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Gold

Gold prices declined by 1.16% to settle at 143,711, pressured by a sharp surge in crude oil prices and renewed inflation concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the interim agreement aimed at ending the Iran conflict was "over." The escalation in geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices, raising fears that persistent inflation could keep U.S. interest rates elevated for longer, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Despite the price decline, central bank buying remained supportive. The People's Bank of China recorded its largest monthly gold purchase in more than two and a half years, adding nearly 15 metric tons in June and extending its buying streak to 20 consecutive months. Tanzania's central bank also confirmed purchases of about 28 metric tons of gold over the past 18 months to strengthen its foreign exchange reserves. Bank of America lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast by 14% to $4,360, citing expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, while still projecting gold could eventually reach $5,000 once the tightening cycle concludes. Investment demand remained resilient, with global gold ETFs attracting net inflows of $8 billion during the first half of the year despite June witnessing outflows of $8.9 billion. Physical demand showed mixed trends as buying in India softened after prices rebounded from recent lows, while demand in China improved modestly. Gold holdings in London vaults rose marginally to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May, reflecting stable institutional holdings. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.95% alongside the price decline. Gold is expected to find immediate support at 142,325, with further weakness exposing 140,940, while resistance is seen at 145,225, followed by 146,740 on sustained recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140940-146740.

*  Gold prices fell as oil prices surged and inflation concerns intensified.

*  Bank of America, said it is reducing 2026 average gold forecasts by 14% to $4,360 on a more hawkish Fed

*  Global gold ETFs recorded a net inflow of $8 billion in the first half of the year.

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply by 3.21% to settle at 223,437 as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation concerns following U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that the interim peace agreement with Iran was "over." The announcement triggered a surge of more than 5% in crude oil prices after Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly targeted U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to recent U.S. strikes and the revocation of Iran's oil sales license. Higher energy prices strengthened expectations that inflation could remain elevated, with markets now pricing a 66% probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in September, up from 62% previously. Investors are also awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for further guidance on monetary policy. In the physical market, India's restrictions on silver imports have resulted in significant supply shortages despite relatively subdued demand. Domestic silver premiums climbed to $6.5 per ounce, the highest level in six months, compared to discounts of up to $5.5 per ounce in May. Government data showed India's silver imports dropped sharply, with May imports falling 87% in value and 94% in volume year-on-year to just 33 metric tons, the lowest level since February 2023. Import restrictions have been further tightened to include silver grain and powder, while import duties remain elevated at 15% to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% to 27,611 tonnes at the end of May, indicating stable institutional inventories. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.44% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 218,805, with a break below likely to test 214,165, while resistance is placed at 229,500, followed by 235,555 if buying interest returns.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 214165-235555.

* Silver fell after US President Donald Trump declared an interim peace deal with Iran "over."

* Trump confirmed the June memorandum of understanding with Iran was finished and ruled out further engagement with Tehran.

* India's restrictions on silver imports have created shortages, pushing premiums to their highest levels in six months.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged 5.49% to settle at 7,073 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over global supply disruptions. Market sentiment strengthened after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the United States could launch additional strikes on Iran and stated that the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict was "over." He also indicated that Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export terminal, could become a potential target, intensifying fears over disruptions to global crude supplies. The renewed conflict overshadowed earlier expectations of an oversupplied market despite OPEC+ continuing to increase production quotas. China also supported supply by lifting refined fuel export restrictions for the remainder of July and allowing a private refiner to resume exports after a four-month suspension. HSBC revised its Brent crude oil price outlook lower, forecasting an average of $80 per barrel for 2026 and $65 per barrel for 2027, reflecting expectations of normal Gulf oil exports resuming by the end of September. In the United States, crude oil inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels, while gasoline stocks also posted a larger-than-expected draw, indicating resilient fuel demand. However, distillate inventories increased and crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub rose for the first time in nine weeks. Net crude imports also increased during the reporting period. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed another production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, although actual output remains below pre-conflict levels due to earlier disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 3.03% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at 6,794, followed by 6,516, while resistance is expected at 7,323, with a sustained breakout potentially extending gains toward 7,574.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6516-7574.

* Crude oil jumped after U.S. President Trump warned Iran that the United States will likely engage in additional strikes

* Trump said that the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran to end the conflict was "over"

* China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 1.25% to settle at 307.8, as expectations of above-normal storage levels outweighed support from warmer weather forecasts and steady LNG export demand. Despite forecasts for above-average temperatures through July 23, which are expected to increase cooling demand and boost gas consumption for electricity generation, traders remained focused on ample inventory levels. Financial data from LSEG showed average dry gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, while total gas demand, including exports, is projected to remain stable at 109.8 bcfd over the next two weeks. LNG exports also remained firm, with average gas flows to the nine major U.S. export terminals rising to 17.8 bcfd in July from 17.4 bcfd in June, although still below the record 18.8 bcfd reached in April. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, working gas in storage increased by 87 billion cubic feet to 2,922 Bcf for the week ending June 26. Inventories remain 23 Bcf below year-ago levels but stand 175 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating a comfortable supply position. The EIA also reaffirmed its outlook for record U.S. natural gas production and demand in the coming years, forecasting production to rise to 111.0 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption and LNG exports are also expected to reach new highs. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 12% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at 303.1, with further downside toward 298.4, while resistance is seen at 316.6, followed by 325.4 if buying momentum strengthens.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 298.4-325.4.

* Natural gas slid on expectations the amount of gas in storage will remain higher than normal.

* US dry gas production remains below December 2025's monthly record of 110.6 bcfd

* Storage likely stayed about 6.4% above normal in the latest reported week

Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.62% to settle at 1,268.1 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East strengthened the U.S. dollar and raised concerns over global manufacturing activity. Renewed attacks between the United States and Iran, along with tighter restrictions on Iranian energy exports, lifted energy costs and increased expectations of higher interest rates, dampening the demand outlook for industrial metals. Supply concerns, however, continued to provide underlying support. Disruptions in sulphuric acid availability due to the regional conflict have affected copper refining operations, while Chile's copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories also fell 9.6% over the week, reflecting improving demand in China. At the same time, China's refined copper production rose 2.2% year-on-year in May, while unwrought copper imports increased to a seven-month high as investment in power grid infrastructure remained strong. The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper deficit of 145,000 metric tons in April, reversing the surplus recorded in March, although the market remains in surplus for the first four months of the year. Meanwhile, Ivanhoe Mines expects higher production from its Kamoa-Kakula project during the second half of 2026, which could improve future supply. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per metric ton, citing tighter global supply conditions, while Citi lifted its near-term forecast to $14,500 per ton amid expectations of continued supply constraints and tariff-related uncertainty. However, rapidly rising Comex inventories and expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy continue to weigh on sentiment. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 0.12% alongside lower prices. Copper is expected to find immediate support at 1,257, followed by 1,245.8, while resistance is seen at 1,280.6 and then 1,293 on further recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1245.8-1293.

* Copper fell after the escalation in the Middle East war strengthened the dollar and hampered the outlook on global manufacturing.

* The US and Iran exchanged attacks, prompting Washington to block Iranian energy sales and President Trump to label the current ceasefire as invalid.

* World Bank projects China's economic growth to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, citing a prolonged property market downturn.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.19% to settle at 368.8, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and encouraging manufacturing data from major global economies. Market sentiment improved after manufacturing indicators from China, Europe, and the United States signaled continued industrial resilience despite rising input costs. U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month in June, while China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting healthy domestic output. However, inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.2% during the week, indicating firm physical demand. Supply concerns continued to underpin prices as several major zinc producers faced operational disruptions. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating below capacity following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming production after a fire-related shutdown. In addition, earlier seismic activity at Boliden's Garpenberg mine has raised concerns over prolonged production constraints. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group continues to forecast a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tons for the year despite expectations of increasing mine supply. Meanwhile, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 tons in March, reflecting improving market fundamentals. Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting also plans to raise refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026-27 financial year. Goldman Sachs expects a small global zinc surplus in 2026 due to rising mine supply but projects tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows while demand continues to expand by around 2% annually. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.73% alongside higher prices. Zinc has immediate support at 366.7, followed by 364.5, while resistance is seen at 371.0 and 373.1 on further upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 364.5-373.1.

* Zinc gained supported by tight near-term supply conditions.

* Prices gained supported by signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices advanced by 1.26% to settle at 337.45, supported by renewed supply concerns following fresh tensions between the United States and Iran. Market sentiment strengthened after new U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz revived fears of supply disruptions across the Gulf region, a key hub for global aluminium production. Japanese buyers also agreed to pay a premium of $395 per metric ton for July-September shipments, up 13% from the previous quarter, reflecting tighter physical market conditions. Additional support came from continued declines in inventories held in London Metal Exchange warehouses, with stocks falling to 292,425 tonnes, the lowest level since September 2022. On the supply side, Emirates Global Aluminium announced that production at its Al Taweelah complex is recovering faster than expected after earlier disruptions, although full output restoration may take up to a year. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro plans to partially restart production at its Slovalco joint venture in Slovakia under a new long-term power agreement. In China, aluminium inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.4%, while global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May according to the International Aluminium Institute. However, higher Chinese production and increasing output from Indonesian smelters continue to limit upside potential. China's aluminium production rose 1.7% in May and reached 19.22 million tonnes during the first five months of the year, while exports increased 5.7% in May and more than 10% over the same period. Imports of unwrought aluminium also rose 6.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong domestic demand. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.89% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at 334.1, followed by 330.5, while resistance is expected at 340.6 and 343.5 on further upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 330.5-343.5.

* Aluminium prices gained as supply and risk concerns rose after new tests to the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

* Japan aluminium buyers agree to pay Q3 premiums of $395 per ton, as much as 13% higher from the previous quarter.

* Further, continuing outflows from stocks in the LME-registered warehouses provided support.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower by 0.33% to settle at 17,880 as profit booking emerged after recent gains, while improving monsoon rainfall slightly eased concerns over the upcoming crop. Better weather conditions have created expectations of improved production, giving the market a softer near-term tone. However, traders continue to closely monitor rainfall distribution, as sustained weather support will be crucial for determining the final crop outlook. Despite the recent correction, the overall supply situation remains fundamentally tight due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks from the previous season. Selling pressure also increased as farmers accelerated stock liquidation during the peak arrival period. Higher daily arrivals across major mandis temporarily outpaced immediate buying demand, leading to weaker prices. In addition, reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals forced sellers to offer discounts. Although carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than more than 20 lakh bags last season, the pace of stock depletion has moderated as buyers delay purchases or switch to lower-priced alternatives. Export demand remains supportive, with India's turmeric exports increasing marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong demand from China, where imports surged to 1,455 tonnes from just 9 tonnes a year earlier, along with robust shipments to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan, offset weaker exports to the UAE and the United States. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers also continues to support premium-quality stocks. Meanwhile, the Nizamabad spot market recorded a 0.99% increase in prices, reflecting steady physical demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.89% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at 17,638, followed by 17,394, while resistance is expected at 18,138 and 18,394 if buying interest strengthens.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17394-18394.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased crop concerns.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production

* Growing orders for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the EU are supporting prices for compliant stocks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 17075.5 Rupees gained by 0.99 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.21% to settle at 20,330 as traders booked profits amid increased arrivals and aggressive selling by farmers seeking liquidity for Kharif sowing. Favorable weather across North-West India accelerated harvesting and drying activities, leading to faster market arrivals and easing immediate supply concerns. Rising stocks in NCDEX warehouses have also reduced the urgency for spot purchases by traders. Export demand remained mixed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt logistics, while buying from China remained irregular and highly price-sensitive. Large domestic spice processors also maintained a cautious approach, preferring hand-to-mouth purchases rather than building inventory. Additional pressure came from expectations of improved production in competing origins such as Turkey and Syria, which weighed on India's export premium. However, the downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds. Export-grade, high-purity supplies are shrinking rapidly, while daily arrivals in key markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline. Reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have also affected crop quality and reduced the availability of premium produce. Market participants continue to expect stronger buying interest from China and steady demand from Europe and North America for residue-compliant, high-quality lots. Production estimates indicate India's jeera output may decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower sowing. Export data showed India's jeera shipments fell 18% year-on-year in April 2026, mainly because of a sharp decline in exports to the UAE, although strong growth in Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the weakness. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 10.31% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at 20,150, followed by 19,970, while resistance is expected at 20,610 and 20,890 on any recovery.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19970-20890.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20484 Rupees dropped by -0.17 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views