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The 2026/27 US rice outlook indicates slightly lower supplies and ending stocks, with production reduced to 157.6 million hundredweight due to lower yields. US ending stocks are projected at 39.9 million hundredweight, while the season-average farm price declines by $0.10 to $15.10 per hundredweight. Globally, rice supplies increase by 0.7 million tonnes to 738 million tonnes, supported by higher beginning stocks and production in Argentina and Australia. Consumption declines by 0.6 million tonnes to 538.2 million tonnes, while global trade falls by 1.1 million tonnes to 60.2 million tonnes. World ending stocks rise to 199.8 million tonnes.

Key Highlights

• US rice production reduced to 157.6 million hundredweight due to lower yield estimates.

• US average all-rice yield declined by 4 pounds to 7,664 pounds per acre.

• US rice ending stocks projected 0.1 million hundredweight lower at 39.9 million.

•  Global rice supplies increased by 0.7 million tonnes to 738 million tonnes.

•  Global rice trade declined by 1.1 million tonnes to 60.2 million tonnes, while ending stocks rose to 199.8 million tonnes.

The global rice outlook for 2026/27 indicates higher supplies and ending stocks alongside declining consumption and international trade. Global supplies are projected to increase by 0.7 million tonnes to 738 million tonnes, while consumption is reduced by 0.6 million tonnes to 538.2 million tonnes. International trade is also forecast to decline by 1.1 million tonnes to 60.2 million tonnes, reflecting reduced export expectations from India. Rising global inventories and weaker trade demand could limit upward pressure on international rice prices.

In the United States, the 2026/27 rice balance sheet indicates slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic consumption and exports, and marginally reduced ending stocks. Production is revised downward to 157.6 million hundredweight following lower yield estimates in the November NASS Crop Production report. The average all-rice yield is reduced by 4 pounds per acre to 7,664 pounds. Consequently, projected US ending stocks decline by 0.1 million hundredweight to 39.9 million. The season-average farm price is also lowered by $0.10 per hundredweight to $15.10, entirely due to reduced California medium- and short-grain price expectations.

Globally, higher beginning stocks in Nigeria, Bangladesh and Thailand, combined with increased production in Argentina and Australia, contribute to the upward revision in supplies. However, consumption estimates are reduced by 0.6 million tonnes, mainly due to lower demand projections for Bangladesh and several African countries. Global rice trade is lowered to 60.2 million tonnes, primarily because of reduced Indian exports. This reduction highlights the importance of India's export availability in determining international rice trade flows.

World ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.3 million tonnes to 199.8 million tonnes, largely driven by higher inventories in India.

Higher global inventories and declining consumption and trade indicate a relatively comfortable supply outlook, potentially limiting significant gains in international rice prices.

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