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Morning Market Outlook

* Market is expected to open on a positive note due to a rally in global markets, a decline in the US Dollar Index to a 4-month low at 104, and oil prices falling to a 3-year low below $70.

* Additionally, the RBI has announced a fresh Rs 1 lakh crore open market operation (OMO) and a $10 billion forex swap to inject liquidity into the banking system and manage the dollar, which will further boost market sentiment.

* On the global front, Asian markets gained up to 1%, driven by auto stocks, while the US market rose over 1% after the government granted a one-month tariff reprieve for auto imports from Mexico and Canada, signalling potential reductions in trade tensions.

* Banking, Auto, and Real estate stocks are expected to perform well following RBI's liquidity boost measures.

* Gift Nifty is flat to positive.

NIFTY (CMP : 22337) :

Nifty immediate support is at 22100 then 22000 zones while resistance at 22500 then 22700 zones. Now it has to hold above 22200 zones for an up move towards 22500 then 22700 zones while supports have shifted higher to 22100 then 22000 zones.

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 48490) :

Bank Nifty support is at 48250 then 48000 zones while resistance at 48750 then 49000 zones. Now it has to hold above 48500 zones for a bounce towards 48750 then 49000 levels while a hold below the same could see some weakness towards 48250 then 48000 zones.

Derivative Outlook

* Nifty March future closed at 22,441.35 with a premium of 104.05 point v/s 108.40 point premium in the last session.

* Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.86 to 1.05 level.

* India VIX decreased by 1.16% to 13.67 level.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 22500 then 22600 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22000 then 21500 strike. Call writing is seen at 22500 then 22350 strike while Put writing is seen at 22200 then 22300 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 21800 to 22800 zones while an immediate range between 22100 to 22500 levels.

* Option Buying : Buy weekly Nifty 22300 Call if it holds above 22200 zones. Buy Bank Nifty 49500 Call if it holds above 48500 zones.

* Option Strategy : Nifty weekly Bull Call Spread (Buy 22350 CE and Sell 22500 CE) at net premium cost of 50-55 points. Bank Nifty Bull Call Spread (Buy 49000 CE and Sell 49500 CE) at net premium cost of 170-200 points.

* Option Writing : Sell weekly Nifty 22050 PE and 22550 CE with strict double SL. Sell Bank Nifty 45500 PE and 51200 CE with strict double SL.

Global Market Summary:

* US Markets closed higher in choppy trading on Wednesday, as investors cheered the likely easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and major trading partners. The White House announced a one-month exemption from the newly imposed 25% tariffs on vehicle imports from Mexico and Canada, offering temporary relief to U.S. automakers. Dow closed 1.1% higher, S&P 500 advanced by 1.1%, while the NASDAQ climbed 1.5%.

* Brent crude oil futures fell 2.2% to $69.5 per barrel on Wednesday, nearing a six-month low.

* European markets gained 1.5-2.0%. Dow Futures is trading Flat. Asian markets are trading 1.0-2.0% higher.

* Global Cues: Positive

Indian Market Summary:

* A key driving factor was indication from the US Commerce Secretary that the Trump administration could look at mid pathway for reducing tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods.

* Nifty50 ended with 1.2% gains at 22,337 level. The broader market witnessed strong buying interest for the second consecutive day with Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices rising 2.4% and 3% respectively.

* FIIs: -Rs2,895 crore DIIs: +Rs3,371 crore. GIFT Nifty is trading up 43 points (+0.2%).

* Domestic Cues: Positive

News and Impact :

* Zydus Lifesciences: The firm received the final approval from the US FDA to manufacture Dasatinib Tablets. Dasatinib is used for the treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph+) chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) in the chronic phase. Dasatinib tablets had annual sales of $1,807.7 million in the United States (as per IQVIA MAT January 2025). Impact: Positive

* Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services: The company has entered into an agreement with Tech Mahindra. Tech Mahindra will utilize Zaggle's spend management dashboard, Zatix, for improved visibility on their corporate and purchase card spends, issued in partnership with SBI Cards. Impact: Positive

Castrol : CMP Rs 222, TP 260, 17% Upside, Buy

* Saudi Aramco is considering bidding for BP’s Castrol lubricant assets, which could be worth around $10 billion. Aramco is particularly interested in Castrol’s operations in fast-growing markets like India.

* Brent oil price below $70 per barrel is also positive for Castrol

* Castrol’s 4QCY24 EBITDA was a beat on our estimate, as the EBITDA margin came in at 27.8% (our est: 21.7%). Its focus on brand building and expanding distribution is expected to drive volume growth and market share.

* CSTRL maintained its guidance of growing higher than the industry’s average growth rate of 4-5% while aiming for a 22-25% EBITDA margin for CY25. We estimate ~23% EBITDA margin in both CY25 & CY26.

* CSTRL has always enjoyed a strong brand legacy, and we are confident in its ability to maintain profitability through an improved product mix, stringent cost-control measures, and the launch of advanced products that command better realization.

View: Buy

Shriram Finance : CMP Rs 632, TP 700, 11% Upside, Buy???????

* RBI on Wednesday announced more measures to Boost Liquidity With Fresh Rs 1 Lakh Crore OMO, $10 Billion Forex Swap. This will be positive for Financial system.

* Shriram Finance (SHFL) is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in vehicle finance, particularly as demand for commercial and passenger vehicles gains momentum.

* With a diversified lending portfolio, the company is set to benefit from lower borrowing costs, which will enhance net interest margins and profitability.

* Its strong focus on asset quality & collection efficiency suggests that it is well-prepared to navigate the evolving credit environment.

* We expect 18%/19% AUM/PAT CAGR over FY24-27 and expected RoA/RoE of 3.2%/16% in FY26. View: Buy

Quant Intraday Sell Ideas???????

What is this????????

Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good cushioning during a black swan event.

What are the rules?

* Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)

* Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.

* Entry: We short 2 stocks daily (intraday)

* Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an intraday call

* SL: is placed at 1% of the open.

* Book profit: At 1% fall since open.

* In special situations the book profit might be delayed if the stock is in free fall.

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