East embassies, easing concerns about an escalation of the Iran war. Investors will keep an eye on today’s U.S weekly crude oil inventory data for further cues.
• On the data front, a strong put base at $80 strike would likely to act as key support for price. On the upside, higher call base at $85 would act as an immediate hurdle. A move below $80 mark would bring further correction towards $78 level. MCX Crude oil September is expected to face resistance near Rs8000 and dip towards Rs7500 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to face resistance near Rs276 level and dip towards Rs264 level.
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