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The 2026/27 US cotton outlook indicates lower production, consumption and ending stocks. US cotton production is reduced by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales due to weaker yields, particularly in the Southwest. Consumption is lowered by 100,000 bales to 1.4 million, while ending stocks decline to 3.70 million bales. Globally, cotton production is reduced by over 470,000 bales to 117.5 million, while consumption falls by 335,000 bales to 122.7 million. Global exports increase marginally by 110,000 bales, while ending stocks decline slightly, reflecting a tighter overall supply outlook.

 Key Highlights

• US cotton production forecast reduced by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales for 2026/27.
• US average cotton yield lowered 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre.
• US cotton consumption reduced by 100,000 bales to 1.4 million bales.
• Global cotton production lowered by over 470,000 bales to 117.5 million bales.
• Global cotton consumption reduced by 335,000 bales to 122.7 million bales, while exports increased by 110,000 bales.

The global cotton outlook for 2026/27 indicates lower production and consumption, alongside a marginal decline in ending stocks. Global cotton production is projected to fall by over 470,000 bales to 117.5 million bales, while consumption is reduced by 335,000 bales to 122.7 million bales. Although lower production could provide underlying support to cotton prices, weaker consumption estimates indicate subdued demand conditions, potentially limiting significant price gains.

In the United States, cotton production is reduced by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales, primarily due to lower yield expectations. The national average all-cotton yield is lowered by 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre. The Southwest accounts for 250,000 bales of the production reduction, with regional yields declining by 5%. Production estimates for the Southeast and West are also slightly lower, while the Delta records a marginal increase. US cotton consumption is reduced by 100,000 bales to 1.4 million as mill use through September trails the previous year's already weak pace.

With these revisions, US ending stocks are projected at 3.70 million bales, down 100,000 bales from the previous estimate. The stocks-to-use ratio declines to 27% from 27.5%, while the season-average upland cotton farm price is lowered by 1 cent to 76 cents per pound.

 Globally, lower production estimates for India, Turkey, Argentina and the US outweigh higher output forecasts for Australia and China. Global exports increase by 110,000 bales as stronger shipments from Côte d'Ivoire and Egypt more than offset lower exports from Kyrgyzstan. Global consumption declines mainly due to reduced demand estimates for Bangladesh and the US. Ending stocks fall by just over 110,000 bales, with lower inventories in Argentina, the US and smaller exporting countries partly offset by higher Australian stocks.

 Lower global production and ending stocks could support cotton prices, but weakening consumption and sluggish textile demand remain significant concerns for the market.

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