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The 2026/27 US soybean outlook indicates higher production and exports, with output forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, up 12 million bushels. Exports are increased by 25 million bushels, while ending stocks decline by 15 million to 300 million bushels. The US season-average soybean price is raised by $0.10 to $12.10 per bushel. Globally, oilseed production is projected at 721.9 million tonnes, down 0.3 million tonnes. Global soybean production is reduced to 442.5 million tonnes, while higher crushing and trade contribute to a 0.8-million-tonne decline in ending stocks to 123.5 million tonnes.

Key Highlights

• US soybean production forecast increased by 12 million bushels to 4.6 billion bushels for 2026/27.

• US soybean exports raised by 25 million bushels, while ending stocks reduced to 300 million bushels.

• US season-average soybean price increased by $0.10 to $12.10 per bushel.

• Global oilseed production declined by 0.3 million tonnes to 721.9 million tonnes.

•  Global soybean production reduced to 442.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks falling to 123.5 million tonnes.

The latest 2026/27 soybean outlook presents a mixed supply scenario, with higher US production and exports contrasting with lower global soybean output and inventories. US soybean production is projected at 4.6 billion bushels, an increase of 12 million bushels from the previous estimate. Meanwhile, global soybean production is reduced by 0.2 million tonnes to 442.5 million tonnes. The decline in global production, combined with higher crushing and trade demand, is expected to tighten overall soybean availability and support market fundamentals.

The increase in US production is primarily driven by higher yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska, partly offset by lower production estimates for Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas. US soybean exports are raised by 25 million bushels on larger supplies and a stronger early-season shipment pace. However, ending stocks are reduced by 15 million bushels to 300 million due to higher seed use and unchanged crushing demand. The US season-average soybean price is increased by $0.10 to $12.10 per bushel, while soybean meal remains unchanged at $340 per short ton and soybean oil declines by 2 cents to 68 cents per pound.

Globally, oilseed production is projected at 721.9 million tonnes, down 0.3 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Lower soybean, sunflowerseed, peanut and cottonseed production is partly offset by higher rapeseed output, particularly in Australia and Uruguay. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced by 0.5 million tonnes due to lower estimates for Russia and Argentina.

Global soybean crush and import demand are raised, particularly for Algeria, Colombia, Thailand and Japan. Export forecasts increase for the US and Argentina, partly offset by reductions for Ukraine, Uruguay and South Africa. Consequently, global soybean ending stocks decline by 0.8 million tonnes to 123.5 million tonnes, mainly due to lower inventories in the US and Argentina.

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