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Published on 30/07/2021 12:08:48 PM | Source: Yes Securities Ltd

Rollover Analysis –July 21 : Two consecutive series of consolidation for Nifty by YES Securities

Posted in Market Outlook| #Market Outlook #Yes Securities Ltd

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Two consecutive series of consolidation for Nifty

Action beneath the index seen as high beta names outperforming massively to stalwart large cap names, Nifty ended the penultimate July expiry at 15779 levels after remarkable swings seen in past 2 days

Highlights for the July series were

a) Large whipsaw moves seen in expiry week as first half largely dominated by options writers

b) Back to Back large crack for India VIX down another 10% after 25% correction last month

c) FII’s continued to unwind long positions at higher levels/HDFC twins big dragger on Index

d) IT/Metals/Cement sectoral stocks going through is purple patch. Rollovers for Nifty/Bank‐Nifty stood at 83% (95lacs shrs)/81% (20lakh shrs) vs 84% (97lacs shrs)/84% (19lakh shrs) previous month, Nifty/BankNifty aggregate base increased by ~6/10% from previous month total OI, Market wide rolls stood at 92%vs 90% previous month as action picks up in sector specific moves.

FII’s derivative stats indicates long short index futures ratio at 2.1x for Aug. series vs 3 months avg. of 5.3x levels. while Index futures short carry forward at 69% vs 3 months avg. of 56%. On options front, Max. call/put OI on Nifty for Aug monthly series stands at 16,000 calls (OI 1.8mn) and 15,000 put (OI ~2.6mn) shares. Outlook remained positive with stock specific moves, Nifty likely to aim above 16k mark with decent support now seen at 15600 levels. 

 

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