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Gold

Gold prices rallied sharply, settling 2.91% higher at 148,493, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay further monetary tightening. A sharp decline in crude oil prices reduced inflation concerns, while reports that Iran is considering European assistance to clear mines from key shipping routes and continued discussions with Oman over maritime security improved overall market sentiment. Saudi Arabia's diplomatic efforts to contain regional tensions also contributed to the improved risk environment. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained near a six-week low as traders reduced expectations of a September Fed rate hike despite Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid reiterating that inflation remains above the central bank's target. Investors now await the upcoming U.S. jobs report for additional guidance on the Fed's policy direction. Physical gold demand remained mixed across major consuming regions. Indian buying stayed subdued as consumers awaited clearer price direction, although discounts narrowed to as much as $44 per ounce from $56 previously. In China, stronger yuan support lifted bullion premiums to $5-$8 per ounce, reflecting improved demand. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes by the end of June, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. The World Gold Council reported that India's June-quarter gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes, while demand slipped 6% to 131.4 tonnes as weaker jewellery purchases outweighed investment demand. Globally, second-quarter gold demand remained stable as strong central bank buying offset ETF outflows. Technically, gold remains firmly bullish after fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 6.17%. Immediate support is placed at 145,910, followed by 143,320, while resistance is seen at 149,990. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards 151,480.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 143320-151480.

* Gold prices surged as a sharp fall in oil prices helped ease concerns around inflation and interest rates.

* Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said that talks with Oman on securing safe shipping routes continue "positively."

* Saudi Arabia reportedly said it intends to contain a renewed conflict with Houthi militants through behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

Silver

Silver prices advanced strongly, settling 2.69% higher at 227,584, supported by continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and easing expectations of an immediate U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike. The dollar hovered near a six-week low as traders reduced the probability of a September rate increase following encouraging diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were constructive, raising hopes of a possible resolution to the prolonged conflict and easing inflation concerns linked to energy markets. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams maintained that inflation is expected to moderate gradually but emphasized that the Federal Reserve remains prepared to tighten policy further if inflation fails to cool. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for a September rate hike declined to 59% from 67% a day earlier, providing additional support to precious metals. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed outlook for the silver market. Silver holdings in London vaults increased by 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June, valued at approximately $53.1 billion, indicating healthy institutional inventories. In contrast, India's silver imports dropped sharply after the government tightened import restrictions and increased duties. Imports fell 87% in value terms and 94% in volume to just 33 metric tonnes in May, the lowest level since February 2023. The government also expanded restrictions to include silver grain and powder while maintaining higher import duties of 15% to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Technically, silver witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 6.4% while prices strengthened significantly. Immediate support is placed at 224,250, followed by 220,920, while resistance is seen at 229,905. A sustained breakout above this level could drive prices towards 232,230.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 220920-232230.

* Silver rose as U.S. dollar hovered near a six-week low as traders scaled back their expectations for a September interest rate hike.

* Support seen as hopes of a ‌U.S.-Iran peace deal tempered some inflation concerns.

* Fed’s Williams said he remained optimistic that inflation pressures are on track to ease gradually.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined 1.46% to settle at 7,109 as optimism surrounding a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz outweighed fresh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although Yemen's Houthi forces claimed an attack on a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea, investors focused on reports that the United States, Iran, and Oman are nearing a 60-day interim agreement to restore shipping through the strategic waterway without tolls. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that negotiations with Iran were progressing positively, while Qatar confirmed that an interim proposal had been drafted. Reports also indicated that Iran may allow European countries to assist in clearing mines from the Strait, while Saudi Arabia continued diplomatic efforts with Yemen's Houthis through Omani mediation to avoid further escalation. Fundamental data presented a mixed outlook for the oil market. Goldman Sachs maintained its expectation that Brent crude will likely trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until either a formal U.S.-Iran agreement is reached or regional tensions intensify. U.S. crude production declined about 2% in May to 13.71 million barrels per day, while exports climbed to a record 5.73 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month. However, weekly inventory data remained bearish as U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 2.479 million barrels against expectations of a draw, while refinery runs declined. Gasoline and distillate inventories both posted larger-than-expected declines, reflecting resilient fuel demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved a production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the rollback of an earlier voluntary production cut. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure with open interest rising 11.86%, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 7,021, followed by 6,934, while resistance is seen at 7,252. A sustained move above this level could open the path towards 7,396.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6934-7396.

* Crude oil dropped as investors grew increasingly optimistic that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could soon be reached.

* As per reports, the US, Iran and Oman are close to a 60-day interim agreement to reopen the waterway without tolls.

* Saudi Arabia reportedly held talks with Yemen's Houthi movement through Omani mediators in an effort to prevent the conflict from escalating.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged 0.31% higher to settle at 256.7, recovering through short covering after recent declines driven by expectations of weaker seasonal demand and milder weather conditions. Weather forecasts continue to indicate below-normal cooling demand across much of the United States in the coming weeks, limiting the need for increased natural gas consumption. At the same time, improving prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased broader energy market concerns, reducing bullish sentiment across the energy complex. Despite the modest recovery, the market remains under pressure from record production levels and comfortable inventory conditions. Fundamental indicators continue to highlight abundant supply. U.S. Lower 48 dry gas production averaged a record 110.7 billion cubic feet per day during July, while gas flows to major LNG export facilities softened due to maintenance-related disruptions. The Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 28 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 24, below market expectations of a 35 billion cubic feet build. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.084 trillion cubic feet, standing 1% below last year's level but 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating comfortable supply availability. The EIA also maintained a constructive long-term outlook, forecasting U.S. dry gas production to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027. Domestic consumption and LNG exports are also projected to reach record highs over the same period. Technically, natural gas witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 2.46% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at 254.3, followed by 251.9, while resistance is seen at 258.9. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 261.1 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 251.9-261.1.

* Natural gas gains on short covering after prices dropped on expectations for weaker demand and milder weather.

* Upside was capped amid  record production levels and ample inventories, with storage volumes remaining above the five-year average

* US Lower 48 gas production averaged a record 110.7 billion cubic feet per day in July, while flows to major LNG export facilities declined.

Copper

Copper prices gained 0.64% to settle at 1,373.8, supported by tightening exchange inventories and expectations of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports. Continued withdrawals from London Metal Exchange warehouses reduced total inventories to 231,825 tonnes, the lowest level since mid-February, while available stocks declined to 94,125 tonnes, the lowest since mid-January. Tight nearby supply conditions were further reflected in the LME cash premium over the three-month contract, which climbed to $117.5 per tonne, the highest level since October. Meanwhile, COMEX copper continued to trade at a premium to the LME benchmark as traders increased shipments into the United States ahead of a possible tariff announcement, with COMEX inventories expanding by 45,000 tonnes during July. Supply-side developments remained supportive despite mixed global fundamentals. Chile's state-owned producer Codelco paused an expansion project at its flagship El Teniente mine after updated studies identified higher seismic risks. Glencore reported first-half copper production of 397,000 tonnes, up 15% year-on-year, while First Quantum Minerals increased its Zambia copper output by 5% during the same period. In China, shortages of copper concentrate and scrap continued to tighten raw material availability, supporting treatment charges and market spreads. However, weaker manufacturing activity and the absence of additional broad-based economic stimulus from Chinese policymakers tempered demand expectations. The International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, reversing April's deficit, while China's refined copper imports rose to a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, reflecting resilient domestic demand. Technically, copper witnessed short covering as open interest declined 0.93% while prices strengthened. Immediate support is placed at 1,364.6, followed by 1,355.4, while resistance is seen at 1,378.9. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 1,384 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1355.4-1384.

* Copper gains supported by falling inventories in LME as more metal was pulled into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper.

* Signalling tightening conditions for near-term supply, the premium of the LME cash copper contract over 3M was last at $117.5 a ton, the highest level since October.

* Chile's Codelco paused one of its expansion projects at its flagship El Teniente mine a year after a deadly collapse.

Zinc

Zinc prices advanced 1.21% to settle at 392.15, supported by tightening nearby supply conditions and continued concerns over disruptions to production in China. The market gained strength as available zinc inventories on the London Metal Exchange declined to 73,825 tonnes, the lowest level since December, resulting in a steep backwardation across nearby contracts. The LME cash contract continued to trade at a significant premium over the three-month contract, highlighting tight prompt availability despite some easing from last week's elevated levels. Additional support came from heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China, raising concerns about interruptions to mining, smelting operations, and transportation. Improved geopolitical sentiment also contributed after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled continued diplomatic efforts with Iran instead of pursuing further military action. Fundamental developments reflected a mixed supply outlook. A mine in southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes during August, while a central China smelter plans routine maintenance that could lower refined output by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. However, China's refined zinc production remained robust, with May output rising 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes, while zinc inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased marginally. Among major producers, Glencore reported a 21% decline in first-half own-sourced zinc production, while Boliden and MMG also recorded lower output. In contrast, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Meanwhile, the global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April. Technically, zinc remains under fresh buying interest with open interest rising 9.43%, indicating new long positions. Immediate support is placed at 389.4, followed by 386.5, while resistance is seen at 393.8. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward 395.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 386.5-395.3.

* Zinc rose as LME available zinc stocks at 73,825 tons, the lowest since December.

* Support also seen as heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China raised concerns over potential disruptions to mining, smelting operations.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged 0.41% higher to settle at 346.2, supported by tightening global supply conditions and concerns over potential production disruptions. The market drew strength from a 6.7% year-on-year decline in aluminium output outside China during July, largely due to lower operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. Additional support came as heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province, a major aluminium-producing region, raised concerns over possible disruptions to smelter operations, hydropower generation, and transportation. Meanwhile, stocks in LME-registered warehouses declined further to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, highlighting persistent tightness in exchange inventories. Fundamental developments remained mixed as supply constraints were balanced by improving production prospects elsewhere. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery caused by Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues. However, expectations of recovering Middle Eastern production, including the restart of Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah alumina refinery, limited further upside. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in June, while Gulf output dropped sharply by one-third. Japan's aluminium inventories also fell 7.8% month-on-month, reflecting tighter regional availability. On the other hand, China's primary aluminium production increased 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million tonnes in June, while unwrought aluminium and product exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes, up 12.5% from May, highlighting strong overseas shipments despite elevated export tariffs on primary metal. Technically, aluminium witnessed short covering with open interest declining 2.45% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at 343.5, followed by 340.8, while resistance is seen at 347.8. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards 349.4, maintaining a constructive near-term trading outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 340.8-349.4.

* Aluminium gains amid ongoing supply constraints and slower production.

* Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters.

* Stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell further to 267,800, the lowest level seen this century.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 0.57% to settle at 22,680, supported by tight spot supplies and continued concerns over the impact of El Niño on the ongoing sowing season. The market remained firm as lower carry-forward stocks and deficient rainfall during the early crop development stage raised fears of potential yield losses. Market participants also noted that available inventories have declined significantly over the past few years, resulting in a hand-to-mouth supply situation that continues to underpin prices. However, improving rainfall across major producing regions over the past week has eased some immediate concerns, limiting further upside as traders assess the prospects for better crop development. Fundamental indicators present a balanced outlook. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, remaining well above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, supported by attractive prices that encourage higher sowing. The pace of planting will largely depend on the consistency of monsoon rainfall, particularly if El Niño affects weather patterns later in the season. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reflecting tighter overall availability despite steady stockist activity. Export demand remains supportive, with India's turmeric exports easing only 1% year-on-year in May to 18,960 tonnes, while cumulative April-May shipments remained broadly stable. Strong export growth to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy helped offset weakness in other destinations, reflecting healthy international demand. Meanwhile, spot prices in Nizamabad eased marginally by 0.12%. Technically, turmeric remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing 0.53% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at 22,326, followed by 21,972, while resistance is seen at 22,962. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 23,244, maintaining a positive near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21972-23244.

* Turmeric prices gained amid fears of El Nino impact the crop that is currently being sown.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21116.55 Rupees dropped by -0.12 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.36% to settle at 21,010 as increased farmer selling and improved market arrivals weighed on sentiment. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities, while favorable weather across northwestern India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating arrivals into physical markets. Rising inventories in NCDEX warehouses also reduced the urgency for spot purchases, with major spice processors and traders adopting a cautious approach and waiting for prices to stabilize before making bulk purchases. Improved production prospects in competing origins such as Turkey and Syria further pressured Indian export premiums. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality bold jeera seeds. Export-grade supplies have reduced more rapidly than expected, while daily arrivals in major trading centers such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline. Demand from Europe and North America has improved for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, although buying from China has remained inconsistent and highly price-sensitive. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East have also continued to affect export logistics and demand from traditional buyers. Crop quality has been impacted in some Gujarat regions due to blight disease, reducing the availability of superior-grade produce. Current estimates suggest India's jeera production may decline to around 90-92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year. Meanwhile, India's jeera exports fell 26% year-on-year in May to 17,177 tonnes, while cumulative April-May exports declined 22%, although shipments to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland registered notable growth. Spot prices at Unjha also eased marginally. Technically, jeera witnessed long liquidation as open interest declined 2.03% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at 20,920, followed by 20,830, while resistance is seen at 21,130. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 21,250 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20830-21250.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20848.7 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.

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