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Bullion – Spot gold slipped over 3.1% to settle at $3,981/ Oz, while silver dropped 3.6% to below $47, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions boosted risk appetite. Negotiators from both nations outlined a framework to delay higher U.S. tariffs and China’s rareearth export controls, ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting on Thursday. Gold also faced pressure after the PBoC paused its bullion purchases, with Hong Kong data showing a 17.6% MoM decline in September gold exports to China. ETF outflows further weighed on sentiment, with gold and silver holdings down 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively, from last week’s peaks. Today, gold trades steady above $3,988 as markets await key central bank meetings. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, while the ECB and BoJ may hold steady.

Crude Oil – WTI crude oil settled slightly lower at $61.30 per barrel on Monday as OPEC’s plans to boost output again outweighed optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade deal and renewed U.S. sanctions on Russia. Prices paused after last week’s sharp rally, with markets awaiting Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting aimed at finalizing key trade issues. According to Reuters, eight OPEC+ members are leaning toward a modest production hike for December, driven by Saudi Arabia’s push to regain market share. Iraq is negotiating its quota within its 5.5 million bpd capacity. Meanwhile, the IEA noted that global oil supply is likely to exceed demand as output from the “American quintet” — the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina — continues to rise. Today, oil trading steady above $61.30 supported by geopolitical developments but may be pressured by oversupply concerns.

Natural Gas – Nymex Henry Hub natural gas futures rose to $3.44/mmBtu, the biggest gain in a week, as colder early-November forecasts boosted demand expectations.

Base metals – Base metals opened the week on a firmer footing, with copper and zinc leading the advance across both the LME and MCX. Copper prices rallied past $11,000 per ton on the LME and breached ?1,000/kg on the MCX, buoyed by optimism over easing trade tensions between the US and China. Market sentiment improved after reports of constructive discussions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting this week, with Washington stepping back from fresh tariff threats and Beijing agreeing to delay its rare earth export expansion. Softer US inflation data further fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut, adding to the positive momentum. Base metals are expected to trade range-bound with a slight upside bias, supported by ongoing supply concerns, while investors await the US Fed’s policy outcome for further direction.

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