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Gold

Gold prices rebounded strongly, gaining 1.95% to settle at  Rs.153,708, supported by a weaker dollar and easing geopolitical concerns after Donald Trump indicated that the conflict with Iran could wind down within weeks. However, despite this optimism, elevated energy prices continue to keep inflation risks intact, leading markets to largely rule out any U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing that policymakers will assess the broader economic impact of the ongoing tensions. On the demand side, central banks continue to provide strong underlying support. China extended its gold-buying streak to 16 consecutive months, while Brazil significantly increased its holdings, highlighting sustained institutional interest. According to the World Gold Council, central bank demand remains elevated, although slightly moderating due to higher prices. Physical demand trends remain mixed, with India seeing mild improvement at lower prices, while Chinese premiums have narrowed, indicating softer buying interest. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.32% to 6,607 lots. Gold has immediate support at  Rs.151,680, with further downside seen at  Rs.149,660. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.155,110, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.156,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 144365-155145.

* Gold prices slid as the US dollar and oil prices surged following President Donald Trump’s vow to intensify attacks on Iran.

* President Trump declared that US forces had "nearly achieved" their objectives in Iran.

* The US economy added 178K jobs in March 2026, the most since December 2024, following a revised decline of 133K in February.

Silver

Silver prices moved higher, gaining 1.08% to settle at  Rs.243,501, supported by improving sentiment as hopes grow for a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. Donald Trump indicated that U.S. military involvement could wind down within a few weeks, while Iran also signaled willingness to end hostilities under certain conditions. This has helped stabilize market sentiment, though uncertainty still lingers. On the macro front, expectations remain that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through 2026, limiting strong upside in precious metals for now. Jerome Powell reiterated that long-term inflation expectations remain stable despite geopolitical risks. Recent U.S. economic data showed mixed signals, with stronger retail sales and modest job growth, keeping the broader outlook balanced. The near-term direction for silver will largely depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves and upcoming U.S. jobs data. From a supply perspective, silver holdings in London vaults declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes at the end of February, indicating some tightening in physical availability, which could offer underlying support to prices. Technically, the market is showing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising slightly by 0.03% to 5,784 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.240,010, with further downside toward  Rs.236,515. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.245,490, and a breakout could push prices toward  Rs.247,475.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 214965-251565.

* Silver prices dropped as the Middle East war rages on, fuelling concerns around inflation and a hawkish monetary policy response.

* Prices dropped due to rising expectations of hawkish monetary policy and as the dollar emerged as a safe-haven winner.

* Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices dropped sharply by 3.28% to settle at  Rs.9,253, as optimism around a possible de-escalation in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. Donald Trump suggested that U.S. forces could withdraw from Iran within a few weeks, raising hopes that the conflict may not drag on. However, the situation remains uncertain, with continued military activity and fresh attacks on energy infrastructure, including drone strikes near Kuwait, keeping markets on edge. On the supply side, inventory data added further pressure. U.S. crude stocks saw a significant build, rising by over 10 million barrels in the latest week, far exceeding expectations. Previous data also showed consistent inventory increases, indicating ample supply. At the same time, production dynamics remain mixed globally. Libya’s Sharara oilfield is expected to resume normal output soon, while Russian production has slightly declined, according to OPEC data. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, reported a recovery in output. Despite bearish inventory trends, underlying risks persist, with policymakers warning of potential price spikes if the conflict escalates again. Technically, the market is witnessing strong long liquidation, with open interest plunging 22.06% to 11,885 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.8,906, with further downside toward  Rs.8,560. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.9,721, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.10,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9207-11241.

* Crude oil gained as traders worried about prolonged disruptions to oil supply.

* Venezuela's oil exports surpassed 1 million bpd for the first in 6 months

* Brent crude prices could average $95 a barrel in the base case and $130 a barrel in the bull case in the second half of the year - CITI

Natural gas prices declined sharply by 3.24% to settle at  Rs.265.4, as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment. Donald Trump signaled that the U.S. could exit the Iran conflict within a few weeks, raising expectations that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz may gradually ease. Although a recovery in supply flows could take time, any de-escalation reduces immediate risk premiums in energy markets. At the same time, seasonal factors are adding pressure. The transition into the spring shoulder period typically lowers heating demand, and forecasts for above-average temperatures across the eastern U.S. are reinforcing expectations of weaker consumption. This is likely to accelerate inventory builds, with storage projected to shift from a small surplus in mid-March to a larger surplus by mid-April. Fundamentally, the supply outlook remains strong. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, natural gas production is expected to rise to record levels in the coming years, while demand is likely to soften slightly. Although LNG flows have been impacted by disruptions in key shipping routes, long-term export growth projections remain intact. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 21.21% to 32,497 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.260.9, with further downside toward  Rs.256.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.272.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.280.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 256.1-276.7.

* Natural gas edged down on expectations that mild weather would squeeze demand.

* A federal report showed energy companies injected slightly more gas than expected into storage, indicating weaker demand.

* Energy companies added 36 bcf of gas into stockpiles during the week ended March 27, the U.S. EIA.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher, gaining 0.47% to settle at  Rs.1,169.2, supported by improving sentiment as geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing. Both the U.S. and Iran hinted at a possible resolution to the conflict, raising hopes that energy flows from the Persian Gulf could normalize and reduce risks to global growth. A softer dollar also provided support, making dollar-denominated commodities like copper more attractive. However, the broader trend remains cautious, with copper still down around 10% for the year. Ample global supply continues to weigh on prices, with inventories at LME warehouses near multi-year highs and SHFE stocks also elevated, despite a recent decline in Chinese inventories. On the production side, Chile reported a nearly 5% year-on-year drop in output, reflecting ongoing operational and weather-related challenges. Market outlooks remain mixed. Some analysts expect prices to soften in the near term due to macro uncertainty, while others remain bullish, pointing to rising demand from infrastructure and energy transition projects alongside a widening supply deficit. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest dipping slightly by 0.34% to 9,127 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,162.4, with further downside toward  Rs.1,155.7. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.1,173.9, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.1,178.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1137.5-1171.7.

* Copper slipped weighed by abundant supply and rising inventories, with LME stockpiles near six-year highs.

* LME copper stocks of 364,450 tons are the highest in almost eight years.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 16.2% from last Friday

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher, gaining 1.86% to settle at  Rs.325.4, supported by improving sentiment as investors bet on a possible easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strong economic data from China also added momentum, with the manufacturing PMI rebounding to 50.4, signaling a return to expansion and boosting confidence in industrial demand. Fundamentally, the market is finding support from tighter inventories and improving industrial activity. Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 2.3%, while China’s industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in early 2026, reflecting steady demand recovery. At the same time, supply-side disruptions, including earlier mine closures and delays, have helped underpin prices. However, the upside remains limited as concerns over the broader global economic impact of the conflict continue to weigh on sentiment. Looking ahead, the supply outlook is gradually improving. The restart of operations like Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at new projects are expected to keep the global market in a slight surplus, as projected by Goldman Sachs, even though demand growth remains steady. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest slipping by 0.44% to 1,806 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.320.1, with further downside toward  Rs.314.7. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.328.5, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.331.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 316.7-329.1.

* Zinc dropped as uncertainty over the duration of the Middle East conflict clouded the demand outlook.

* Japan's Mitsui Mining expects H1 zinc output rising 3.2% y/y

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.0% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices moved higher, gaining 1.44% to settle at  Rs.355.65, as supply concerns intensified following Iranian strikes on key Middle East producers. Damage to facilities operated by Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain has disrupted output, while partial shutdowns have further tightened supply. The ongoing conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have also restricted shipments to major markets like the U.S. and Europe, adding to market uncertainty. Fundamentally, the supply side remains under pressure. LME warehouse stocks have dropped sharply over the past year, and physical premiums have surged to multi-year highs, reflecting tight availability. Additional risks are emerging from Guinea, a major bauxite supplier, which is considering export restrictions. However, some of the supply concerns are being offset by rising global inventories and steady production growth, including higher output from China. On the demand side, cautious buying and concerns over global economic growth are limiting stronger upside momentum. Imports into China have declined, although domestic production continues to expand, keeping the overall balance mixed. Technically, the market is showing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 1.74% to 3,156 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.338.1, with further downside toward  Rs.320.6. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.364.6, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.373.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 348-358.8.

* Aluminium fell amid a stronger dollar and mounting concerns over a potential economic recession.

* The cash LME aluminium contract was trading at a steep $69 a ton premium over the three-month forward.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.4% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged slightly lower, slipping 0.21% to settle at  Rs.15,532, mainly due to expectations of increased arrivals in key markets like Erode over the next couple of weeks. The prospect of higher supplies, along with an increase in acreage supported by favourable rains, is putting some pressure on prices. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated to rise about 4% year-on-year, with production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes, though overall supply growth remains moderate. Despite this, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both domestic and export demand remain strong, providing a solid base to the market. Lower carry-forward stocks and reduced holdings by farmers and stockists are also supporting prices. Weather-related disruptions and disease issues have impacted yields in several regions, even as higher acreage is expected to lift overall output. Export trends remain mixed, with January shipments down year-on-year but cumulative exports showing marginal growth, indicating steady medium-term demand. Imports have declined sharply, reflecting reduced dependence on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 2.22% to 14,120 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.15,284, with further downside toward  Rs.15,034. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.15,962, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.16,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15018-16290.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15232.5 Rupees gained by 2.57 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged slightly higher, gaining 0.23% to settle at  Rs.22,065, supported by weather concerns in key producing regions. The India Meteorological Department has warned of rising temperatures in North Gujarat, which could impact seed development in late-sown crops and further reduce yields. Overall production is expected to decline by around 5% this year, with Gujarat witnessing a sharp drop due to lower acreage and weaker yields, although Rajasthan may partly offset this with higher output. Despite these supportive factors, gains remain limited as new crop arrivals have begun and are expected to increase steadily. Comfortable supplies and weak export demand are also weighing on sentiment. Export data highlights this trend, with both monthly and cumulative shipments showing a sharp decline, reflecting subdued global demand and sufficient domestic stocks. At the same time, risks such as erratic weather, pest attacks, and logistical disruptions continue to keep the supply outlook uncertain. While tight global supplies from other producing countries offer some support, lack of strong overseas buying is capping upside momentum. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 3.24% to 5,823 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.21,920, with further downside toward  Rs.21,780. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.22,290, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.22,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21780-22780.

* Jeera gains as India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for rising temperatures in North Gujarat.

* Severe heatwaves could impact the seed weight of the late-sown Jeera crop, potentially reducing final yield numbers.

* Production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22291.7 Rupees dropped by -0.03 percent.

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