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• Gold surged nearly 1% on Friday to close at a record high of $3,580 per ounce, capping a weekly gain of about 4%—its strongest in three months. The rally followed a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, well below forecasts of 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 and broadly in line with expectations. Beyond rate-cut speculation, gold was also supported by concerns over the Fed’s independence, rising political risks, and a steepening U.S. yield curve.

• Silver advanced toward $41 per ounce, its highest level since 2011, supported by falling real yields and a weaker dollar after soft U.S. jobs data boosted Fed cut expectations. Lower yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, adding momentum to silver. The macro tailwind coincides with a tight physical market, where rising industrial demand meets constrained supply. Strong demand is driven by solar, electric vehicles, and electronics, while supply growth remains limited, as most silver is mined as a byproduct. China’s solar cell exports surged over 70% in the first half of the year, led by shipments to India, further strengthening near-term physical offtake.

• Crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply in the last session following reports that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to accelerate production hikes. Sentiment was further pressured by concerns over U.S. economic growth following a weak payroll report showing only 22,000 jobs added in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, a ~4-year high. Still, the downside was limited by reduced Russian crude output, which continues to tighten global supplies. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries have cut crude-processing runs to 5.1 Mn bpd in the first 27 days of August, the lowest monthly average in more than three years.

• US natural gas futures slipped to $3.05 per MMBtu after touching a four-week high of $3.12 earlier in the session. The decline followed a broader retreat in energy markets as weak U.S. labour data dampened demand expectations. Despite the pullback, prices remained above August averages, reflecting firm underlying support. LNG exports from U.S. ports hit a record 9.3 tonnes, signalling a strong global appetite. European demand continued to drive shipments higher, adding to the bullish undertone. Capacity also expanded as maintenance ended at the Plaquemines facility

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold futures closed last week with strong momentum, gaining nearly 4% and sustaining a firm bullish trend marked by higher highs and higher lows. A decisive break above Rs 1,08,000 could open the way for further upside towards Rs 1,11,000–Rs 1,13,000 in the coming sessions, while immediate support is placed at Rs 1,04,000. The RSI remains in the overbought zone, indicating the need for cautious positioning despite the prevailing strength in trend.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Gold above Rs 1,08,000, with a stoploss below Rs 1,06,000 and targets of Rs 1,11,000 and Rs 1,13,000.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 1,07,730.

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver futures extended gains, closing last week higher by 3.6% and advancing nearly 10% over the past three weeks. The price trend remains firmly positive, with a breakout above Rs 1,26,300 likely to drive further upside towards Rs 1,31,000–Rs 1,34,000 in the coming weeks. On the downside, strong support is placed at Rs 1,22,000. The price continues to trade above both the 20-day and 100-day moving averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook, while the daily RSI is forming higher highs, signalling sustained momentum.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Silver above Rs 1,26,300, with a stop-loss below Rs 1,23,000 and targets of Rs 1,31,000 and Rs 1,34,000.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 1,24,700

MCX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude oil futures ended last week with a decline of 3.7%, extending the consolidation phase within a symmetrical triangle pattern visible over the past few weeks. The daily RSI also indicates a range-bound movement, reflecting the ongoing indecisiveness in price action. Immediate resistance is placed at Rs 5,800, while strong support stands at Rs 5,400. Currently, prices are trading close to the support zone, and a breakdown below Rs 5,400 could trigger further downside towards the Rs 5,100–Rs 4,900 levels. On the upside, any recovery will face hurdles near Rs 5,600.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 5,800, with a stop-loss below Rs 5,600 and targets of Rs 6,100 and Rs 6,300.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 5,572

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper futures are trading within an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a buildup for a potential breakout. The price is currently facing strong resistance at Rs 910, and a decisive move above this level could trigger a rally towards Rs 940–Rs 950 in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support is placed at Rs 883, which is expected to act as a cushion for prices. The daily chart shows copper trading above both the 20-day and 100- day moving averages, reinforcing the bullish structure. Overall, the setup suggests strength, with momentum favouring an upside breakout.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 910, with a stoploss below Rs 890 and targets of Rs 940 and Rs 950.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 897.