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Gold

Gold prices posted a sharp rally, settling higher by 2.28% at 156,341, supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainties, a softer U.S. dollar, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Although gains were capped after U.S. President Donald Trump eased his stance on Greenland and retreated from proposed tariff threats against Europe, underlying safe-haven demand remained intact. Lingering uncertainty around the EU–US trade agreement, coupled with a selloff in Japanese government bonds driven by fiscal concerns, continued to underpin investor interest in gold. Fundamentally, the medium- to long-term outlook for bullion remains constructive. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, highlighting sustained private-sector diversification into gold. Other global banks echoed the bullish bias, with Commerzbank, HSBC, and UBS projecting gold prices in the $4,800–$5,000 range through 2026 amid geopolitical risks, rising global debt, and pressure on the U.S. dollar. Central bank demand remained a key pillar, led by continued purchases from China and Poland, while gold holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tons. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined by 6.49% to 11,402 while prices surged by Rs 3,479. Gold is supported at 151,055; a break below could test 145,760. On the upside, resistance is seen at 159,365, with a move above opening the path toward 162,380.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 145760-162380.

* Gold rallied powered by ‌ongoing geopolitical tensions, a softer U.S. dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

* Initial jobless claims in the US inched higher by 1,000 from the previous week to 200,000.

* Goldman Sachs raises Dec 2026 gold price forecast by $500 to $5,400/oz

Silver

Silver prices extended gains, settling higher by 2.76% at 327,289, supported by lingering geopolitical risks, a weaker U.S. dollar, and spillover strength from gold. However, upside was partially tempered after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from proposed tariff threats against Europe and announced a framework agreement with NATO on Greenland, easing immediate trade-related tensions and reducing some safe-haven appeal. Macroeconomic data from the U.S. remained supportive but mixed for precious metals. The U.S. economy grew at a robust annualized pace of 4.4% in Q3 2025, the strongest since Q3 2023, driven by solid consumer spending, stronger exports, and higher government outlays. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims edged up marginally to 200,000, remaining well below expectations and indicating continued labor market resilience. From a fundamentals perspective, global banks retain a constructive medium-term view on silver. Commerzbank projects silver at $95/oz by end-2026, while HSBC sharply raised its 2026 forecast to $68.25/oz, citing a weaker dollar, mild supply-demand deficits, and sustained institutional investment demand. Supply-side risks persist as Chinese inventories have fallen to decade lows, with large volumes shipped to London, keeping global liquidity tight despite rising vault holdings. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 0.35% to 9,745 while prices surged by Rs 8,797. Silver is supported at 310,640; a break below could test 293,995. On the upside, resistance is seen at 337,330, with a move above opening the door toward 347,375.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 293995-347375.

* Silver gains supported by lingering geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar.

* Trump said he would step back from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his effort to take possession of Greenland.

* The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.4% in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3%.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply, settling lower by 2.32% at 5,440, as markets reacted to easing geopolitical tensions and a heavy focus on supply–demand fundamentals. Sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump softened his stance on Greenland and Iran, reducing immediate geopolitical risk premiums. On the supply side, Kazakhstan temporarily halted production at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields due to power distribution issues, though this was outweighed by concerns over rising inventories. U.S. inventory data remained bearish. According to API estimates, crude stocks rose by 3.04 million barrels for the week ended January 16, while gasoline inventories surged by 6.21 million barrels. Distillate stocks saw a marginal decline. Separately, official data showed U.S. crude inventories climbing to 422.4 million barrels, the highest in two months, alongside a sharp build in gasoline stocks, reinforcing oversupply concerns. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports stayed strong, with December volumes up 17% year-on-year and 2025 imports rising 4.4%, providing some demand-side support. From a forward-looking perspective, the IEA marginally raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast while trimming supply growth estimates, suggesting a slightly narrower surplus. However, both the IEA and OPEC continue to project a sizable supply overhang into 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.49% to 14,671 as prices fell by Rs 129. Crude oil is supported at 5,374; a break below could test 5,309. Resistance is seen at 5,552, with a move above opening the upside toward 5,665.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5309-5665.

* Crude oil fell after Trump softened threats against Greenland and Iran.

* IEA revises up forecasts for 2026 global oil demand growth

* US crude stocks up by 3.04 million barrels last week, API says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices moved higher, settling up by 1.81% at 326.4, supported by expectations that extreme cold weather will sharply lift heating demand while also curbing production due to freeze-offs at oil and gas wells. Weather forecasts indicate temperatures will remain mostly below normal through February 5, with the coldest stretch expected between January 24 and 27, reinforcing near-term demand optimism. On the supply side, U.S. output has shown signs of softening. According to LSEG, average Lower-48 gas production has eased to 108.7 bcfd so far in January from a record 109.7 bcfd in December. Daily output is projected to slip to a three-month low of around 106.2 bcfd, largely due to declines in North Dakota and Arkansas. However, storage data remains a mixed influence. U.S. utilities withdrew just 71 bcf from storage in the week ended January 9, well below expectations and far smaller than last year’s draw, leaving inventories at 3.185 tcf, above both year-ago and five-year average levels. Longer term, the EIA expects U.S. gas production to rise to record highs in 2026–27, while domestic consumption eases, partially offset by rising LNG exports. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest plunging 22.09% to 12,489 as prices rose Rs 5.8. Natural gas finds support at 317; a break below could test 307.5. Resistance is seen at 338.5, with a move above opening upside toward 350.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 307.5-350.5.

* Natural gas soared as extreme cold forecasts boosted demand expectations and raised supply risks.

* Temperatures are projected to remain mostly below normal through February 5, with the coldest period expected around January 24 to 27.

* Average gas output has slid to 108.7 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Copper

Copper prices eased, settling lower by 0.53% at 1,273.05, as near-term demand concerns briefly outweighed ongoing supply tightness. Sentiment softened after the Yangshan import premium more than halved, reflecting weaker buying interest from Chinese manufacturers as record-high base metal prices squeezed margins. Prices also corrected after the U.S. deferred tariffs on critical minerals and China intensified its crackdown on high-frequency trading, reducing speculative activity in commodity markets. Despite the pullback, underlying supply dynamics remain constrained. Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 18.3% week-on-week, while China exported 96,000 tons of refined copper in December, still sharply higher than a year ago. On the supply front, production challenges persist across key mining regions. Peru’s copper output fell 11.2% year-on-year in November, while Chile’s state miner Codelco reported a 3% decline and output at BHP’s Escondida mine dropped 12.8%. Meanwhile, LME on-warrant copper stocks fell 22% to a six-month low as large volumes were earmarked for withdrawal, highlighting tight availability outside the U.S. In contrast, Comex copper inventories surged to record highs, driven by tariff-related arbitrage flows. From a macro perspective, the global refined copper market remains in surplus, with the ICSG reporting a 94,000-ton surplus in November. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 14.57% to 9,818 as prices fell Rs 6.8. Copper is supported at 1,253.4; a break below could test 1,233.7. Resistance is seen at 1,290.4, with a move above opening upside toward 1,307.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1233.7-1307.7.

* Copper prices dropped as signs of softening demand momentarily outweighed lingering concerns of tight supply.

* Global refined copper market showed a 94,000 metric tons surplus in November, compared with a 48,000 metric tons surplus in October – ICSG

* Copper stocks on the U.S. Comex exchange have risen to over 500,000 metric tons for the first time.

Zinc

Zinc prices ended marginally higher, settling up by 0.02% at 311.95, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and better-than-expected economic data from China. Market sentiment also improved after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out using military force over Greenland and withdrew plans to impose tariffs on European allies, helping to calm broader risk perceptions. On the data front, China’s industrial output rose 5.2% year-on-year in December, beating expectations and accelerating from November, while fourth-quarter GDP growth also came in slightly above forecasts. These indicators offered near-term support to base metals. At the same time, supply-side signals were mixed. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses increased by 3.3% week-on-week, while the LME cash zinc contract traded at a $14 per ton discount to the three-month forward, indicating comfortable near-term supply. Looking ahead, concentrate availability could tighten as several Chinese mines are scheduled for routine maintenance, including a southwest China operation expected to cut output by around 700 tons of metal content. From a global perspective, the ILZSG reported the zinc market slipped into a 7,700-ton deficit in November, although the refined market still showed a surplus over the first 11 months of 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 15.38% to 1,441 as prices edged up. Zinc finds support at 309.5; a break below could test 307.1. Resistance is seen at 313.9, with a move above opening upside toward 315.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 307.1-315.9.

* Zinc gains on a weaker dollar and after data from China came in better than expected.

* Global zinc market deficit rose to 7,700 metric tons in November from 2,800 tons in October – ILZSG

* Investors were encouraged by data showing China's industrial output rose 5.2% in December from a year earlier

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged marginally higher, settling up by 0.05% at 315.2, as investors reassessed expectations around tightening supply and resilient global demand. Sentiment was supported by signs of economic stabilization in China after Beijing reiterated its commitment to supportive policies. China’s central bank signaled that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026, maintaining ample liquidity and an appropriately loose monetary stance. On the supply side, inventory trends remained mixed. LME aluminium stocks rose to 509,300 metric tons, up 0.41% on the day and nearly 4% over the past week, though still down about 2% on a monthly basis. SHFE aluminium warrants also edged higher, with a sharp increase seen over the past month. Inventories at major Japanese ports increased 1.5% month-on-month, while SHFE-monitored warehouse stocks jumped over 29% week-on-week, indicating near-term supply availability. Fundamentally, global output remains firm. The IAI reported global primary aluminium production rose 0.5% year-on-year in December, while China’s December output increased 3.0%. However, downside appears limited as the global primary aluminium market remained in deficit, with a supply shortfall of 108,700 tons in October and a cumulative deficit of 955,500 tons over the first ten months. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 18.88% to 1,414 as prices rose marginally. Aluminium finds support at 312.7; a break below could test 310.1. Resistance is seen at 317.3, with a move above opening upside toward 319.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 310.1-319.3.

* Aluminium gains as investors reassessed expectations around tightening supply and robust global demand.

* Support also seen as investor optimism reflects early signs of economic stabilization after Beijing’s support for key sectors.

* LME aluminum inventory recorded 509,300 mt, an increase of 2,100 mt from the previous day, up 0.41%.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices closed lower on Wednesday, with the February contract settling down by 0.52% at Rs 17,854, primarily pressured by expectations of higher acreage amid favourable monsoon conditions during the current sowing season. For the 2026 harvest, India’s turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is estimated at around 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, overall supply growth remains moderate due to weather irregularities, disease pressure and sharply lower carry-forward stocks. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September caused waterlogging and disease issues across nearly 15% of the area in parts of Marathwada, resulting in 15–20% yield losses in affected pockets. Despite this, higher acreage is expected to lift Maharashtra’s dried turmeric production to about 54 lakh bags. Other producing states together may contribute nearly 40 lakh bags. Downside in prices appears limited as arrivals remain below normal, farmers and stockists have reduced inventories, and both domestic and export demand remain firm. Exports during Apr–Nov 2025 rose 4.88% year-on-year, while imports fell sharply by over 44%. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices eased marginally to Rs 16,805.5. On the technical front, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.97% alongside a Rs 94 decline in prices. Support is seen at Rs 17,652; a break below could test Rs 17,450. Resistance is placed at Rs 18,028, with further upside towards Rs 18,202 on a sustained breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17450-18202.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16805.5 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged lower on Wednesday, with the futures contract settling down by 0.24% at Rs 24,810, weighed by comfortable near-term supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks. Traders attributed the mild decline to the end of the retail season and continued inactivity from overseas buyers, with current export commitments largely being met from available inventories. In the Unjha spot market, prices also softened by 0.57% to Rs 23,551.95, reflecting subdued physical demand. However, downside remains limited due to supply-side concerns. Gujarat is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years as fields are not fully prepared, with jeera sowing reported at 3.98 lakh hectares, down 16.31% year-on-year. Low arrivals at Unjha and premium pricing for good-quality cumin continue to lend support. Weather and logistical issues in India and the Middle East are also keeping supplies tight, while geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan have curtailed output there. Domestic support is further aided by the GST cut to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG demand. For the current season, cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat and Rajasthan together contributing around 90–95 lakh bags. On the technical front, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.64% alongside a Rs 60 decline in prices. Support is seen at Rs 24,230; a break below may test Rs 23,650. Resistance is placed at Rs 25,260, with further upside towards Rs 25,710 if crossed.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23650-25710.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23551.95 Rupees dropped by -0.57 percent.

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