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Gold

Gold settled 0.9% higher at Rs 159,425, supported by a surprise US Treasury liquidity move that pushed bond yields and the dollar lower, although rising oil prices and hawkish Federal Reserve signals capped the upside. The US Treasury announced that it would double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated notes and bonds, easing pressure in the bond market. Meanwhile, the Fed’s July meeting minutes showed persistent concerns over inflation, with some policymakers indicating that further rate increases could be required if price pressures remain elevated. Traders are currently pricing a 67% probability of a Fed hold in September. Morgan Stanley expects gold to exceed $5,000 an ounce in 2027, potentially sooner, citing expectations of a prolonged Fed pause, although inflation data could increase volatility. CFTC data showed COMEX gold net long positions rose by 9,470 contracts in the week ended August 11 to 141,868 contracts, indicating continued investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuating real interest rates. Physical demand remained subdued in key Asian markets. Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $62 an ounce, the highest in more than two months, as elevated bullion prices curbed consumption. India’s net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter, while domestic gold demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, second-quarter gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, supported by stronger central-bank purchases of 289 tonnes, which offset 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes. Technically, gold remains under fresh buying as open interest increased 1.36% to 10,593 contracts while prices gained Rs 1,429. Support is placed at Rs 157,630, followed by Rs 155,835, while resistance is seen at Rs 160,610. A sustained move above Rs 160,610 could open the way toward Rs 161,795.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 155835-161795.

* Gold gained as the US Treasury's intervention on bond markets lowered the dollar and reignited the debasement trade.

* U.S. Treasury Department said it would double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated notes and bonds.

* Inflation concerns deepened at FOMC July meeting, minutes show

Silver

Silver settled 2.73% higher at Rs 243,243, supported by diminishing expectations of a near-term US Federal Reserve rate hike amid escalating Middle East tensions and weaker US economic data, while Treasury actions also influenced bond-market conditions. The US Treasury announced plans to more than double repurchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt after the 30-year yield reached its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the Fed’s July meeting minutes showed that some policymakers favored raising interest rates this year to prevent stronger inflationary pressure later. US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply missing expectations of a 0.1% increase, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined to 51 in early August from 55.2 in July. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores increased 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, highlighting continued industrial activity. CFTC data showed silver net long positions declined marginally by 755 contracts to 10,312 contracts in the week ended August 11. London vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at $53.1 billion. Fundamentally, the silver market is heading toward its sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, raising the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand forecast to decline 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Global supply is forecast to decline 2%, while reduced ETP outflows and improved physical availability have eased the liquidity pressure seen during the previous squeeze. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 7.1% to 9,954 contracts while prices gained Rs 6,456. Silver is getting support at Rs 237,610, and a break below this level could expose Rs 231,970. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 246,945, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs 250,640.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 231970-250640.

* Silver gains as inflation risks pressure U.S. dollar amid ongoing U.S.-Iran faceoff

* Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting showed several policymakers prepared ‌to raise interest rates.

* Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a Fed hold in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 1.88% higher at Rs 8,304, supported by persistent uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks and rising tensions involving the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran, which increased concerns over potential supply disruptions from West Asia. US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked, while US President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Tehran, warning of economic consequences for countries providing support to Iran and describing the measures as the most crushing economic operation imposed on a country. The geopolitical situation continued to provide a risk premium to crude prices despite mixed US inventory data. According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels in the week ended August 14, while stocks at the Cushing delivery hub declined by 1.3 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 216,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization rose by 1 percentage point, indicating stronger refinery activity. US gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels to 209.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 1.5 million barrels to 105.6 million barrels. Net US crude imports fell by 1.75 million barrels per day, partially offsetting the overall inventory build. OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, although it remains more optimistic than the International Energy Agency, which expects demand to decline in 2026. OPEC also raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. The balance between geopolitical supply risks and softer demand expectations remains crucial for the near-term outlook. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying as open interest increased 2.33% to 12,710 contracts while prices gained Rs 153. Support is placed at Rs 8,118, followed by Rs 7,933, while resistance is seen at Rs 8,446. A sustained move above Rs 8,446 could open the way toward Rs 8,589.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7933-8589.

* Crude oil gains amid prevailing uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace talks and tensions involving UAE, Oman and Iran.

* President Trump sharpened his rhetoric against Tehran, warning of economic consequences against any country that provided "any type of lifeline to Iran."

* Crude inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels in the week ended August 14, the EIA said.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 3.58% lower at Rs 261.1 as record US production encouraged profit-taking after prices reached a nearly four-week high in the previous session. The latest Energy Information Administration data showed US utilities added only 16 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended August 14, below market expectations of 19 bcf, the 19 bcf injection during the same week last year and the five-year average of 29 bcf. Despite the smaller-than-average injection, inventories stood at 3.169 trillion cubic feet, 0.9% below last year and around 6.2% above the five-year average. Record output and mild spring weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March, although warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast through September 3, supporting cooling demand. Average US Lower 48 gas output reached a record 111.4 bcfd so far in August, exceeding July’s monthly record of 110.7 bcfd. LSEG expects Lower 48 demand including exports to decline from 114.8 bcfd this week to 112.9 bcfd next week. Gas flows to major US LNG export plants averaged 17.2 bcfd in August, broadly stable from July but below the June record of 17.4 bcfd. The EIA expects US dry gas production to increase from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the August forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Fundamentally, strong production and elevated inventories remain bearish, while warmer weather and rising LNG exports provide support. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased 12.9% to 31,166 contracts while prices declined Rs 9.7. Support is placed at Rs 257.7, followed by Rs 254.2, while resistance is seen at Rs 267.1. A sustained move above Rs 267.1 could lead to a test of Rs 273.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.2-273.

* Natural gas prices slipped as traders balanced expectations for continued hot weather against ample supply.

* Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.

* Record output and mild spring weather this year have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher.

Copper

Copper settled marginally lower by 0.03% at Rs 1,371.7 as rising LME inventories eased supply concerns and offset support from a sharp decline in the dollar. LME copper stocks increased by a further 12,425 tonnes to 235,975 tonnes, up 11% from a week earlier but still 40% below levels three months ago. Rising inventories have reduced concerns over tight supply caused by earlier shipments to US warehouses ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper. However, supply disruptions continue to provide underlying support. Lundin Mining reduced its 2026 Caserones copper production guidance to 120,000-130,000 tonnes from 130,000-140,000 tonnes after a severe winter storm disrupted operations in Chile. Antofagasta also lowered its 2026 production forecast to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes following a shutdown at Los Pelambres due to extreme rainfall. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the US to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes. However, the International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May after a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the January-May market surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. Chinese refined copper production increased 1.3% year-on-year to 1.29 million tonnes in July, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined 11.5% to 425,000 tonnes. January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes, indicating softer import demand. China’s copper ore and concentrate imports also declined 7.1% year-on-year in July. Meanwhile, COMEX copper stocks reached a record 670,273 tonnes, reinforcing near-term supply availability. Overall, rising exchange inventories and weaker Chinese imports remain bearish, while mine disruptions and expectations of a larger future deficit provide medium-term support. Technically, copper is under long liquidation as open interest declined 2.83% to 8,101 contracts while prices fell Rs 0.4. Support is placed at Rs 1,364.8, followed by Rs 1,358, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,377.7. A sustained move above Rs 1,377.7 could lead to a test of Rs 1,383.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1358-1383.8.

* Copper edged down as higher inventories on the LME relieved supply concerns.

* London Metal Exchange copper inventories have surged by more than 50% in three days

* Lundin Mining has lowered its 2026 copper production guidance after a second severe winter storm disrupted operations at its Caserones mine.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.74% higher at Rs 402.15, supported by tightening supply concerns and potential production disruptions in China following heavy rainfall and flooding in mining and smelting regions. Production adjustments at a Southwest China mine are expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could cut refined output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Global supply is also tightening, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production declined 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, equivalent to 48% of its full-year guidance, while Dugald River output increased 3% year-on-year to 87,000 tonnes. Nexa reported second-quarter zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades. However, upside remains limited by rising inventories and weaker demand at elevated prices. Nearly 10,000 tonnes were delivered into LME warehouses in Asia, while Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories increased 2.1% from the previous week. The latest LME Commitment of Traders report showed zinc long positions rising 7% to a record 110,302 lots, while short positions increased 11% to 54,886 lots, leaving net long positions at 55,416 lots. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus reached 163,000 tonnes compared with 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s refined zinc production reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, highlighting strong smelter activity. Overall, supply disruptions provide support, while elevated inventories, Chinese demand weakness and the existing global surplus limit the upside. Technically, zinc is under fresh buying as open interest increased 3.13% to 2,342 contracts while prices gained Rs 2.95. Support is placed at Rs 399.2, followed by Rs 396.2, while resistance is seen at Rs 404. A sustained move above Rs 404 could lead to a test of Rs 405.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 396.2-405.8.

* Zinc gains amid tightening supply and growing concerns over production disruptions in China.

* Zinc’s long positions rose by 7% to 110,302 lots, the highest ever recorded - LME COTR

* Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes for H1 2026, down 21%, year on year.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.85% lower at Rs 345.7 as expectations of faster production restarts in the Middle East eased supply concerns, while producers increasingly used alternative shipping routes to avoid disruptions. Emirates Global Aluminium and Alba Aluminium are progressing with production resumptions, with EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter operating at 18% of capacity and expected to return toward previous output levels in early 2027. China’s aluminium production increased 3.8% year-on-year to around 3.9 million tonnes in July, providing additional supply and limiting the upside. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, mainly due to Middle Eastern disruptions. Gulf production plunged 44% to 293,000 tonnes from 523,000 tonnes a year earlier, while daily output fell to 9,800 tonnes from a pre-war baseline of 17,800 tonnes. However, stronger Chinese production partly offset the regional decline, with China producing 3.866 million tonnes in July. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes in July, although they declined 9.6% month-on-month. January-July exports reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year, highlighting growing availability from China. Japan’s aluminium inventories at three major ports declined 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July, reflecting reduced Middle Eastern imports. Supply risks remain from Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery, which reduced alumina output to 50% of capacity due to lower natural gas availability, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes. A potential US trade deal that could reduce tariffs on Canadian aluminium to 25% also weighed on sentiment. Overall, Middle Eastern production losses remain supportive, but rising Chinese output, higher exports and expectations of faster restarts are limiting the upside. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation as open interest declined 3.57% to 3,345 contracts while prices fell Rs 2.95. Support is placed at Rs 344.4, followed by Rs 343.1, while resistance is seen at Rs 347.6. A sustained move above Rs 347.6 could lead to a test of Rs 349.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 343.1-349.5.

* Aluminium dropped amid expectations of production restarts in the Middle East, and suppliers have turned to alternative shipping routes

* A trade deal still under negotiation would halve US top-line tariff rates on imports of the light metal from Canada, to 25%.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 201,000 metric tons at the end of July, down 8.8% from the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.99% higher at Rs 21,684, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns that El Nino could affect the crop currently being sown. Lower-than-expected sowing expansion in some key growing regions and deficient rainfall raised concerns over overall production, while continued dry conditions during early crop development could adversely affect yields. Turmeric acreage is nevertheless expected to increase 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, which could limit the upside if weather conditions remain favorable. Monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka improved in mid-July, while higher reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh improved water availability and reduced immediate crop failure concerns. Recent rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions is expected to accelerate sowing and improve crop prospects, although the distribution and consistency of rainfall remain crucial amid El Nino concerns. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, keeping the overall supply buffer tight. However, increased farmer selling during the peak harvest window and expectations of higher acreage may create near-term pressure. EU Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting premium-quality stocks. Export demand remains encouraging, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. Strong growth was recorded in China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, indicating broad-based international demand. Nizamabad spot prices also gained 1.44% to Rs 20,383.7. Overall, tight carry-forward stocks and strong exports support prices, while improved rainfall, higher acreage expectations and farmer selling could limit the upside. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 0.84% to 35,945 contracts while prices gained Rs 424. Support is placed at Rs 21,392, followed by Rs 21,098, while resistance is seen at Rs 21,898. A sustained move above Rs 21,898 could lead to a test of Rs 22,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21098-22110.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20383.7 Rupees gained by 1.44 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.22% higher at Rs 20,815, supported by rapid tightening in supplies of premium-quality bold seeds as arrivals across major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan began to taper. Although total physical availability remains relatively stable, export-grade high-purity seed supplies are declining faster than expected, while blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and harvestable volumes. European and North American buyers have returned to the market for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing selective support. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while domestic processors and stockists remain cautious and prefer hand-to-mouth purchasing rather than aggressive forward coverage. Farmers are also actively liquidating stocks to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating market arrivals. NCDEX warehouse stocks have increased steadily, reducing urgency among spot buyers, and large industrial spice grinders are delaying bulk purchases in anticipation of lower prices. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums, while buyers are increasingly sourcing cumin from Egypt and China. Current estimates indicate India’s cumin production may decline to 90-92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China’s production is estimated at 70-80 thousand tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan may produce around 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. Export demand remains weak, with India’s jeera exports declining 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Strong growth in exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina was insufficient to offset the broader decline. Unjha spot prices gained 0.11% to Rs 20,594.35. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.22% to 9,417 contracts while prices gained Rs 45. Support is placed at Rs 20,760, followed by Rs 20,700, while resistance is seen at Rs 20,890. A sustained move above Rs 20,890 could lead to a test of Rs 20,960.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20700-20960.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20594.35 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views