Below are Views On RBI Monetary Policy By Mr. Amar Ambani, Yes Securities
“With Bond markets pricing in a status quo well in advance, MPC barely surprised in terms of accommodative stance. All the members of the MPC unanimously voted for no change in policy rates. The central bank reiterated its FY22 real GDP growth projection of +10.5%, while sees inflation trajectory to hover around 5% in H1 FY22. RBI vehemently articulated that that absorption of excess liquidity through reverse repo should not be construed as reversal of accommodative policy stance. RBI governor expressed the need for orderly evolution of yields and will initiate 1 trillion of OMOs during Q1 FY22 to combat extreme volatility.
RBI’s liquidity support will certainly help in assuaging market apprehensions given that supply of G-Sec paper will remain elevated on the back of frontloading of market borrowing. For FY22 as a whole, OMO operations are expected to be above INR 3 trillion, similar to FY21 level. Possibility of inclusion of Indian G-secs in the global bond indices will also absorb the supply. Nevertheless, we expect 10year yields to inch higher, possibly trade in the range of 6.2-6.25% in the near term, as there are concerns over stubborn core inflation, resurgent COVID infections, renewed localized lockdowns and relatively higher sovereign yields in US.
Additional measures announced that are positive for smaller HFCs, NBFCs and MFIs were on-tap TLTRO scheme extended by 6 months and additional liquidity support of 500 billion to AIFIs. Key beneficiaries of these measures could be Can Fin, Repco, Home First, Shriram City and MFIs like CREDAG and Spandana.”
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