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Gold

Gold prices settled down 0.83% at Rs1,53,094 as market participants weighed escalating Middle East tensions against their potential implications for inflation and interest rates. Iran and the US exchanged fresh threats, while Standard Chartered noted that official-sector demand and structural drivers continue to support gold, although the pace of appreciation may moderate. Swiss gold exports jumped 65% month-on-month in August, with shipments to the UK surging to 102.1 tonnes from 39.5 tonnes, while deliveries to China rose 20% to 26.1 tonnes and those to India declined 58% to 3.5 tonnes. Indian demand remained subdued as buyers awaited lower prices, with dealers quoting discounts of up to $60 per ounce, compared with $75 previously, although upcoming Dussehra and Diwali festivals could improve physical demand. In China, gold premiums narrowed to $5 per ounce from $8, supported by robust investment demand, while the People's Bank of China increased gold reserves for a sixth consecutive month in August, extending its buying streak to 22 months. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at around $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs retained its end-2027 forecast of $5,400 per ounce, stating that tighter monetary policy could slow near-term gains but not necessarily alter the longer-term trajectory, with central-bank diversification remaining a key structural driver. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.67% to 7,804 while prices fell Rs1,287. Gold is currently finding support at Rs1,52,610, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs1,52,125. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,53,865, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward Rs1,54,635.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152125-154635.

* Gold prices fell as market participants weighed developments in the Middle East.

* Iran and US trade threats after Houthi attacks

* Global rate-hike cycle in view as cenbanks take on inflation

Silver

Silver prices settled down 0.95% at Rs2,39,317 as traders monitored developments surrounding the Middle East crisis and their potential impact on inflation and monetary policy. US President Donald Trump said he was in “deciding mode” over the Iran war, keeping geopolitical risk premium elevated, while expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continued to weigh on precious metals. The Fed’s latest projections indicated one more rate increase this year, with markets pricing around a 53% probability of an October hike. However, easing US bond yields from multi-year highs could limit further strength in the dollar and provide some support to silver. US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 in the second week of September, while housing starts declined 2.6% month-on-month to 1.275 million units in August, their lowest since October 2025. Building permits also fell 2.7% to 1.394 million units, indicating continued pressure from elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints. Silver speculative net longs increased by 1,544 contracts to 12,632 for the week ended September 15, indicating some renewed positioning despite the recent price weakness. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the 2026 deficit forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial fabrication is projected to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%, supported by stronger US investment demand. Total supply is forecast to decline 2%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.56% to 12,684 while prices declined Rs2,286. Silver is finding support at Rs2,38,185, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs2,37,055. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs2,41,310, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward Rs2,43,305.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 237055-243305.

* Silver dropped as hawkish Fed bets and geopolitics revive USD demand.

* Fed officials expect one more rate increase this year following the first hike in over three years.

* Silver speculators increased net longs by 1,544 contracts to 12,632.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled down 4.2% at Rs8,836 as investors focused on improving shipment prospects from Saudi Arabia despite continued attacks by Yemeni Houthis and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran standoff. President Donald Trump indicated he could be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the United Nations General Assembly, while diplomatic efforts involving Gulf states and exchanges between the US and Iran raised hopes of easing regional tensions. US Central Command said oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks reached their highest level in six months, reducing immediate supply disruption concerns. Iraq also exported 4 million barrels in a single day in September while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, with average September exports standing at 2.6 million barrels per day. Money managers reduced their net long US crude futures and options positions by 531 contracts to 139,515 in the week ended September 15, indicating softer speculative positioning. US crude inventories declined by 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations of 1.6 million barrels. Cushing stocks fell 342,000 barrels, while refinery crude runs declined 256,000 barrels per day and utilization eased to 96.8%. Gasoline inventories increased 794,000 barrels to 207.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels to 107.9 million barrels, highlighting mixed domestic demand signals. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while the IEA warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could tighten the market if Middle East disruptions persist. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.41% to 12,734 while prices fell Rs387. Crude oil is finding support at Rs8,694, and a sustained break below this level could expose Rs8,551. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs9,039, while a decisive move above this level could lead to a test of Rs9,241.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8551-9241.

* Crude oil prices slid as investors eyed a recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia

* OPEC further lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast

* CFTC: For the week to Sep. 15, speculative net long positions in oil fell by 531 contracts to 139,515 contracts.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled down 2.4% at 272.9 as rising production, comfortable storage levels and cooler weather forecasts weighed on sentiment, while expectations of reduced cooling demand from the power sector added pressure. Above-average temperatures are now expected to cover a smaller part of the South and Southeast from September 23 to October 2, potentially reducing gas consumption for air conditioning. Lower 48 production remained strong, averaging 113.1 bcfd in September compared with August’s record monthly average of 112.2 bcfd. Meanwhile, average flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities were expected to decline to a three-week low of 17.5 bcfd, mainly because of maintenance at Cameron LNG in Louisiana. US natural gas storage increased by 44 Bcf in the week ended September 11, below market expectations of a 49 Bcf build and significantly lower than the 87 Bcf injection recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average of 74 Bcf. Total working gas inventories rose to 3.298 Tcf, standing 3.6% below last year but 3.7% above the five-year average, indicating a relatively comfortable supply position. Speculators reduced their net short positions by 153 contracts to 48,029 for the week ended September 15. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting longer-term demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9.96% to 26,012 while prices declined 6.7 rupees. Natural gas is finding support at 270.2, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of 267.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at 276.5, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward 280.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267.6-280.2.

* Natural gas prices dropped amid an increase in output and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Average flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities were expected to fall to a three-week low of 17.5 bcfd

* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by 2 this week to 134.

Copper

Copper prices settled up 0.67% at 1412.45 as expectations of a seasonal pickup in Chinese demand supported speculative buying, while traders awaited the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and clarity on potential refined copper tariffs. Expectations of inventory replenishment in China ahead of the September 25 holiday and October 1-7 National Day break provided additional support. The Yangshan copper premium reached $124 per tonne last week, its highest in nearly four years, before easing to $119, indicating firm demand for imported metal. Available copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses declined to 133,725 tonnes following 9,600 tonnes of cancellations in Asia, while the LME cash copper premium widened to $26 per tonne from an $86 discount on September 14. Chilean copper output declined 9.4% in July, with Codelco production down 5% to 112,800 tonnes and Escondida output falling 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes, although Collahuasi production increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. Peru's copper production rose 3.7% year-on-year to 236,515 tonnes in July, while January-July output increased 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. The global refined copper market shifted to a 60,000-tonne deficit in June from a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 131,000-tonne surplus. Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 12.19% to 7,579 while prices gained 9.4 rupees. Copper is finding support at 1400.7, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of 1388.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1422.2, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward 1431.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1388.8-1431.8.

* Copper prices rose as expectations of a seasonal pickup in demand in China sustained speculative buying.

* Renewed speculative demand has pushed copper higher after funds cut their net long positions in Comex copper futures.

* The Yangshan copper finished last week at $124 a ton, its highest in nearly four years, although it eased to $119 on Monday.
 

Zinc

Zinc prices settled up 0.64% at 435.8 as concerns over tightening supply and lower Chinese production supported buying, although gains were capped by a stronger US dollar and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. China’s zinc output declined 1.8% year-on-year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking the first annual contraction in nearly a year and the weakest performance since May 2025, mainly due to smelter maintenance, mining disruptions, negative spot treatment charges and elevated domestic inventories. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks increased 0.6% from the previous week, while reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter added to supply concerns. Tight availability outside China remained evident, with the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract at $124 per tonne, while low treatment charges indicated constrained concentrate availability. Production declines at major mines including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska further supported the supply-tightness narrative, although rising Chinese exports could provide some relief to global availability. Producer data remained mixed, with Nexa’s Q2 zinc production rising 8% year-on-year to 79.3 kt, while Glencore’s first-half own-sourced output declined 21% to 365,600 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first six months still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Elevated prices continued to discourage buying from Chinese consumers. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 11.62% to 1,787 while prices gained 2.75 rupees. Zinc is finding support at 432.5, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of 429.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at 438, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward 440.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 429.2-440.2.

* Zinc gained as China’s zinc output contracted for the first time in nearly a year in August 2026.

* China’s zinc production declined by 1.8% YoY to 639,000 mt, weakest annual performance since May 2025.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% from last Friday
 

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled down 1.18% at 349 as expectations of improving supply from smelter restarts, capacity ramp-ups and expansion projects weighed on prices, although tight physical availability limited the downside. Aluminium supply from the Gulf region remained disrupted by the US-Iran war, with GCC production falling 44% year-on-year in July, while LME inventories stayed near a 36-year low and SHFE stocks declined 7.7% from the previous week. China’s rising production and exports could gradually ease global supply shortages, with August aluminium output reaching a record 3.98 million tonnes, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August production increased 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. At the current pace, annualised output would exceed China’s 45-million-tonne capacity ceiling. China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports stood at 626,000 tonnes in August, down from 643,000 tonnes in July, but January-August exports still increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. Aluminium Bahrain was operating at an annualised rate of 1.3 million tonnes, around 19% below pre-war capacity, after production lines were shut following restrictions on Strait of Hormuz exports. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports rose 22.7% month-on-month to 246,600 tonnes at end-August, indicating some regional stock accumulation. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, highlighting continued supply constraints despite improving Chinese availability. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 15.74% to 2,665 while prices fell 4.15 rupees. Aluminium is finding support at 347, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of 345. On the upside, resistance is placed at 352, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward 355.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345-355.

* Aluminum dropped as supply outlook could improve as several smelters restart and ramp up previously curtailed capacity

* Japan's August aluminium stocks up 22.7% m/m

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled down 0.25% at Rs20,218 on profit booking after recent gains driven by tight hand-to-mouth supplies, concerns over El Nino impact on the newly sown crop, and lower-than-expected sowing expansion across key growing regions, raising fears of reduced production in the upcoming harvest. Prices had gained amid deficient rainfall and concerns that continued dry conditions during early crop development could adversely affect yields, while carryforward stocks have declined steadily over the past three to four years. Industry estimates indicate carryforward stocks near 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, keeping the overall availability buffer tight. However, upside remained limited as monsoon activity revived across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka, easing dry-weather concerns, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured better water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka was also completed following rainfall, improving crop conditions and reducing crop-failure speculation. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric continues to support compliant stocks. Selling pressure from farmers also increased during the peak harvest window. India turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, but cumulative Apr-Jul exports rose 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka rose 644% to 156 tonnes, and Nigeria increased 983% to 69 tonnes. Switzerland and Zambia also recorded strong growth. In Nizamabad, spot prices ended at Rs20,132.55, up 0.86%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 0.25% to 36,250 while prices declined Rs50. Turmeric is finding support at Rs19,990, below which Rs19,760 may be tested, while resistance is seen at Rs20,370, with a move above this level opening scope for Rs20,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19760-20520.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact.

* Downside further seen limited due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20132.55 Rupees gained by 0.86 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled down 0.11% at 21835 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the upcoming season, while favorable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating market arrivals. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while large industrial spice grinders remain cautious on bulk purchases, preferring to wait for lower prices. However, downside remains limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with daily arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper significantly. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat regions have reduced crop quality and harvestable volumes. India’s cumin production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, below 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Internationally, China’s production estimate has declined to 70-80 thousand tonnes from earlier expectations near 1 lakh tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and Libya exports rose 450% to 341 tonnes, but cumulative exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, limiting overall export growth. In Unjha, spot prices ended at 21481.6, gaining 0.02%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.66% to 7,749 while prices declined 25 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 21730, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of 21610. On the upside, resistance is placed at 21930, while a decisive move above this level could open the way toward 22010.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21610-22010.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected

* However downside seen limited amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21481.6 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views