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Gold 

Gold prices rose 0.62% to settle at Rs.148,118, supported by a decline in Brent crude oil prices following encouraging progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Senior officials from both countries concluded their first round of talks in Switzerland, with reports indicating constructive developments and a continuation of the ceasefire framework established earlier. However, gains in bullion remained limited as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish tone on monetary policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated concerns about inflation, strengthening market expectations of a rate hike later this year, with traders now assigning an 89% probability of a December increase. On the demand side, Goldman Sachs revised its year-end gold price forecast lower to $4,900 per ounce from $5,400, citing near-term downside risks despite maintaining a positive long-term outlook. Physical demand remained weak across major consuming regions. India's gold imports plunged nearly 70% after import duties were raised to 15%, while Swiss gold exports to India dropped sharply to their lowest monthly level in six years. Domestic jewellery, bar, and coin demand in India stayed subdued despite recent price corrections. India's physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly outflow in a year during May as investors booked profits. Globally, gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by Asia and North America, though year-to-date flows remain positive. In China, physical gold premiums turned into discounts, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran agreement. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.66% to 9,286 contracts while prices advanced. Gold has immediate support at Rs.145,740, followed by Rs.143,365. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.149,860, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.151,605.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 143365-151605.

*  Gold rebounded supported by a drop in Brent crude oil prices on positive progress in U.S.-Iran talks.

*  Russia's gold reserves stood at 73.7 million troy ounces, down by 0.27% as of the start of June.

*  Swiss gold exports drop 9% in May as deliveries to India fall

Silver

Silver prices ended higher by 0.48% at Rs.234,310, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in crude oil prices. Market sentiment improved after reports indicated that the United States and Iran had agreed on a framework aimed at reaching a final peace agreement within the next 60 days. The development helped reduce concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly after recent tensions surrounding Lebanon and Iran’s claims regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these concerns, crude shipments through the strategic waterway continued uninterrupted, while major Gulf producers prepared to raise output levels. Investors also remained focused on the upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, policymakers maintained a hawkish outlook, with nine of nineteen officials projecting at least one rate increase this year and markets increasingly pricing in a possible hike as early as September. Fundamental data reflected mixed trends for the silver market. Silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes at the end of May, equivalent to approximately 920,378 silver bars. Meanwhile, India’s silver imports dropped sharply after the government tightened import restrictions and raised import duties on precious metals to 15% from 6%. Imports fell 87% in value terms year-on-year to $75.57 million and declined 94% in volume terms to just 33 metric tons, marking the lowest level since February 2023. The measures were introduced to curb precious metal imports and reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 8.42% to 9,864 contracts while prices moved higher. Silver has immediate support at Rs.232,565, followed by Rs.230,825. Resistance is seen at Rs.237,375, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further upside toward Rs.240,445.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 230825-240445.

* Silver climbed as oil prices fell following reports that US and Iran had agreed on a roadmap toward a final peace deal.

* Traders see 89% chance of U.S. rate hike in December

* Investors also looked ahead to this week’s release of the US PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 3.84% to settle at Rs.6,983 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions. Market sentiment improved after progress was reported in negotiations between the United States and Iran, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that talks held in Switzerland had achieved significant progress toward regional stability. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan indicated that both sides had agreed on a 60-day roadmap aimed at reaching a broader agreement, while technical discussions and monitoring mechanisms continue. The continued movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and reports of rising Iranian crude exports, particularly discounted shipments to China, further eased fears regarding global oil supply. Fundamental data presented a mixed picture for the market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that total U.S. crude inventories fell to 758.5 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1985. Commercial crude oil stocks declined by 8.262 million barrels to 418.2 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 4.6 million-barrel draw. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also dropped by 1.606 million barrels. Refinery activity improved, with crude runs increasing by 230,000 barrels per day and utilization rates rising by 1.4 percentage points. Gasoline inventories fell by 0.906 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 0.951 million barrels. Net crude imports declined by 241,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, Iraq boosted southern crude production by approximately 500,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million bpd, helping offset supply concerns. OPEC output in May remained historically low due to disruptions affecting Iran and other Gulf producers. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 38.34% to 12,278 contracts while prices declined sharply. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs.6,834, followed by Rs.6,685. Resistance is placed at Rs.7,257, and a move above this level could open the path toward Rs.7,531.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6685-7531.

* Crude oil fell as easing geopolitical tensions and progress in US-Iran negotiations supported recovery in supply flows.

* Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks in Switzerland had made “major progress” toward stabilising the wider regional situation.

* Mediators Qatar and Pakistan said both sides had agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a potential final agreement

Natural gas

Natural gas prices advanced 2.62% to settle at Rs.310, supported by a slightly smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. storage inventories and expectations of stronger weather-related demand. Market sentiment improved after data showed that U.S. utilities injected 73 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 12, marginally below market expectations of a 75 bcf build. The storage increase was also significantly lower than the 97 bcf injection recorded during the same period last year and marked a slowdown from the previous week's 108 bcf build. The data reinforced expectations of a tighter supply-demand balance heading into the peak summer cooling season. Total natural gas inventories rose to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, standing about 1% below year-ago levels while remaining 5.8% above the five-year average. Weather forecasts calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures through early July are expected to boost electricity demand for air conditioning, thereby increasing natural gas consumption by power generators. On the supply side, U.S. Lower 48 dry gas production has moderated slightly, averaging 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June compared with 109.7 bcfd in May. Meanwhile, gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export terminals remained steady at 17.1 bcfd, reflecting stable export demand despite ongoing maintenance activities at certain facilities. Longer-term fundamentals remain constructive. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects both natural gas production and demand to reach record highs over the next two years. Dry gas production is forecast to increase from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to rise from 91.9 bcfd to 92.1 bcfd. LNG exports are projected to expand further, reaching 17.2 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 4.48% to 13,546 contracts while prices moved higher. Natural gas has immediate support at Rs.305.6, followed by Rs.301.3. Resistance is seen at Rs.315.1, and a breakout above this level could lead to further gains toward Rs.320.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 301.3-320.3.

* Natural gas prices rose after report showed a slightly smaller-than-expected increase in storage.

* US energy companies added 73 bcf of gas to inventories in the week ended June 12, below forecasts for a 75 bcf build.

* Total stockpiles climbed to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, around 1% below last year’s level but 5.8% above the five-year average.

Copper 

Copper prices ended 0.44% higher at Rs.1,315.3, supported by easing energy costs and improving prospects for global manufacturing demand. The decline in crude oil prices followed encouraging developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with both sides signaling progress toward restoring trade and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy costs are expected to improve margins for manufacturers and support industrial activity, which is positive for copper demand. Additionally, improved financing conditions have strengthened expectations for continued investment in data centers, a rapidly growing source of copper consumption. According to BHP, a single data center can require between 5,000 and 50,000 tons of copper, highlighting the metal’s strategic importance in digital infrastructure expansion. Market gains were partly capped by improving supply prospects. Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, while expectations of increased sulfuric acid availability could support refining activity. However, concerns regarding long-term mine supply continue to underpin prices. Jefferies forecasts an average annual copper supply deficit of 491,000 tons through 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised their copper price forecasts due to tighter mine supply and stronger import demand. Goldman Sachs expects deficits outside the U.S. to remain significant through 2027 and raised its end-2026 price forecast to $13,735 per ton. Inventory data remained supportive. Copper stocks in SHFE warehouses declined 23.6% last week, while inventories in LME warehouses continued to fall, with cancelled warrants reaching 37% of total stocks, indicating strong withdrawal demand. China's copper demand also remained robust, supported by a 37% rise in power grid investment and a recovery in unwrought copper imports. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 17.79% to 10,335 contracts while prices moved higher. Copper has immediate support at Rs.1,309.3, followed by Rs.1,303.2. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,321.2, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.1,327.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1303.2-1327.

* Copper gains as the pullback in energy prices improved the outlook for broad manufacturing demand.

* Iran stated that start of discussions with the US were promising to follow up on their memorandum of understanding signed in the previous week.

* Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.

Zinc

Zinc prices advanced 0.97% to settle at Rs.370.05, supported by optimism surrounding initial U.S.-Iran negotiations and persistent concerns over global supply disruptions. Market sentiment improved after U.S. and Iranian officials reported encouraging progress and agreed on a 60-day roadmap aimed at reducing regional tensions. While uncertainty remains regarding Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, hopes for a diplomatic resolution helped support broader industrial metals demand. Zinc also benefited from tight near-term supply conditions, as disruptions across several key mining and smelting operations reinforced concerns about refined metal availability. Supply-side challenges remain a major driver for the market. Goldman Sachs highlighted that production at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine in Sweden may remain below previous levels following a seismic event earlier this year. In Peru, Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter, the largest in Latin America, after a fire damaged critical infrastructure. Additionally, Glencore-owned Kazzinc continues to operate at reduced capacity following an explosion at its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan. These incidents have added to concerns in a market that the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) already expected to record a refined zinc deficit of 19,000 tons this year. Fundamental indicators remain mixed. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.2% from the previous week, reflecting tight spot availability. Meanwhile, the global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 tons in March. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus in 2026 due to rising mine supply, but forecasts tighter market conditions and potential deficits outside China during 2027 and 2028 as supply growth slows. Global zinc demand is projected to expand by around 2% annually through 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 11.65% to 1,698 contracts while prices moved higher. Zinc has immediate support at Rs.367.1, followed by Rs.364.1. Resistance is seen at Rs.372.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.374.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 364.1-374.3.

* Zinc gained boosted by optimism that initial U.S.-Iran talks could pave the way for a deal to end the war.

* Prices also gained supported by tight near-term supply conditions.

* U.S. and Iranian officials made “encouraging progress”, agreeing a 60-day roadmap towards ending the war.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 0.98% to settle at Rs.354.35, pressured by expectations of improving supply from the Middle East and easing concerns over global shortages. The market has retreated nearly 10% since early June, when geopolitical tensions and fears of supply disruptions had driven prices sharply higher. Sentiment weakened as prospects for increased shipments from the Middle East, which accounts for around 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity, improved following progress in regional diplomatic developments. This easing supply concern was reflected in the sharp decline in the premium of the LME cash contract over three-month futures, which fell from a 19-year high above $104 per ton in early June to around $10 per ton. Despite the recent correction, supply conditions remain relatively tight. Aluminium inventories in LME warehouses stand at 316,525 tons, the lowest level since September 2022. Additional support continues to come from operational disruptions at key producers. Norsk Hydro declared a second force majeure on aluminium sales linked to its Qatalum joint venture, while Emirates Global Aluminium’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity. Bahrain’s ALBA smelter also remains partially suspended, and Guinea’s tighter controls on bauxite exports continue to raise concerns over raw material availability. Furthermore, aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 10.8% month-on-month to 249,500 tons, indicating firm physical demand. However, gains remain capped by rising Chinese production and exports. China’s aluminium output increased 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million tons, marking the ninth consecutive monthly increase, while exports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 5.7% during the month. Imports also remained strong, reflecting active trade flows despite softer domestic economic indicators. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.97% to 1,814 contracts while prices moved lower. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs.352.1, followed by Rs.349.7. Resistance is seen at Rs.358.6, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.362.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 349.7-362.7.

* Aluminium come under pressure on expectations of rising shipments from the Middle East.

* Aluminium prices have dropped 10% since early June when fears about Middle East supplies and global shortages peaked.

* Rising output in China, the world’s largest producer, and increasing supply from smelters in Indonesia.

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices declined 0.55% to settle at Rs.16,776 as increased selling pressure from farmers during the peak harvest season weighed on market sentiment. Higher arrivals across major mandis have outpaced immediate buying demand, leading to short-term weakness in prices. Reports from key trading centers indicated substantial stock availability, with approximately 1.13 lakh bags held in Warangal as of May-end. Farmers who had earlier delayed sales in anticipation of higher prices have begun releasing stocks into the market, adding to supply pressure. In addition, quality concerns, including reports of rhizome rot and deterioration in some fresh arrivals, prompted sellers to accept lower prices to clear inventories. Demand conditions remained mixed. While cumulative export performance has been encouraging, fresh export orders from traditional markets such as Europe and the United States slowed during the week, resulting in cautious buying activity. However, demand support continues from Bangladesh, where procurement of finger-variety turmeric remains active, particularly in Andhra Pradesh mandis. Furthermore, increasing inquiries for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers are providing price support for premium-quality stocks. On the production front, the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon across southern India has improved prospects for the upcoming sowing season. Forecasts for above-normal rainfall in peninsular India are expected to encourage healthy acreage expansion during the 2026-27 season, particularly after the recent period of elevated prices. Although industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, the pace of stock depletion has slowed as some buyers shift to alternatives or wait for lower prices. Export data remained broadly stable, with shipments rising marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong growth in exports to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan helped offset declines in shipments to the UAE and the United States. In the spot market, Nizamabad prices ended at Rs.16,255.35 per quintal, up 0.22%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.49% to 24,915 contracts while prices declined. Turmeric has immediate support at ?16,658, followed by Rs.16,540. Resistance is seen at Rs.16,886, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs.16,996.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16540-16996.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16255.35 Rupees gained by 0.22 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices edged lower by 0.12% to settle at Rs.20,940 as traders booked profits after the recent rally driven by tightening supplies of premium-quality seeds. Although overall crop availability remains adequate, the supply of export-grade bold and high-purity cumin has tightened considerably. Arrivals in major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have declined as the peak post-harvest supply phase has passed, allowing stockists and warehouse operators to gain stronger control over market availability. Recent unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms in key producing regions affected stored produce, increasing moisture levels and reducing seed quality. This has widened the price gap between average-grade and premium export-quality jeera. Market sentiment remains supported by cautious selling from farmers and stockholders. Many growers in Gujarat are holding back quality stocks and releasing supplies gradually, creating temporary tightness in the spot market. Demand from domestic spice processors remains steady but largely limited to immediate requirements, with buyers avoiding aggressive forward purchases. Export demand has shown signs of improvement, particularly from European and North American buyers seeking residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Additionally, disease outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have affected both crop quality and output, further supporting sentiment. Expectations of renewed buying interest from China and lower production estimates in competing producing countries also remain supportive factors. Production estimates indicate India's cumin output may decline to 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced acreage and weather-related challenges. Meanwhile, India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, primarily due to a sharp drop in shipments to the UAE. However, exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, helping offset part of the decline. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.86% to 9,318 contracts while prices moved lower. Jeera has immediate support at Rs.20,730, followed by Rs.20,520. Resistance is seen at Rs.21,150, and a move above this level could extend gains toward Rs.21,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20520-21360.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20992.15 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views